| Jeff Risdon. 13th August, 2007 - 4:52 pm
 Last season: 10-6, won NFC East, lost in NFC Divisional Round
Coming: WR Kevin Curtis, DT Montae Reagor, DT Ian Scott, LB Takeo Spikes
Going: QB Jeff Garcia, WR Donte Stallworth, DT Darwin Walker, S Michael Lewis, LB Shawn Barber, LB Dhani Jones
Key Rookies: LB Stewart Bradley, DE Victor Abiamiri, RB Tony Hunt
What I like: This offense is very strong, versatile, and seasoned. Led by Pro Bowl QB Donovan McNabb, the Eagles run the West Coast offense with great precision and confidence. McNabb displays outstanding poise, great accuracy on intermediate routes, and still has enough mobility to buy time downfield or scamper for a 1st down. He’s the unquestioned leader of the team and wears it well. McNabb is coming off his 3rd major injury in 3 seasons, however, which means the Eagles’ outstanding depth at QB could be a factor. Backup AJ Feeley knows the system well and knows his place well, while impressive rookie Kevin Kolb (hopefully) gets time to develop into McNabb’s successor. Handing the ball off to RB Brian Westbrook helps out any QB, as Westbrook has emerged as a legit feature back and is lethal in the open field. He also is an outstanding receiver out of the backfield, and the Eagles give him ample opportunities to display that skill. Picking up WR Kevin Curtis from the Rams should soften the blow of losing Donte Stallworth, while Reggie Brown is emerging as a very good wideout. Neither is a true #1 WR, but both make fine 1a’s and that fits the Eagles style well. The OL has two outstanding talents in RG Shawn Andrews and RT Jon Runyan, and the other 3 starters are all decent. The starters played all 16 games together last year, a freakish accomplishment. I like the young depth along the OL as well. TE LJ Smith is a very good receiver and short-yardage security blanket for McNabb, and he’s playing for his next contract, always a good motivator. The offense excels at sustained drives punctuated by explosive plays, and there is very good depth and versatility across the board.
The Eagles feature one of the best secondaries in football, led by elite safety Brian Dawkins. He’s not the speedy rover he once was, but Dawkins is still the complete package at the back of the defense, a hard-hitting ballhawk who can blitz, shut off the deep middle routes, and lock down TEs or backs flaring out. CBs Lito Sheppard and Shelton Brown are both real solid all-around corners who seem to alternate big games. DE Trent Cole has emerged as an elite edge rusher, and the Eagles do a great job of bringing pressure from different spots and disrupting passing lanes. The additions of Reagor and Scott at DT should help a porous run defense that ranked 30th in yards per carry on 1st down. Bringing in Takeo Spikes at LB should help as well, though it remains to be seen how much range he’ll regain after injuries. Rookie Stewart Bradley looks like a steal with great range and positional understanding. There is decent depth at every spot, as the Eagles have employed the draft strategy of taking the best player available regardless of position. It says volumes that the two most prominent names on the defense after Dawkins, DEs Jevon Kearse and Darren Howard, are probably the weakest cogs amongst the regulars. This team has been consistently good for years; the coaching staff knows what they’re doing, the leaders and veterans buy into the system and fit it well, and they know the window is closing on this group.
What I dislike: The biggest issue is run defense. The Eagles had loads of trouble stopping teams from pounding the ball in the G-T gaps last year. The fresh imports at DT and LB should help quell the tide, but what looks good in theory doesn’t always turn out that way in practice. The defense is counting on a lot of youngsters (Bradley, LB Chris Gocong, SS Sean Considine, DT and ’06 1st round flop Brodrick Bunkley) to play more significant roles. The talent is there, but how it translates and blends together remains to be seen.
McNabb has had trouble staying healthy the past few years, and his persona has grown increasingly random, as if he’s trying to be both Jack and Locke from Lost. He seems genuinely offended that the Eagles drafted Kolb and traded for vet Kelly Holcomb (whom I expect to be released or dealt before the season starts), as well as questioning the run-pass balance and departure of some vets. Yet McNabb alternately goes out of his way to praise his teammates and Coach Andy Reid and lead the Eagles family. How long the Eagles family can keep putting up with that, especially if the team starts slowly, is a big question. The lack of a proven #1 WR, or proven #3 or #4 wideouts, could hurt the team, especially early on while McNabb gets back to full strength. I have some concern that the team received some flukish career years from guys in the trenches on both sides of the ball, but their depth mitigates that concern.
Best case: McNabb merits legit MVP consideration; the Eagles go 5-1 or better in the NFC East and clinch early, to allow starters to rest and work in more of their depth; the youngsters on defense emerge as solid players and improve the run defense. They open with 4 eminently winnable games (@GB, WAS, DET, @NYG) and a September sweep would set them up as the pace-setter in the NFC. This team has the ability to win the Super Bowl so long as McNabb, Westbrook, and Dawkins remain healthy.
Worst case: Another season-ending injury to McNabb, and neither Feeley nor Kolb fill Jeff Garcia’s shoes; the DL continues to get pushed around; the special teams suffer under a new coordinator; no WR emerges as McNabb’s go-to guy; the team chemistry breaks down with a couple of early losses; the pass rush regresses; they sputter during the late rough patch of their schedule (@NE, SEA, NYG, @DAL, @NO in weeks 12-16) and it either kills momentum for the playoffs or costs them a playoff berth altogether.
Prediction: Last year I was one of the few who thought the Eagles were going to win the NFC East. I believe the 2007 Eagles are superior to last year’s version, and neither the Giants nor Cowboys are as good as last year. A tough schedule (in the NFC East every division game is tough) means they probably won’t hit my mental ceiling of 13-3, but 11-5, another NFC East title, and the potential to win every playoff game they play in is in the cards. The Week 16 game with the Saints is a preview for my pick for the NFC Championship game.
The author can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
