| Jeff Risdon. 2nd August, 2006 - 5:13 am
 Last season: 8-8
Coming: DE John Abraham, S Lawyer Milloy, T Wayne Gandy, S Chris Crocker
Going: OT Kevin Shaffer, S Brian Scott, DE Brady Smith, S Kevin McAdam, T Barry Stokes, WR Dez White, WR Brian Finneran (injury)
Rookies of note: CB Jimmy Williams, RB/KR Jerious Norwood
What I like: Adding a premium DE like Abraham makes a solid defense even stronger, as does the return of MLB Ed Hartwell from injury. Abraham, DE Patrick Kerney, DT Rod Coleman, LB Keith Brooking, and Hartwell are all Pro Bowl caliber performers in the front 7. I really liked Jimmy Williams at VA Tech, and pairing him with near-elite CB (and fellow Hokie) Deangelo Hall gives them potentially as good a pair of CBs as anyone. This defense has more talent than the 2004 unit that dominated at times and took the team to the NFC Championship game. The new safeties, Milloy and Crocker, are better than the guys they are replacing, though that’s not saying much. RB Warrick Dunn still has life in his legs and he and Pro Bowl TE Alge Crumpler are both excellent check-down receivers. QB Michael Vick is still a major weapon with his legs, and the Falcons have installed an offensive system that should take advantage of his skills. They have excellent depth and versatility at RB, and the DL and secondary both have improved depth. Backup QB Matt Schaub could start for many teams. A good OL returns 4 starters and has some intriguing young depth. The special teams coverage units are outstanding.
What I dislike: With all that talent on defense, the Falcons consistently stink at stopping the run, particularly when they are trailing in a game. The corners are terrible in run support and it remains to be seen how much the aging Milloy can fill the giant hole at SS. The one starting OL they lost, Kevin Shaffer, was their best run blocker; newcomer Gandy is a major downgrade at creating running lanes for Dunn and Vick. Ah yes, Vick at QB. He’s got a cannon arm, Olympic sprinter speed and acceleration, a capable line, an outstanding TE and a couple of young WRs with great potential in Mike Jenkins and Roddy White. Despite all those advantages, he’s woefully inaccurate and still struggles with all the intangibles of the position. Things like reading coverages, picking up blitzes, looking off his receivers, giving up on hopeless plays, checking down to alternate receivers, and putting soft touch on short throws are all foreign concepts to Vick. Losing WR Brian Finneran is a major blow, because they desperately lacked depth beforehand and he was the one wideout Vick trusted. While the CBs have talent, both Hall and Williams will give up the big play, and nickelback Jason Webster pretty much lives in a toaster. The kick and punt return teams were awful and are depending on rookies to change that. It’s also open auditions for kicker, never a good sign for a team that plays in a dome. The schedule makers did the Falcons no favors with 3 division games to start and a brutal final 5 games: @WAS, @TB, DAL, CAR, and @PHI. All those teams figure to be their competition for playoff spots.
Best case: Vick finally lives up to the billing as the “next Steve Young” and becomes as good a QB as he is in the Madden video games. The young wideouts catch and block well, and Crumpler remains a Pro Bowl TE. The pass rush generates 50+ sacks and it comes from all angles. The LBs and new safeties finally stop missing tackles and shut down power running games. Hall and Williams play as well as they talk at CB, and somebody else comes forward as capable of covering the slot or TEs. The pressure up front forces turnovers, and the Falcons convert those TOs into points. The OL stays healthy and remains great at run blocking. The return games improve to average or better, and they find a kicker capable of making a 45 yard FG in a dome.
Worst case: Warrick Dunn shows his age, and TJ Duckett doesn’t rebound from a lousy, injury-plagued season. Vick remains a musketman in a rifleman’s league and doesn’t have at least 10 more TDs than INTs. Any missed time by Crumpler, Jenkins, or White is devastating. The line misses Shaffer more than expected, and defenses can tee off. The run defense and perimeter tackling remain abhorrent, and the anticipated pass rush doesn’t put consistent pressure on opposing QBs. The return games don’t improve and the Falcons play from a distinct field position disadvantage.
Prediction: This is a definite sleeper team to put up 12 wins and make it back to the NFC Title game, as they seem prone to do right after disappointing seasons. If the defense gels and Vick (or Schaub) does as well, they’re the best team in the NFC. I’ll believe that when I see it. In the last 5 years, the Falcons have had seasons of 5, 7, 8, 9, and 10 wins. Last season they started 6-2 and finished 2-6. I’ll be shocked if they’re 6-2 this year, but the final 8 could look eerily familiar. A 6-10 finish and serious questions about the direction of the franchise are most likely, though there’s this nagging little voice that keeps whispering 9-7.
Jeff Risdon's other 2006 Team Previews
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams |
