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| Jeff Risdon. 21st August, 2007 - 2:03 pm
 Last season: 8-8
Coming: LB Ed Hartwell, C/G Alex Stepanovich, DT Michael Myers, DT Kendrick Allen
Going: G Eric Steinbach, DT Sam Adams, DT Shaun Smith, LB Brian Simmons, CB Tory James, WR Kelley Washington, S Kevin Kaesviharn, TE Tony Stewart
Key Rookies: S Marvin White, CB Leon Hall, S Chinedum Ndukwe
What I like: The passing attack is as good as any in the league. QB Carson Palmer is an elite talent with perfect fundamentals, and he’s ramped up his leadership and intensity for the better. Palmer is a legit MVP candidate. WR Chad Johnson talks a great game but backs it up on the field; he’s as difficult to cover as anyone, and once he catches the ball he is elusive and explosive. His partner TJ Houshmandzadeh is one of the best #2 WRs around, and a great red zone threat. They’ll miss Chris Henry during his 8-game suspension, but Palmer is the kind of QB who makes his receivers better, and there’s solid, speedy depth at wideout. RB Rudi Johnson is a consistent, physical back with good nimbleness for a large runner. He excels at following his blockers and then exploding off them. When they’re both healthy, Willie Anderson and Levi Jones make an outstanding pair of bookend tackles. Jones in particular is one of those linemen that never seems to get beat on a play, very consistent and well-rounded. The Bengals have a couple of promising young linemen that will take on bigger roles in Andrew Whitworth and Eric Ghiaciuc. This offense plays with a confidence and assuredness that few units possess.
In spite of perennially finishing in the bottom 10 in the rankings, the defense does have some promise. DEs Justin Smith and Robert Geathers both bring consistent pressure off the edge and never stop gunning for the QB. There is a lot of speed at LB, and young MLB Ahmad Brooks appears to have matured into a real force. The Bengals have a lot of young, athletic depth across the defensive front 7, though they clearly miss the troubled Odell Thurman and the injured David Pollack at LB. Solid drafting the past couple of seasons has brought in upgraded athleticism and promise in the secondary. K Shayne Graham has a very strong leg and gets the most out of kickoffs.
What I dislike: For being touted as a defensive guru, Head Coach Marvin Lewis sure has presided over some awful defenses in his Cincy tenure. This unit is potentially the best he’s had, but it’s probably not any better than middle of the NFL pack at its best. They have issues at CB, where they’ve spent their last two 1st rounders on Jonathan Joseph and Leon Hall. Joseph will probably emerge as a quality starter this year, but Hall has not impressed in camp or in preseason action. CB Deltha O’Neal is one of those all-or-nothing guys that frustrate teams; he makes a lot of big plays, but surrenders just as many to the other team, and he’s terrible in run support. The two best safeties on the team are 2nd-day rookies who are both far better in run support than coverage, not good when your CBs don’t cover real well. While the LB corps is solid, none of them are real playmakers, and newcomer Hartwell has struggled with bad injuries for years. The defensive front does one thing well--rush around the outside. They get pushed backwards far too easily in run defense and don’t tie up blockers well, which makes it harder on the LBs and safeties to make plays. For all the personnel shuffling they did in trying to fix the defense, the net talent flow appears negative. The neck injury to Pollack and the off-field issues that have flushed Thurman out of the league has gutted the depth on defense and robbed the team of two much-needed playmakers.
The retooled offensive line might be a real problem. They already lost their best run blocker in Eric Steinbach and the signal caller in Rich Braham. Neither starting tackle, Willie Anderson and Levi Jones, has even gone through light practice workouts by the middle of August. Both have injuries (particularly Willie Anderson) that could force them to miss several weeks. At minimum they will not be close to 100% at the start. That means loads of pressure on untested talent and no line cohesion. I worry more than most people about Rudi Johnson’s heavy workload, and his top backup (rookie Kenny Irons, who looked great) is already lost for the season. Nobody as more carries over the last 3 seasons than Johnson, and he runs with a style that absorbs a lot of punishment. Running behind a disjointed line won’t help, and the Bengals still pay very little mind to the TE position, where Reggie Kelly is just adequate and the cupboard is bare behind him. They’re going to miss Chris Henry’s explosiveness in the slot and his knack for finding the end zone. And God forbid if Palmer gets hurt; their backup QB is incapable journeyman Doug Johnson and the #3 is raw rookie Jeff Rowe.
Best case: Improved run defense and more big plays out of the secondary provide more balance; the passing game remains elite, with Chad Johnson and Houshmandzadeh combining for 175+ catches for 2300+ yards and 20+ TDs; Rudi Johnson isn’t affected by the years of wear and tear, and a legit backup threat emerges; the OL gels quickly; nobody gets arrested and Coach Lewis remains in firm control. The potential is here to win 12 games and a playoff game or two.
Worst case: The reformulated OL doesn’t hold up or open holes for Rudi Johnson; the youngsters in the secondary struggle in pass coverage and the smallish front doesn’t shore up the porous run defense. The Bengals could very realistically be 0-4 when they hit their bye week, and even though they could run off wins their last 7 games, that’s a real tall order. One more player getting arrested, even if it’s the long snapper, probably means doom on the field and the end of the Marvin Lewis era.
Prediction: This is a toughie. Everything the glass-half-full fans extol--the explosive offense, the pass rush, the improved secondary--it’s all true. But for some reason I’m pessimistic about this team. Maybe it’s the summer of mounting injuries. Perhaps it’s the brutal early schedule. But mostly, it’s because I believe in the laws of karma, and this team has simply accrued too much bad karma and now it’s time to pay. They could very well go 11-5 and win the AFC North and I won’t be shocked, but I can’t shake the vision of a disappointing 7-9 finish. |
