| Jeff Risdon. 1st September, 2006 - 1:23 am
 Last season: 13-3, lost AFC Championship game
Coming: WR Javon Walker, DE Kenard Lang, LB Nate Webster, WR David Kircus
Going: RB Mike Anderson, DE Trevor Pryce, WR Ashley Leile, TE Jeb Putzier
Rookies of note: RB Mike Bell, TE Tony Scheffler, QB Jay Cutler
What I like: Look up; 13-3 last year and not many changes. Exchanging Walker for Leile makes the team better, as Walker is a much more reliable deep threat and a better overall player if he’s healthy. Walker and Rod Smith are an excellent WR pairing. Their starting LBs are as skilled as any in the NFL, and they’re all in their prime years. The defensive front does its job very well, freeing the LBs and DBs to blitz and make the plays. The corners are very strong, led by Champ Bailey, who is a top 5 overall CB. They’re also young and fairly deep in the secondary, though S John Lynch is 35 and starting to show it in coverage. The entire OL returns intact and the Broncos are renowned for their zone blocking run scheme. They also added depth on the OL that seems to perfectly fit their style, which is scheme-oriented rather than player-centric. QB Jake Plummer has solidified himself as a very good NFL starter, and he spreads the ball around as well as anyone. What made him special last season was his ability to not spread it to the defense as much. He’s now got an exciting backup/competitor in 1st rounder Jay Cutler, who has looked fantastic in camps and preseason action. They still have reliable K Jason Elam. They still have underappreciated mastermind Mike Shanahan as their coach. They still play in one of the best home-field advantages in pro sports.
What I dislike: The Broncos lost their offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, and their feature RB, Mike Anderson. They’ve been churning out 1000+ yard seasons with a barrage of previously unheralded RBs for years, but I’m not sold they can do it without Kubiak. The new starting RB is undrafted rookie Mike Bell, who has a history of fumblitis and lacks breakaway speed and acceleration. Behind the two good starting WRs there is next to nothing; David Kircus couldn’t stick with his hometown Lions, but he’s the apparent #3 wideout in Denver. The Broncos demand their WRs and RBs all be excellent blockers, yet I cannot recall ever seeing Walker or Kircus or RB Ron Dayne make a good block. Plummer showed he still gets the yips when the tide turns against him, as it did in the playoff loss. He tries to do too much, and if he hasn’t learned to curb that already, he never will. There’s a fair chance a mid-season QB controversy could develop if Plummer isn’t outstanding or if the team is struggling. The Broncos generate almost no pass rush without blitzing multiple LBs and/or DBs, and they let their one legit pass rushing DE (Pryce) leave. Both the OL and DL are relatively small. That size issue is exacerbated by the logical counter-attack to a team that relies heavily on blitzing: pounding the ball up the middle and throwing short, quick passes into the freshly vacated holes. The Broncos struggle at that offensively, and it’s worse for their defense. They play a fairly difficult schedule and have the bull’s-eye on their backs, especially in their division in which they went 5-1 in 2005.
Best case: The offensive system keeps working; Plummer keeps the turnovers to a minimum; the DL is able to generate a pass rush; the 3 starting LBs remain an elite unit, the young CBs show improvement and make plays. They win their two early season tests (KC, @NE in weeks 2-3) and carry that momentum through the easy part of their schedule in October. Their last game is at home against weak SF: the Broncos would love to have already clinched playoff seeding and rest some older regulars.
Worst case: The “heretofore anonymous RB becoming a 1200 yard rusher” well runs dry; Rod Smith, C Tom Nalen and John Lynch all look like the 35+ year olds they are; Plummer is no more than +5 in TD/INT ratio; teams figure out how to attack their blitzkrieg defensive style, and the Broncos DL and young CBs don’t adjust well. Injuries to any starting LB (esp. Al Wilson) and/or Bailey or Lynch are devastating.
Prediction: I’m going against the grain on the Broncos this year. Most pundits have them winning at least 11 or 12 games and challenging for the Super Bowl once again. Though that could very well happen and not surprise me, I just don’t see it. They get a brutal 7-game stretch from Oct 29th (IND) to Dec 10th (@SD), and then get CIN on X-Mas Eve. They’ll have to win at least 5 of those games to make the playoffs, possibly 6. The Broncos are good, but not that good, and both KC and SD are better. Denver winds up 9-7 and on the outside of the playoffs.
You might think that’s crazy. I’ll remind you I was flamed beyond belief last year when I picked both Cincy and Washington (and, ahem, Baltimore) to make the playoffs, and picked the Jets and Eagles (and, ahem, Denver) to collapse. The way I see it, some teams have to fail to meet expectations, and the black cloud on my forecast is stationary over Denver. |
