| Jeff Risdon. 25th July, 2006 - 3:42 pm
 Last season: 4-12
Coming: G Larry Allen, WR Antonio Bryant, CB Walt Harris, QB Trent Dilfer, WR Bryan Gilmore, S Sammy Davis
Going: LB Andre Carter, WR Brandon Lloyd, CB Ahmed Plummer, LB Julian Peterson, FB Fred Beasley, WR Johnnie Morton
Rookies of note: TE Vernon Davis, LB Manny Lawson, DE Parys Haralson, WR/KR Brandon Williams, RB Michael Robinson
What I like: Getting future HOFer Larry Allen was a strong move, as was bringing in veterans Dilfer and Harris. All three will contribute as much in the locker room and mentoring roles as they do on the field, and that is badly needed on this team. Vernon Davis should be an immediate impact receiver, and Antonio Bryant is a strong deep threat coming off a 1,000 yard season. RB Frank Gore has shown, when healthy, that he’s a capable feature back, and his backfield mates Kevan Barlow and Maurice Hicks provide solid depth and versatility. QB Alex Smith can only improve, and Dilfer’s tutelage should accelerate his development. The OL has great size and could be a strength if G Jeremy Newberry returns from injury and their recent draft picks come to fruition. Derek Smith is a Pro Bowl LB, and rookie Lawson has loads of potential as a pass rusher. K Joe Nedney is very solid and consistent in a tough place to kick. Head Coach Mike Nolan got the players in his corner and kept the atmosphere positive during a losing year.
What I dislike: Look up at the coming/going list. Every player in the “going” column is superior to their corresponding player in the “coming” column. And that’s from a miserable 4-12 team who named their kicker team MVP. The offense was dead last, and the adjusted pass offense was dead last by a wider margin than the differences between the NAACP and the KKK. Alex Smith could improve 100% and still be a below-average starting QB. Antonio Bryant has talent but he quickly burns bridges wherever he goes. The best players on offense—Newberry, Allen, Gore, WR Arnaz Battle—all have major injury issues. Other than CB Shawntae Spencer, the secondary is poor, particularly in pass coverage. The DL is among the league’s worst, and it’s best player (DE Bryant Young) is 5 years past his prime. Their youngsters on defense are still a year or two away from making a huge impact. And you won’t read this from anyone else, but I am of the opinion that marquee rookie Vernon Davis is going to be a major bust, and this team needs him to be its best weapon from day 1.
Best case: Smith makes a giant leap forward and Gore stays healthy and puts up 1200 yards behind a cohesive, physical line. Davis and Bryant provide downfield threats and make plays with the ball after the catch. The youth movement at LB and DL arrives early, and the pass rush goes from anemic to steady. The secondary stays healthy and figures out how to cover more than one WR, and the back 8 (they run a 3-4) don’t whiff on so many tackles. They win their early winnable games and hit the bye in week 7 at 3-3 and build on that to stay within sniffing distance of .500 at the end of the season.
Worst case: Alex Smith still stinks, and Dilfer winds up starting 7 games. The WRs struggle and Davis fulfills my bold prediction as a flop. The veteran linemen really show their age and don’t hold up. The secondary continues to flounder and the tackling doesn’t improve. The pass rush still only comes from Young or from blitzing multiple LBs, exposing their thin and underwhelming back 8. If they’re only 1-5 hitting their bye week, they could very well not win more than 1 more game.
Prediction: Last season I called the 49ers the least talented team I’d ever seen, and they overachieved to win 4 games. This team should be better offensively, but still isn’t any better than about 25th unless Alex Smith makes the biggest improvement in league history. I keep looking at their schedule and trying to figure how they win more than 3 games, but I can’t. They finish a disappointing 3-13, but they should get markedly better in 2007 with a good draft.
Jeff Risdon's other 2006 Team Previews
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams |
