| Jeff Risdon. 11th July, 2006 - 10:04 pm
 Last season: 10-6
Coming: CB Lenny Walls, RB Quentin Griffin, Head Coach Herm Edwards
Going: WR Chris Horn, FB Tony Richardson, LB Shawn Barber, CB Dexter McCleon, QB Todd Collins, WR Marc Boerigter, Head Coach Dick Vermeil
Rookies of note: DE Tamba Hali, SS Bernie Pollard
What I like: Great veteran OL with future HOFers Will Shields and Willie Roaf both returning for one last shot. RB Larry Johnson broke out last year, and this year he assumes fulltime duty, plus he is no longer in the coaching doghouse. There aren't 3 better weapons in the league than Johnson. Tony Gonzalez is still an elite TE. The youngsters (LB Derrick Johnson, DE Jared Allen) on defense improved the run D to 4th (adjusted) from 27th, and the draft added needed depth and muscle. QB Trent Green remains one of the most underappreciated talents, a savvy, accurate veteran and the only QB with a rating above 90 each of the last 4 seasons. There is depth at RB and OL. New HC Edwards is a proven motivator and has had success with lesser talent than he’s got here. They snagged a favorable schedule; nearly all their difficult non-division games are at home, where they are significantly better.
What I dislike: Still no big play wideouts, though it’s not as big an issue for them as with many other teams thanks to Gonzalez and Johnson. They’re going to miss FB Tony Richardson’s blocking and pass catching, not to mention his leadership. The DL is not a strength, and 1st rounder Hali is considered a project by many. They don’t generate much pass rush, and their LBs are not great blitzers. The secondary still appears weak in pass coverage, and all their depth is very young or coming off major injury. The kick and punt coverage units were awful, and K Lawrence Tynes lacks the big leg. KR/PR Dante Hall was a major letdown after two superb seasons, and he’s expected to be more involved in the offense, which raises the chances he won’t be as effective on returns once again.
Best case: Johnson runs wild once again, behind a still-dominant line. Green finds comfort with the WRs, and Gonzalez gets back to scoring 10+ TDs. The new additions on defense make positive impacts in the pass rush and underneath coverage. The special teams respond to the new coaching and being stocked with better athletes. LB Johnson keeps growing into an All Pro, and Jared Allen can log another double-digit sack total.
Worst case: The pass defense still stinks, and it begins to affect the stout run defense. Green, Gonzalez, the stud OL and WR Eddie Kennison all start to show their age. The return and kick coverage units continue to struggle, and the team consistently loses the field position battle. Larry Johnson can’t handle the rigors of being a fulltime feature back, and his backups are ineffective. They cannot afford to lose any games they should win, and there are potential pratfalls early that could derail the entire season with a loss.
Prediction: This is basically the same team that went 10-6 last year, only a little older in key spots. They’re aware the window of opportunity is nearly closed on their core group, and they have a new coach who can use that to their advantage. If they can ratchet up the pass defense and kick coverage/return to 18th or better this team should secure a Wild Card or possibly even the AFC West, and they’re capable of winning at least one playoff game. I don’t think it will be quite that good, but they’re a playoff team. 11-5, a Wild Card, and a very tough playoff out.
Jeff Risdon's other 2006 Team Previews
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams |
