| Jeff Risdon. 7th August, 2007 - 4:33 pm
 Last season: 3-13, last in NFC North
Coming: DE DeWayne White, T George Foster, RB Tatum Bell, RB TJ Duckett, WR Shaun McDonald, CB Travis Fisher, G Edwin Mulitalo, QB JT O’Sullivan
Going: CB Dre Bly, WR Mike Williams, QB Josh McCown, DE James Hall, S Terrance Holt, G Rick Demulling, TE Marcus Pollard, CB Jamar Fletcher
Key Rookies: WR Calvin Johnson, DB Gerald Alexander
What I like: With emerging star WR Roy Williams, NFC receptions leader Mike Furrey, and super-prospect rookie Calvin Johnson, the Lions feature a lethal package of WRs. Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz knows a thing or two about using dynamic wideouts and unheralded QBs to put up potent offensive numbers. Williams was one of the best WRs in the NFL last season when he was healthy and he’s only getting better. QB Jon Kitna showed great toughness and tenacity last season. His accuracy and mobility are better than advertised. The new additions at RB and on the OL should bolster an anemic running game. A healthy Kevin Jones would help even more, as he is a dynamic big-play rusher and an outstanding receiver out of the backfield. Duckett can only help the worst short-yardage attack in the NFL; he’s a powerful bruiser with quick feet.
The defensive front 4 has the potential to be one of the most dominant units in football. DTs Shaun Rogers and Cory Redding are both elite gap penetrators who command loads of attention. Redding emerged as a franchise player in Rogers’ absence last season and was often unblockable at under tackle. When Rogers has been healthy and motivated he’s one of the 5 best tackles in the game. DEs White and Kalimba Edwards have shown strong edge rushing ability at times and are entering their peak years. LB Ernie Sims led the Lions in tackles as a rookie and has looked much quicker and more fluid in camp so far. He’s a devastating hitter who excels in pursuit. Fellow LB Boss Bailey showed strong ability in pass coverage, though he struggles to stay healthy and gets mauled in the run game. The Lions feature one of the best P/K combos in Nick Harris and the ageless Jason Hanson. There is a feeling of genuine excitement and positive momentum in camp, not unlike what helped spring the 49ers to great improvement in 2006. They also catch a break from the scheduling Gods, as they get a lot of their tougher matchups at home and they match up fairly well with a lot of their nondivisional foes (read: teams with QB issues and/or lousy pass defense).
What I dislike: The passing offense had better be explosive, because this defense is going to be near the bottom. Even though the Tampa-2 style defense run by Coach Marinelli emphasizes the DL, of which the Lions have a pretty good one, it also requires strong, versatile play from the safeties and OLBs. The Lions do not have much talent at those spots other than Ernie Sims at OLB and young Daniel Bullocks at free safety. But the biggest problem lies at CB. The departed Dre Bly might not have been a good fit, but Bly still had great ball skills and made opposing QBs wary. The starters at CB, apparently Fernando Bryant and Travis Fisher, are underperformers that would be nickel backs on most teams. Fisher at least offers solid run support and understands zone coverage, so there’s a chance he’ll be solid. The other CBs are Stanley Wilson and Dee McCann, both of whom have loads of speed but little proven skill. Years of ignoring the defense with premium draft picks have left the unit with little top-end talent and lousy depth. This is not a unit that is going to force lots of turnovers or rack up a lot of 3-and-outs.
Speaking of 3-and-outs and turnovers, there’s the offense. Their system is a high-risk, high-reward style that goes for big plays and quick scores. Unfortunately that also means a lot of turnovers and very short rests for the defense. Kitna is prone to forcing the ball into coverage when he’s pressured, and the line in front of him is one of the worst pass protection units in the league. LT Jeff Backus and C Dominic Raiola both get pushed around a lot more than they push, and they’re easily the top returning linemen. Bringing in retreads, castoffs, and injury reclamations is not a good way to build an OL, but that’s been how GM Matt Millen has operated for the last few seasons. Kitna’s backup is JT O’Sullivan, who has been cut repeatedly by teams with worse QB situations than the Lions. Starting RB Jones is coming off a serious foot injury, while newcomers Bell and Duckett each have a lot more disappointment than accomplishment at this point in their careers. The team often looked lost in 3rd and short situations and in the red zone on both sides of the ball, an indication of a lack of playmakers. Though the team upgraded at some positions, they still lack the quantity and versatility of playmakers (particularly on defense) that most other teams have in place.
Best case: The high-flying potential of the passing game sets the tone for an exciting, efficient attack; Kitna throws for at least 10 more TDs than INTs; the RBs put up over 4.5 yards per carry and show the ability to grind out short-yardage runs; the DL dominates to its full potential; the coverage steps up and forces more turnovers; starting the season with victories in two winnable games (@OAK, MIN) gets the ball rolling and the confidence flowing. If the turnover margin and sack margin are both positive, this team has a chance to fulfill Kitna’s bold prediction of 10 wins. A very slight chance.
Worst case: These Lions don’t distinguish themselves from any of the other Millen-era Lions teams--an undertalented, poorly coached, bumbling collection of underachieving players who don’t know how to win. The truth hurts, my fellow Lions fans!
Prediction: This is the best overall team the Lions have fielded in at least 6 years, but it’s awful hard to overcome such a culture of losing, negativity, and ineptness. Their games should be entertaining, as they should be able to score but also not be able to sop most other teams from scoring either. I do like the way they match up with several non-divisional opponents, but I thought that last year about the Cardinals and it didn’t matter. Actually, these Lions might be a lot like those 2006 Cards--tangible progress towards being a decent team, but not enough talent in enough key spots to make a giant leap forward in the win column. Like those Cardinals, these Lions will finish 5-11 but feel pretty good about it next summer. |
