| Thomas Gass. 6th January, 2006 - 5:13 am
 In the eyes of fans, writers, and fatalists alike, Saturday’s match-up between the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars is nothing more than an opening act for the real show: Indy vs. New England. Sad thing is, while bemoaning a lack of respect has become a perennial New England tradition as of late, it is the Jaguars who should be playing the role of Aretha Franklin as they’ve been given zero credit for what they’ve accomplished this season. Look no further than the ridiculous opening line listing the Pats as 8 ½ point favorites.
The Jaguars quietly had a very good season, going 12-4 and winning their last three games to inch into the playoffs. With the eleventh-ranked offense and fifth-ranked defense in terms of DVOA (all DVOA and DPAR totals are through Week 16 and can be found on FooballOutsiders.com), the Jags have been one of the most consistent all-around teams in the NFL. And they’ve been doing it without their star players down the stretch run: QB Byron Leftwich was knocked out of the Week 12 contest against Arizona with a broken right ankle and Fred Taylor, fresh off a strong 2004 campaign, only played 11 games in 2005. In fact the Jaguars enter Saturday’s game with five men on the IL: Leftwich (questionable), RB Greg Jones (out), RB Fred Taylor (out), WR Jimmy Smith (questionable) and DE Reggie Hayward (questionable).
But what the Jaguars lacked in health in 2005, they more than made up in resiliency. Super-sub QB David Garrard stepped in for Leftwich and proceeded to put up 1100+ yards with four passing TDs, three rushing TDs, and a 19.8 passing DPAR (4.9 rushing) in six games. To put perspective on how efficiently Garrard filled in for Leftwich his 13.1% DVOA (which isn’t negatively affected by the lack of games played like DPAR) ranks 11th out of the 46 QB to attempt at least 100 passes this season. While the Jags couldn’t effectively replace a healthy Fred Taylor, the Taylor-Jones-Toefield triumvirate accounted for 11 rushing touchdowns, in limited time, for this predominantly passing team.
As consistent the offense was this season, the Jaguars true strength was their defense; sixth in the league in total defense (per pro-football-reference.com) and tied for the superlative Colts’ defense for fifth in defensive DVOA. Despite allowing 22 passing TDs (22nd in the NFL), the Jags’ pass defense was 6th in the league with a -16.3% DVOA, thanks in part to their 19 INTs (8th in the NFL) and low receiving yards allowed (7th in the NFL.). Conversely, their run defense, despite allowing only 4 TDs (!) all season (first in the NFL), was a slight grade above mediocrity, ranking 14th in defensive DVOA. This was due in large part to a “stuffed rank” value of 21% that was 27th in the league. Stuffed rank is “percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down.” (Courtesy of Football Outsiders). Make no mistake though; this is a tough team to run against. They were fifth in the league in first downs or TDs allowed in third- or fourth-down situations with less than two yards to go.
The Patriots enter the playoffs as the most overrated or underrated (depending on where you live and who you listen to) team in the league. While the Jaguars boast an impressive résumé of walking wounded, 2005 was The Year of the Injury Bug for the Pats, having lost key members Rodney Harrison, Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Ted Johnson (who retired out of injury), Corey Dillon, Matt Light, Randall Gay and about 150 (97 of which were DBs) other players to some form of injury. Of course, in typical New England puritanical frugality, the Patriots kept chugging along, plugging in anybody that could walk and read a playbook on their way to a 10-6 season and another AFC East championship. That they won the division says more about how weak the AFC East was this season than how well the Patriots could adapt and continue at such a high level. Make no mistake: this is the weakest Belichick-led Patriots team ever. The Pats have been plagued all season long by terrible defense (especially by the pre-Bruschi MLB corps) and predictable offense (due, in large part, to the disappearance of Corey Dillon’s ability to run a football). At times the Pats looked like the “Patsies” of old; unexecuted plays, mindfarts on defense, lack of a strong ground game, etc. But, then again, at times they could look downright scary (the Tampa Bay game, the annihilation of the hapless Jets) to the point where they do come off as a championship-caliber team.
While the team has been dreadfully inconsistent all-around, two players saved this team from playing golf in January: Tom Brady and Deion Branch. While Brady gets all the recognition, all the MVP talk, and the rail-thin supermodel girlfriend, without Branch emerging as a reliable receiving option game-in and game-out Brady’s heroics wouldn’t have happened. (Not when the only other receiving option was David “I inherited Mark Blount’s Hands of Stone” Givens.) Of course Brady himself was no slouch: he finished the season second in QB DPAR, behind Carson Palmer, while putting up career numbers in passing yards and yards per attempt. But without Branch (who ranked 12th in the NFL in receiver DPAR), this would have been one lacking offense.
The key to game for the Jaguars on offense is to pick on the Patriots through the air and establish a deep ball early. One of the problems the Patriots had earlier this season was adjusting from short-coverage defenses to playing against the deep ball. Often times the Pats would come out with a mid-range defense to mask the lack of a strong middle, leaving the corners in one-on-ones with receivers. Not only did this create size problems when facing bigger and stronger receivers, but the corners were also left flat-footed as receivers got behind them for easy completions. As evidenced in the Indianapolis game, the best way to beat the Pats is to challenge them deep, let the receivers run fly patterns, wait for the lapse in coverage and gun it deep. Of course it helps to have an accurate deep-ball thrower and luckily Jacksonville has two. Either Garrard or Leftwich is capable of making these kinds of plays.
Defensively, the Jags need to harass Brady by blitzing from different angles as much as possible. While Brady has been one of the least-sacked QBs in the league, the offensive line has allowed him to be one of the most-hit QBs in the league. Brady has a knack for evading pass rushers and finding time to allow a play to unfold; this is the key to the Patriots success offensively. Aside from Branch, the Patriots receivers have had trouble getting consistently open. In order to stop the Pats from benefiting from defenses breaking down, the Jags need to pressure Brady into quick passes, take away his deep ball (which has shown up quite impressively this season), and tighten the coverage. The left side of the line, manned by fellow rookies Logan Mankins and Nick Kaczur, has been susceptible to weak-side blitzes. The Jags need to attack here.
In order for the Patriots to win, this game needs to be dictated on their terms, which means preventing trading punches with the Jaguars offensively (something that bit them in the backside against Indy; they don’t have the weapons to consistently score), slowing down the tempo, forcing the Jaguars to beat them on the ground (where they ranked 12th in defensive rushing DVOA), and applying pressure to whichever QB starts the game. The Pats need to avoid third-and-short situations like they’re the plague; teams have been tiring out the defense by keeping drives alive long enough to catch the Patriots in a defensive lapse for an easy score.
Offensively the Patriots need to hang on; this is going to be a defensively-dictated game. Brady needs to cut down on the receiver-dropped passes by not forcing the ball into coverage; regardless as to how accurate and strong he is, he’s been relying too much on these attributes and not enough on heads-up passing and a great deal of his jammed passes are bouncing off the receivers’ hands straight into the defenders’ hands. The execution needs to be short, simple, and effective. The Jags have trouble defending the run, so the Pats must establish a strong ground game behind Dillion, setting themselves up for enough short-yardage situations that Brady can operate efficient passes. The deep ball isn’t going to work here; the Jags secondary has been stingy in this regard all season and throwing one consistently is going to produce too many turnovers.
Since the game is in Foxborough and the weather calling for sub-zero temperatures and a potential for snow, the Pats may just get a little help from Mother Nature in slowing the game down enough to win.
Prediction: Patriots 20-17 |
