| Jeff Risdon. 30th August, 2006 - 8:58 pm
 Last season: 9-7
Coming: G Steve Hutchinson, G Artis Hicks, RB Chester Taylor, K Ryan Longwell, LB Ben Leber, FB Tony Richardson
Going: QB Daunte Culpepper, RB Michael Bennett, S Corey Chavous, CB Brian Williams, WR Nate Burleson, WR Koren Robinson, G Toniu Fonoti, LB Sam Cowart
Rookies of note: CB Cedric Griffin, LB Chad Greenway is injured for the season
What I like: The Vikings had a major weakness and they addressed it. The middle of their offensive line was a disaster in 2005, but the return of Pro Bowl C Matt Birk from injury and the two new Gs turn a weakness into a potentially dominating strength. Steve Hutchinson is one of the 3 best Gs in the game, and Artis Hicks is a proven solid starter. QB Brad Johnson might be old, but he’s a winner and the team responded to him last year. The Vikings have two strong cover CBs in Antoine Winfield and Fred Smoot, though Smoot played awful in 2005. There’s a lot of young talent on the defensive line, and the unit improved steadily. K Ryan Longwell is an upgrade. FS Darren Sharper is still an above average playmaker and leader. They have versatility and depth at RB, and I like Chester Taylor as a feature back. I like their TE packages; Jermaine Wiggins might lead all TEs in receptions in 2006. They jettisoned the questionable characters and selfish talents that never put the team over the top, and the cleansing refreshment is tangible in the locker room. New Head Coach Brad Childress has initiated an overdue culture change, and he knows how to maximize his personnel from his offensive coordinator days. They play in a weak division and drew some winnable road games from the schedule makers.
What I dislike: There is not as much talent on this roster as there has been in years, particularly at the skill positions. With the loss of Koren Robinson, that moves every WR two slots on the depth chart above where they belong, as they were already one spot too high for their skill level. This is one of the weakest linebacking groups in football, and the loss of 1st rounder Chad Greenway is a major blow. They also lost projected starter Tank Williams at SS to injury already. QB Johnson is nearly 38, with a weak arm and a beaten body. He’s smart, he’s very accurate on short passes, and he’s won a Super Bowl, but with this group he’s being asked to make plays and make players better. That’s more than what Brad Johnson can do. His backups are Tarvaris Jackson, a rookie from a school you’ve never heard of, and Mike McMahon, an inaccurate panic scrambler. CB Smoot is an emotional confidence player, and last season he was beaten like the proverbial rented mule. Last year I noted how comparatively short their entire defense was, and that hasn’t changed. The young DEs have not lived up to expectations, though I’m higher on them than some pundits. Lots of new faces from the front office to the line of scrimmage make for some painful adjustment time.
Best case: The new OL becomes a force, Johnson stays comfortable and effective, Taylor breaks out as a 1200 yard RB, the WRs step up to the challenge, the DL produces consistent pressure, and the DBs force turnovers. They keep most games close and win kicking battles.
Worst case: Johnson shows his age or gets hurt, the youth on defense doesn’t show much improvement and struggles to stop the run and the screen pass, Smoot repeats his 2005, Chester Taylor isn’t ready for prime time, and WR Troy Williamson doesn’t emerge as a legit threat. The team closely resembles the unit that was 2-5 last year, not the one that won the next 6 games.
Prediction: There is talent on the Vikings, but I’m not sold on how it all comes together, especially on defense. They weren’t as awful as their bad start in 2005, but not near as good as their mid-season string of victories would indicate. Their last 4 games of 2005 they went 2-2, thumping playoff-bound Chicago but losing to weak Baltimore. There’s a lot more of that type of seemingly unpredictable outcomes coming in 2006. I can envision them being 8-8 at best, perhaps 9-7 again if the weaker teams at the end of their schedule are submissively lousy. They’re likely to be 2-5 again, but in 2006 they won’t have any great turnarounds. I predict 6-10, with a couple of head scratching wins and bafflingly inept losses. |
