| Jeff Risdon. 25th July, 2007 - 3:10 pm
 Last season: 13-3, lost in AFC Divisional Round
Coming: RB Willis McGahee
Going: RB Jamal Lewis, G Ed Mulitalo, LB Adalius Thomas, DT Aubrayo Franklin, T Tony Pashos, FB Ovie Mughelli
Key Rookies: G Ben Grubbs, FB Leron McClain, LB Antwan Barnes
What I like: Any time a team goes 13-3 and dominates a pretty strong division, there’s clearly a lot to like. Replacing Jamal Lewis with Willis McGahee at RB brings more speed and versatility to the offense, though it will require an alteration to the blocking scheme. QB Steve McNair started all 16 games and threw a better ball as the year went along, clearly getting more comfortable with both the offense and his WRs. When the Ravens switched from Jim Fassel to Rick Neuheisel at offensive coordinator the team really started loosening up and making more big plays. TE Todd Heap is an elite talent who commands loads of attention from LBs and safeties, and the Ravens look like they finally have enough talent at WR to take better advantage of it. Demetrius Williams and Mark Clayton both appear poised to break out, and veteran Derrick Mason still has some of the best moves and hands around even though he’s clearly on the downside. Jonathan Ogden (if he doesn’t retire) is still an above-average LT who just swallows speed rushers and seals the edge as well as anyone. The rookie blockers, Grubbs and McClain, are physical thumpers who will both get lots of scuffs on their helmets every week once they become regulars. Their entire OL is gigantic, with C Mike Flynn the smallest at 6’3”, 308 pounds.
Despite losing do-everything Adalius Thomas, the Ravens still boast a very impressive defensive front 7. Haloti Ngata, Kelly Gregg, and Trevor Pryce are an ideal DL for a 3-4: powerful, aggressive, run stuffers who have enough agility to make plays in the backfield. Ngata in particular looks like a perennial Pro Bowler. Ray Lewis is still patrolling at LB and leading the defense, even though he’s lost at least one step and gets suckered more than most LBs. He is the definition of a spiritual leader and his teammates still respond to him. Bart Scott and Terrell Suggs are very good complements to Lewis at LB, and there’s no better free safety in football than Ed Reed, a dominant playmaker in the secondary. Matt Stover, the last remaining original Raven, is still an elite kicker at 38.
What I dislike: The offensive line lost its two top run blockers in Pashos and Mulitalo. It’s not as devastating as it would be for most teams, but it is still a downgrade and the unit lost its snarl. It could be argued they lost the 4 most physical players on the offense, an offense that thrived on slugging you in the mouth and then toasting you when you’re groggy. McGahee has not been as productive as his reputation would have you believe, and he’s not a good guy to have around when things aren’t going well. McNair’s overall physical condition is always a question mark, and he no longer has the outside-the-pocket agility or arm that made him an elite QB. None of the backups in the backfield has lived up to expectations, and the young WRs the team is dependant upon have yet to show the needed consistency or playmaking ability.
The biggest weakness on defense is in pass coverage. Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle are both beyond their primes (Rolle much moreso) at CB, though McAlister can still be an excellent #1 CB in stretches. Every CB behind him is playing at least one spot higher on the depth chart than they should be, and if there’s a chink in Ed Reed’s armor, it’s over-the-top deep coverage. This is where losing Adalius Thomas will really hurt, as none of the remaining LBs are any better than pedestrian in pass coverage. The defensive depth has fallen off, and almost all the key players (Lewis, Suggs, McAllister, Pryce, Gregg, Reed) have a lot of mileage on them. Their PR and KR games are huge questions, though their coverage units are just fine.
Best case: All the fresh faces blend seamlessly into their roles; McNair stays upright and above-average for one more year; the DL continues to dominate and allow the LBs and Ed Reed the freedom to gamble and make big plays; the corners turn back the clock and provide better coverage; they survive one of the most brutal finishing schedule stretches imaginable (@SD, NE, IND, @MIA, @SEA, PIT) with enough wins to keep playing and relatively good health. There is enough here for a deep playoff run.
Worst case: Last year almost every question regarding the Ravens was answered positively. If more goes wrong than right in terms of health, level of play of new starters, emergence of young impact vets, kicking and special teams, and running back, the Ravens are primed for a big fall. The potential is certainly there for many things to go wrong, and this is a crew that hasn’t always responded well when faced with early adversity. Head Coach Brian Billick (note: I mistyped his name as “Brain” 4 times, but it fits) is well respected and a proven winner, but most of the key components here have heard everything he’s got to offer and might not respond anymore.
Prediction: In the last 4 seasons the Ravens have won 10,9,6, and 13 games. If you ignore the volatility of the last two seasons, you have a team with the talent and track record of a 9 or 10 win team. Because of the sum of their net losses and the brutal finish to the schedule, I’ll peg the Ravens for a 9-7 season and a Wild Card if they’re lucky in the tie-breakers; the Week 2 game with the Jets could wind up deciding a playoff spot. |
