| Jeff Risdon. 6th September, 2006 - 6:26 pm
 Last season: 5-11
Coming: RB Edgerrin James, G Milford Brown
Going: DT Russell Davis, KR/PR Reggie Swinton, QB Josh McCown
Rookies of note: TE Leonard Pope, G Deuce Lutui, QB Matt Leinart
What I like: The Cards have the best offensive skill position (QB/RB/WR) package in the NFL. WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Bolden are each proven capable of 100+ catches, 1000+ yards, and 20+ combined TDs. QB Kurt Warner isn’t his old MVP self from a few years back, but he’s still got a very good arm and hits his receivers in perfect stride. New RB Edgerrin James gives the Cards a big-time threat running the ball, something they have lacked for years. He’s also a very strong receiver and excellent in pass blocking. There’s excellent depth behind James, and stud rookie Leinart provides a QB of the future who may be ready in the present. S Adrian Wilson is in the top 3 at his position, an excellent blitzer who is also very strong in coverage. K Neil Rackers had the greatest PK season in NFL history last year, and his strong leg on kickoffs and FGs is a huge asset. LB Karlos Dansby is a playmaker and excels against the off-tackle runs. 2nd year CB Antrell Rolle showed good promise as a rookie before he was injured, and he has great size and tackling ability. DE Bert Berry is a premium pass rusher, and DT Darnell Dockett has flashed brilliance at times. The Cardinals move into a fantastic new stadium with all the perks sorely absent at Sun Devil Stadium. It seems trivial, but great water pressure, huge lockers with comfortable chairs, on-site and state-of-the-art training facilities can make a huge difference; just ask the Dallas Mavericks.
What I dislike: All those outstanding offensive weapons might go to waste behind one of the worst OLs in football. Only LT Leonard Davis is an adequate starter, though both LG Scott Wells and C Alex Stepanovich do figure to improve to that level. The unit is better at run blocking, though badly struggles against 3-4 defenses because they lack the quickness to make the downfield blocks. The DL besides Berry is mediocre, and Dockett is coming off a lousy finish to last season. Lots of injury history impairs both lines. The pass coverage by CBs other than Rolle is very weak, and whoever lines up at FS next to Wilson will rank among the bottom 3 at his position. There’s very little talent at LB besides Dansby, and he plays hot and cold way too much for someone with his physical skills. There’s almost no depth anywhere on DL, LB, DB, TE, or OL, not that would be easily replaced by guys from other teams’ practice squads. The starting TE is rookie Leonard Pope, a giant man who hates to get hit and dropped lots of balls in college. Both Warner and James have lots of mileage on their bodies; even though James is only 28, his best years are almost certainly behind him. This team had aspirations of the playoffs last year and flopped, and is one of those teams in the “disappointing” column nearly every season.
Best case: The OL improves to average and the offense will lead the league in scoring; more consistent pass rush from the defensive front and the timely blitz helps the thin pass coverage; Edge James puts up 1400+ yards and enables the Cards to control the clock once they lead, something they’ve struggled with for decades; Rackers comes close to last year’s fantastic season. They handily beat out St. Louis for 2nd place in the NFC West, and steal the last Wild Card spot by harnessing the excitement and momentum of the new stadium and increased home field advantage.
Worst case: The run defense doesn’t remain in the top half, and the pass rush fails to consistently disrupt the passing game. The OL doesn’t give Warner (or Leinart) time to find all the weaponry, and they struggle to eat clock while ahead. The playmakers on defense don’t get any help, the offense struggles in the red zone, and Rackers falls back to the pack of PKs. Another lost season in the desert, except this time they at least have a nice place to fall.
Prediction: I had them mentally penciled in at 6-10 until I studied the schedule a bit. Some of the games where they look to be underdogs are actually pretty favorable matchups for the Cardinals and what they do well, like throwing downfield to multiple receivers and making plays off the defensive blitz and DE pass rush. So long as they can finish +5 or better in turnover margin, they’re no worse than 7-9. I think the positive effects of the great new stadium and energized fans counters the negative effects of being chronic underachievers and losers. The Cards finish 9-7, with a fair shot at the #2 NFC Wild Card. |
