| Jeff Risdon. 20th June, 2006 - 12:46 am
 Last season: 12-4, Wild Card round loss
Coming: LB Nick Greisin, CB Brian Williams, WR Randy Hymes
Going: WR Jimmy Smith, S Deke Cooper, LB Akin Ayodele, CB Kenny Wright
Rookies of note: TE Marcedes Lewis, RB Maurice Drew, LB Clint Ingram
What I like:
One of the best DLs in football, strong against both run and pass. Very good starting secondary with size and strong cover skills, and Brian Williams is an upgrade at a position of strength. Byron Leftwich at QB is a natural leader and has a cannon for an arm. If Fred Taylor stays healthy, the Jags have a deep, versatile RB corp with lots of talent. Solid if unspectacular OL that plays very aggressively, and T Khalif Barnes has a chance to make the Pro Bowl. LB Mike Peterson and SS Donovan Darius are impact playmakers. Above average special teams, and ace ST Nick Sorenson returns after injury.
What I dislike:
The top two offensive playmakers, Leftwich and Taylor, are both highly injury-prone. Losing WR Jimmy Smith leaves a major void. Remaining WRs are either slow (Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams) or highly inexperienced (Matt Jones, Randy Hymes). OL has zero depth and 3 starters returning from tough injuries. Significantly more difficult schedule; the Jags played just two games in the last 3 months of last season against teams with winning records and got blown out in both. Teams that didn’t fall behind them early were very successful at running the ball.
Best case: The Jags play up to their tougher schedule. The secondary dominates and the DL improves at stuffing the run. Leftwich finds new deep threats and stays healthy. Maurice Drew answers the PR/KR question. G Chris Naeole and T Khalif Barnes both play at Pro Bowl levels. The positive TO ratio keeps up, and some of those defensive TOs get converted into scores.
Worst case: Slow start against tougher competition. Fred Taylor disrupts the locker room, and the youngsters can’t fill the void on the field. The LBs struggle again against the run and covering backs and TEs. Any OL injury, esp. to Barnes, is crushing. The secondary doesn’t force TOs, and the front four doesn’t consistently generate pass pressure or sacks.
Prediction: No chance they’ll go 12-4 again, but there’s too much good talent and coaching to fall too far. A repeat of 2004, when they went 9-7 is more likely. I like the intangibles on this team and most key players are hitting their prime years, so I bump that up to 10-6 and fighting until the end for a playoff berth.
Jeff Risdon's other 2006 Team Previews
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams |
