| Jeff Risdon. 20th August, 2007 - 2:46 pm
 Last season: 4-12, last in AFC North
Coming: LG Eric Steinbach, RB Jamal Lewis, DE Robaire Smith, NT Shaun Smith, CB Kenny Wright, OL Seth McKinney, OLB Antwan Peek, WR Tim Carter
Going:. RB Reuben Droughns, CB Daylon McCutcheon, WR Dennis Northcutt, G Joe Andruzzi, CB Ralph Brown, S Brian Russell, DE Alvin McKinley, FB Terrelle Smtih
Key Rookies: LT Joe Thomas, CB Eric Wright, QB Brady Quinn
What I like: Check out the player sections above; the net upgrade in overall talent level is staggering. Most people like to begin and end all conversations about the Browns with the prominent offensive rookies, but this team has very quietly assembled what could be a very good defense. The back 8 on defense (the Browns run a 3-4) is young, talented, and well-suited for the style that Head Coach Romeo Crennel wants to play. CB Leigh Bodden is perhaps the most underrated player in the NFL, a very good cover man and a legit #1 corner who is only getting better. If he can ever stay healthy he’s got some trips to the Pro Bowl in his future. 2nd rounder Eric Wright has wowed everyone in camp and should emerge as a very strong partner, with Kenny Wright providing a capable veteran presence at nickel back. The pair of safeties, SS Sean Jones and FS Brodney Pool, complement each other well. Jones is very stout in run support and shows an innate knack for timing run blitzes and blowing up screen passes, while Pool shows very good range and ball coverage skills as a center fielder-type rover. There is strong depth in the secondary. LB Kamerion Wimbley notched 11 sacks as a rookie and consistently proved a dominant force by the end of the season. He’s every bit as good as the far more heralded Demarcus Ware as a pass rusher and blows Ware away in run support. Fellow ’06 rookie D’Qwell Jackson (D’Qwell, Kamerion, Brodney, Robaire--this defense makes the spell checker go crazy!) proved a strong finisher and a good sense of anticipation. Paired with solid vet Andra Davis, one of the best 2nd-man-into-the-fray tacklers in the game, the Browns have a dynamic set of LBs who are only going to get better. Yet another 06 rookie, Leon Williams flashed playmaking potential and was the best player on the field the last two games. He should relegate tired veteran Willie McGinest into a mentorship role for which Willie is ideally suited. Both of the newcomer Smiths, particularly NT Shaun, up front are upgrades who fit the 3-4 DL concept of space-eating well. And despite his advancing age, NT Ted Washington still does a great job tying up two blockers and clogging running lanes. This defense has the potential to be one of the best in the league, and even if it falls short of that loftiness it’s still capable of keeping the Browns in every game. P Dave Zastudil is one of the best in the business as well.
Offensively the OL should finally be a strength. #3 overall draftee LT Joe Thomas is already drawing comparisons to future Hall of Famer Orlando Pace. G Eric Steinbach was the top free agent on the market and represents a huge upgrade, particularly in run blocking. C Hank Fraley and RT Kevin Shaffer are both solid starters who played better as 2006 progressed, and Fraley looks noticeably stronger this summer. The wild card is the potential return of LeCharles Bentley, who nearly lost his leg from a staph infection after suffering a knee injury on the first day of camp last summer. He was the premier free agent lineman of 2006, and if he comes back at even 80% of his old self, he makes this good line a great one. His ability to play G or C gives them versatility and depth, and even though he’s never been on the field for Cleveland in game conditions, Bentley is unquestionably one of the leaders of this team. Imagine the emotional impact of “Rudy” when Bentley runs out in front of the Dawg Pound. WR Braylon Edwards played quite well before injury, and has shown newfound maturity and dedication. TE Kellen Winslow is a dominating force, though once again he’s slowed by surgery for a knee problem that certainly appears chronically debilitating. Josh Cribbs is a flashy return man who will get to show his versatility (he was a college QB) in a slash-type role that will help ignite the offense. K Phil Dawson ranks in the top 10 all-time in FG accuracy and plays the Lake Erie winds adeptly.
What I dislike: The offense is filled with “what ifs” and lots of questions. Sure the line looks outstanding, but how quickly will they gel? Brady Quinn is going to be a very good NFL QB, but how much can he offer as a rookie who missed the first 3 weeks of camp? How close to his pre-injury self will Winslow ever be? Is Braylon Edwards the #1 WR who often looked uncoverable downfield with great hands, or is he the selfish, divisive, injury-prone flake who dropped a third of the balls thrown to him on 3rd down last year? How much does Joe Jurevicius have left as the other WR, coming off an injury that diminished his speed rating from “marginal” to “makes Mike Williams look turbocharged”? Can Jamal Lewis recapture the magic of his glory years under GM Phil Savage in Baltimore, or is he the lead-footed dancer that couldn’t get thru holes before they closed the last two seasons? Behind Edwards and Winslow, who else can get open and catch the ball? If Quinn isn’t ready early on, is either Charlie Frye or Derek Anderson able to rise above “that guy sucks” status at QB? Are any of the recent skill position draftees (WR Travis Wilson, RB Jerome Harrison, FB Lawrence Vickers, even Quinn) the legit NFL players the team needs to make an impact, or are they undertalented roster filler? How well and quickly will new Offensive Coordinator Rob Chudzinski pan out, considering the recent Browns have been the most unimaginative, plodding, disjointed units I’ve ever seen? Judging from recent history with the Browns, there’s a lot more “No” answers than positive outcomes in the cards.
It’s much the same story with the defense. Notice how many times I mentioned “potential” and “could be” above? Between injuries, youth, and facing a boatload of explosive offenses, the defense certainly has a lot to prove. It’s not a physically imposing unit and it’s not one that can handle lots of abbreviated drives and turnovers from the offense.
Best case: Brady Quinn develops into a franchise QB quickly, and Joe Thomas is as good as advertised; Jamal Lewis is inspired by playing on a one-year bargain deal; the OL shows strong cohesion and stays healthy; Edwards takes a giant leap forward at WR, and someone else steps up as a legit #2; the defense forces turnovers and plays to its potential, esp. the youngsters at LB and DB. Stealing an early divisional win or two (they get AFC North rivals PIT, CIN, and BAL all at home in the first 4 weeks) would keep the hole from getting too deep and could provide enough of a boost to finish 8-8 or even 9-7 if Quinn is great.
Worst case: The injury bug remains as virulent as last year; Quinn falls flat at QB and neither Derek Anderson nor Charlie Frye improve; Lewis is washed up and the other backs make the team yearn for the glory day of William Green; the DL winds up on their backs more often than in the backfield; the secondary struggles against deep routes once again; the revolving door at offensive coordinator keeps spinning, or the local media and fans pressure the team to fire Crennel, who has the trappings of a good coach but has not had a lot to work with. If this team doesn’t win at least 3 of its last 6 games, they’ll enter the 2008 offseason as one of the worst teams in the league and with no 1st round draft pick.
Prediction: The great basketball coach Chuck Daly once defined a pessimist as an optimist with experience, and that’s why I’m tempering my expectations for what could be a pretty good football team. The Browns have a lot of the requisite ingredients in place, but it’s going to take some time before they congeal into a playoff team. Look out for them at the finish of the season, where 5 of their last 6 games look like potential wins. Add how many of those last 6 they win to the 2 victories they’ll steal over their 1st 10 games, and there is your win total. I’ll settle on 6-10.
The author, a Cleveland native, can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
