| Jeff Risdon. 28th June, 2006 - 3:35 pm
 Last season: 5-11
Coming: DT Larry Triplett, WR Andre Davis, TE Robert Royal, QB Craig Nall, C Melvin Fowler, G Tutan Reyes, WR Peerless Price
Going: DT Sam Adams, WR Eric Moulds, S Lawyer Milloy, G Lawrence Smith, T Mike Williams
Rookies of note: DT John McCargo, S Donte Whitner, CB Ashton Youboty
What I like: The secondary has lots of talent, both in coverage and in run support. Both Whitner and Youboty will play a lot and be upgrades over whom they replaced at S and nickel back, respectively. Terrence McGee and Nate Clements are as good in coverage as any pair of CBs in the league. The right side of the OL is strong, and RB Willis McGahee is solid enough to use it to his advantage. All Pro LB and team leader Takeo Spikes returns, and he has some proven talent alongside him at LB. TE Royal is a nice signing, as was DT Triplett, who fits much better in their scheme than the departed Adams. WR Lee Evans has shown glimpses of being an elite player. Their special teams, namely P Brian Moorman and KR Roscoe Parrish, are among the best.
What I dislike: The QB situation, which is a 3-way battle between JP Losman, Craig Nall, and Kelly Holcomb. Not one of them should be more than a seldom-used backup. Losing WR Moulds, the Bills’ best player over the last decade, puts a great deal of pressure on Evans to be a star right away. Peerless Price is back, but he was horrible during his time away, and this cast of QBs isn’t going to help him rebound. Depth at WR, TE, RB, LB and OL is almost nonexistent. The LT/LG/C positions are all well below average, particularly in pass protection. The DL was brutal vs. the run, and both newcomers have issues: Triplett is undersized, and McCargo was a huge reach in the 1st round. As much as I respect Marv Levy, he’s done nothing to quell the chorus of “out of touch” since his return as GM.
Best case: McGahee plays like an All Pro for 16 games, and Evans is a legit star from Week 1. One of the QBs (likely Nall) steps forward, seizes leadership of the offense and becomes a respectable starting QB. Spikes rebounds from his Achilles injury and reenergizes what was a very tough defense in 2004. The secondary forces lots of turnovers and holds opposing passing attacks in check. This team can win low-scoring, field position battle-type games. If the front 7 on D can hold their own against the run, and the QB and WRs make some plays, they’ll be in that situation enough that they learn how to win and develop confidence.
Worst case: None of the QBs emerge, and the roulette lasts all season. The OL does not solidify, which renders McGahee ineffective and puts even more pressure on the wobbly QB situation. The DL fails to improve on being next to last in run defense, and DE Aaron Schobel drops off in sacks. None of the 1st day defensive selections pan out right away and the secondary falters even a little. None of the WRs steps up as a weapon at #2 or slot receiver. The Bills were devastated early when Spikes was injured last season, and that culture of hapless losing will come right back with any early adversity.
Prediction: If this team had an above average QB, it could eke out a .500 season. They don’t, and they won’t. All their games against opponents of their caliber are road games, and they’ll be lucky to steal more than the one road win they got in 2005. They should be the front-runner for the Brady Quinn sweepstakes in the 2007 draft by finishing 3-13.
Jeff Risdon's other 2006 Team Previews
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams |
