| Jeff Risdon. 23rd August, 2006 - 7:53 pm
 Last season: 9-7
Coming: S Marlon McCree, TE Brandon Manumaleuna
Going: QB Drew Brees, CB Jamar Fletcher, WR Reche Caldwell, G Bob Hallen
Rookies of note: LT Marcus McNeill, CB Antonio Cromartie
What I like: Their LB corps, even minus stalwart leader Donnie Edwards, is outstanding. Shawne Merriman was NFL defensive rookie of the year, and he got better every game. He’s already one of the most disruptive forces in the league. Steve Foley is an excellent cover LB, and Matt Wilhelm and Stephen Cooper are both emerging talents. If the disgruntled Edwards returns, they have great depth and versatility with their 3-4. The defensive front is strong and fits the scheme well. The Chargers features the best run defense last season and should remain in the top 5. RB LaDanian Tomlinson (hereafter LT) is the premier offensive talent in the league, and his backup Michael the Burner Turner is no slouch. Tomlinson is a threat to score on every play and is just as valuable in the passing game as he is running the ball. New starting QB Philip Rivers is a former top 5 overall draft pick who was outstanding in a similar style offense in college. The coaching staff felt comfortable enough with his progress to let Pro Bowler Brees go for nothing, and he’s looked sharp so far. TE Antonio Gates is a freak of nature and an excellent safety blanket for a young QB. The WRs don’t get a lot of publicity, but Eric Parker and Keenan McCardell are very effective veterans. The special teams, particularly the kicking game, are a big strength, though the injury to waterbug-like return man Darren Sproles hurts. Rookie T McNeill should be a line anchor for a decade, plus he’s one of the largest humans I’ve ever met. They get a much more favorable schedule this season than in 2005.
What I dislike: The Chargers have one gigantic weakness, pass defense. Newbies McCree and Cromartie should help, but the secondary as a whole is one of the 5 worst in the NFL. They don’t cover real well, don’t make plays often or force turnovers, and don’t help much in run support. They are highly dependant on blitzing LBs to create pressure to help them out; teams with strong offensive lines are going to be able to pick them apart downfield. The offensive line isn’t real strong, and it’s almost comically shallow. Their current 2-deep depth chart has the same guy (last season’s 7th rounder Scott Mruczkowksi) listed at #2 at 3 different spots. Statistically the line looks better than they are, thanks to LT being Superman way too often, but it’s no better than about 24th overall and that’s if McNeill is a stud from Week 1. It’s always tough to bring in a green young QB to a playoff-caliber team, despite Rivers’ pedigree. Head Coach Marty Schottenheimer has faced this twice before, and both times his teams regressed at least two wins. Schottenheimer himself is part of the problem too. Last season he proved once again he’s the best coach in the NFL in October and November, but strikingly overwhelmed after Turkey Day, when the games matter most. He and GM AJ Smith hate one another, and it’s hard to keep that contained off the field. There is scant depth at WR and a rookie behind Rivers at QB.
Best case: Rivers is at least as productive as Brees was in 2005, and none of the other skill players drop off. The line congeals better than the sum of its parts. The defensive front 7 remains one of the best and helps compensate for a shaky secondary. The special teams consistently win the field position battle and play better in big games. Schottenheimer finally exceeds statistical probability and doesn’t lose 5 games despite thoroughly outplaying the opponent once again, as he seems to do every year.
Worst case: Rivers isn’t ready, and he never develops a covalent bond with Gates or the WRs. LT becomes worn down, and the line remains a muddled mess. The secondary once again offers little, and the LBs don’t quickly adjust to the blocking schemes thrown at them.
Prediction: It’s awful hard to look at this team and not see “playoffs”; a premier defensive front 7, the best RB and TE in the game, great kicking game, highly regarded young QB. Of course they had all that last season and choked away a playoff berth. I foresee a dominating run defense and a more methodical offense that takes some pressure off the iffy secondary. They should win every non-divisional home game, and really only have two road games where they should lose--Cincy and Seattle. Notice I used the word “Should”. This team “should” go 11-5 or even 12-4. I’m guessing they will find a way to lose a game or two they “should” win and finish 9-7 and again be saddled with the dreaded “best team not to make the playoffs” label.
Jeff Risdon's other 2006 Team Previews
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
New York Giants
Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis Rams |
