| Jeff Risdon. 7th September, 2006 - 3:36 pm
 Last season: 10-6, lost NFC 2nd round
Coming: WR Brandon Lloyd, WR Antwaan Randle El, DE Andre Carter, S Adam Archuleta, CB Kenny Wright, RB TJ Duckett
Going: LB Lavar Arrington, S Ryan Clark, TE Robert Royal, QB Patrick Ramsey, S Matt Bowen, G Ray Brown, CB Walt Harris
Rookies of note: None figure to play more than mop-up duty
What I like: Bringing in the two veteran WRs, Randle El and Lloyd, gives the Skins a potent, if short, 3 WR set. The other WR, Santana Moss, established himself as a big play receiver and did so despite having almost no help on the other side. Randle El will provide a huge boost to the punt and kick return games. RB Clinton Portis is a bruising runner capable of 1500+ yards and 10+ TDs, and the Skins upgraded his backups by bringing in TJ Duckett to complement Ladell Betts. That RB combo is among the best and deepest in the league. The OL has two outstanding tackles in Jon Jansen and Chris Samuels, and RG Randy Thomas is an above average lineman as well. The defense has ranked 4th in adjusted performance each of the past two seasons and excels at stopping 3rd down conversions. LB Marcus Washington is a near-elite LB who can stuff the run and cover backs and TEs in the passing game. The secondary is full of hitters, and #1 CB Shawn Springs is among the top 5 at his position in coverage. There is depth at safety and the position upgraded by bringing in Archuleta, a headhunter with great blitzing ability. QB Mark Brunell is a cagey veteran who can still fling an excellent deep ball and avoids mistakes. TE/H-Back Chris Cooley is a great weapon and good blocker. The team isn’t afraid to use all kinds of different offensive sets, which keeps defenses off balance. The Redskins gave up fewer 1st downs via penalty than any other team. Head Coach Joe Gibbs is in the Hall of Fame for a reason; the man knows how to coach what he’s got.
What I dislike: Brunell is 36 and has an uncanny history of playing in 10-game streaks, alternating from Pro Bowl-caliber to worthy of holding a clipboard. He hit the end of his great play sometime between Week 16 and the playoffs, where he was awful in both games. The defensive front is one of the worst in the NFL, generating almost no pass rush and not consistently stuffing the run. New DE Andre Carter has never come close to his 2002 breakout, and he’s on the downside anyways. The WRs are all under 5’10”, and the Skins play in a division with outstanding secondaries. The injury bug has already hit hard: both Portis and Springs, the two best players on the team, will miss at least the first 2 weeks. Their injuries are the type that linger and affect performance all season. The offensive tackles, Jansen and Samuels, have played entire seasons together just once (last year), and G Thomas broke his leg last year. The rest of the line is weak and there is zero depth. Without Springs, the CBs are all playing 2 spots above where they should be on the depth chart. Backup QB is abysmal, and Brunell is a guy with a lengthy injury history too. Aside from Washington, the LB corps is unimpressive and very inexperienced. Much like the Dolphins in 2005, the Redskins started iffy but finished on a tear. But that tear involved beating up on weak teams or teams with nothing to play for.
Best case: The new additions blend in well at provide more consistent offensive punch; Brunell shakes his streaky history and plays strong all year; the OL and DL both establish physicality and discipline; Portis and Springs return to form from their injuries; the defense remains tough and forces turnovers, and the special teams win the field position battles. The Redskins have the ability to win their division and perhaps a playoff game or two.
Worst case: Those existing injuries portend more problems to come, and neither Springs nor Portis are at 100% all season; Brunell is either hurt or ineffective, and backups Todd Collins and Jason Campbell are as awful as they showed in camp and preseason; the lack of size at WR becomes an issue; the safeties don’t help much in pass protection; a lack of discipline that has plagued this team in the past resurfaces. This team can also come in last in the division and struggle to equal the 6-10 record of 2004.
Prediction: I was ahead of the curve in picking the Redskins to make the playoffs in 2005, and I was real bullish on them headed into the preseason. But the injuries to Portis and Springs are a real red flag, and though Brunell and I share a birthday and a fraternity, I’m not confident he’ll have another strong season. I see them leveling off at 8-8, but if Springs or Brunell miss significant time they’ll not win more than 6 games. |
