| Jeff Risdon. 11th August, 2006 - 4:01 pm
 Last season: 4-12
Coming: QB Aaron Brooks, CB Duane Starks, DE Lance Johnstone
Going: DB Charles Woodson, QB Kerry Collins, DT Ed Jasper, NT Ted Washington, CB Renaldo Hill
Rookies of note: S Michael Huff, LB Thomas Howard, G Paul McQuistan, LB-S Darnell Bing
What I like: Randy Moss is still the best receiving threat in the game and new starting QB Aaron Brooks excels at the deep throws. If Ronald Curry can not snap yet another Achilles tendon and holdout Jerry Porter comes back into the fold, the Raiders have the dynamic speed and depth at WR to wreak havoc on secondaries. RB Lamont Jordan is a legit bruiser with decent hands and great speed for a big back. Brooks is capable of being a very good QB if given time and a strong running threat. The DL is solid with 2005 sack leader Derrick Burgess at DE and Warren Sapp and Tommy Kelly inside. P Shane Lechler is the best in the game. There’s a lot of young speed and potential in the secondary and at LB, led by rookies Huff and Howard, both of whom will start. Ditto that on the OL, where T Robert Gallery and C Jake Grove both have very high talent ceilings and rookie McQuistan has earned a starting nod. New Head Coach Art Shell should bring back personal accountability and the patented Raider toughness that was sorely missing under Norv Turner.
What I dislike: I hope you have a long attention span, because there’s a lot here to dislike. It starts at the top, with owner Al Davis, whom I simultaneously admire and loathe. He brought back Art Shell, who completely lost his last Raider team and failed to survive a mutiny from his assistants. The new offensive coordinator, Tom Walsh, has been out of football for years. Former head coach Norv Turner is widely regarded as one of the best offensive minds in football, yet they sputtered under him; Walsh has spent the last few years fly fishing. Aaron Brooks is a chronic disappointment at QB who makes terrible decisions despite having great physical tools. Jerry Porter is demanding a trade and almost certainly won’t take the field, and Ron Curry has major injury issues. The only other WR on the roster with any ability is Doug Gabriel, who only ever runs fly patterns. The OL does have some strong young talent, but it’s far from developed. The line as a whole is at least a season away from being a strength. They let their two best DBs, Charles Woodson and Renaldo Hill, both leave. The starting CBs are now 2nd year man Fabian Washington and rookie Mike Huff. Washington has great speed but weak cover skills and lousy instincts, and Huff is converting from safety. That’s not a recipe for short-term success. There are lots of character questions, or rather questionable characters, with the leaders of the team (Sapp, Moss, Brooks). Their LB corps is easily the worst in the AFC and will likely start two rookies, one of whom (Bing) is a natural safety. K Sebastian Janikowski is wildly inconsistent and another guy with character issues. The Riders have not finished above 20th in PR, KR, kick coverage or average field position in the last 4 seasons. There’s very little quality depth anywhere, and the Raiders are notorious for not taking time to develop young prospects to alleviate that problem. Rather than commiting to a full-blown rebuild and giving valuable experience to their younger players , they brought in past-their prime vets like Starks, Johnstone, and Brooks in a death-gasp attempt at winning now. Even the schedule is a major negative; the Raiders play 6 preseason games, then have to deal with three very strong divisional opponents, plus games against Super Bowl contenders Pittsburgh, Cincy, and Seattle.
Best case: Lamont Jordan rushes for 1600+ yards and the OL congeals quickly. Brooks makes a strong leap with his new team, and Randy Moss approves. The other WR situation resolves positively, and Jordan stops dropping so many passes from the backfield. The defensive front kicks it up a notch and is a devastating force. The youngsters at LB and DB play beyond their experience and ability, making solid tackles and forcing turnovers. They survive the brutally long preseason in good health and all buy into the Raider family mantra.
Worst case: We’ve pretty much seen it the last 3 seasons. Ineffective QB play, tons of nagging injuries to the top-tier talent, weak pass coverage, lousy special teams coverage and return games, underwhelming OL performance, an inability to produce turnovers or capitalize on the few they get.
Prediction: Last season all the pundits kept proclaiming the Raiders “the best lousy team in football”. This year they’re almost certain to be lousy again, but I doubt you hear the Pyrrhic praise. I do like a lot of their pieces, and a run at .500 isn’t out of the question. But with the 2 extra preseason games in which to get more injuries and a brutal schedule, this team is going to have to play near flawlessly to win more than 6 games. I see them being about 2-9 and then finishing strong, winding up 6-10.
Jeff Risdon's other 2006 Team Previews
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams |
