| Jeff Risdon. 24th August, 2007 - 12:51 pm
 Last season: 14-2, lost in AFC Divisional Round
Coming: Nobody of note
Going: LB Donnie Edwards, S Terrence Keil, WR Keenan McCardell, LB Steve Foley
Key Rookies: S Eric Weddle, WR Craig Davis
What I like: Any time a team goes 14-2 and brings back almost every starter, there sure is a lot to like. Reigning MVP Ladanian Tomlinson is coming off one of the greatest seasons ever by a RB. He’s a threat to score from anywhere on the field, an elite package of shiftiness, power, and vision. It’s unrealistic to expect a replication of his record-breaking 2006, but there is no reason he can’t lead the league in combined yards and touchdowns once again. He gets loads of help up front, as the Chargers sport one of the best offensive lines in the league. G Kris Deilman shunned a huge free agent payout to stay in San Diego, and his nastiness and leverage set the tone for the line. All the linemen play with good balance and footwork, and their combo of agility and toughness is a great blend. LT Marcus McNeill is one of the most agile giants (6’8”, 340) you’re ever going to see, and he was consistently outstanding as a rookie and will only get better. TE Antonio Gates is the best in the league at his position. His size, speed, and nimbleness make him a nightmare to cover, and he is a legit threat to lead the league in TD receptions. He gives young QB Philip Rivers a giant safety net. Rivers showed he can make all the throws in his first year as a starter, and he displayed better agility and improve ability than expected. Aside from Gates and Tomlinson (an outstanding receiver), Rivers has better weapons to throw to than most people realize. WR Eric Parker is a reliable performer who catches anything near him and runs great routes. Vincent Jackson is a huge target with great speed who got noticeable better as 2006 progressed. Rookie Craig Davis brings speed and big-play potential. They’ve got proven depth at every position but WR, and with offensive guru Norv Turner as the new Head Coach, the possibilities with this offense are staggering.
All that, and the defense has the chance to be just as dominant. NT Jamal Williams is the best interior gap defender in the league, a massive, powerful, agile technician who often beats double teams with ease. He’s flanked by DE Luis Castillo, an absolute beast against the run with great quickness. Castillo uses his hands to get free of blocks as well as anyone. OLB Shawne Merriman led the league in sacks despite missing 4 games due to a suspension for steroids. He’s unbelievably quick around the edge, but he has the strength to power inside. Merriman plays with an infectious tenacity and ferocity, and he’s perhaps the best outside pass rusher in the game today. The other OLB, Shaun Phillips, is also an accomplished pass rusher who excels at blowing up screens and draws. S Marlon McCree is a huge hitter and a reliable center fielder in coverage. The Chargers appear to have found a gem in rookie Eric Weddle, who has shown surprising athleticism and sure tackling. The starting corners, veteran Quentin Jammer and young Antonio Cromartie, are both physical marvels who are strong in coverage and good ballhawks. Jammer is outstanding in run support, which frees the LBs to take a more aggressive approach. K Nate Kaeding’s big leg earned him a Pro Bowl. He’s near automatic from inside 50 yards and his ability to get hangtime on long kickoffs is an asset. P Mike Scifres excels at directional punting, and waterbug-like return man Darren Sproles is a threat to score every time he touches the ball.
What I dislike: Despite the abundance of talent, there are a couple of major questions with the Chargers. The entire coaching staff has been replaced, and a lot of the new coaches have a lot to prove. Head Coach Norv Turner is an outstanding coordinator and developer of QBs, but as a head coach he’s ranged from inadequate to laughably overmatched. Defensive Coordinator Ted Cottrell has huge shoes to fill, though he is a proven success. The LB Coach, Ron Rivera, is not a 3-4 scheme guy and his positional responsibilities include the weakest part of the team. The new offensive coordinator is Clarence Shelman, who has nowhere near the track record or innovate prowess of his predecessor. So many new generals in charge of the troops often results in some transition problems. Turner is the antithesis of strong leadership, and any time a team has so much talent, fractures in leadership and locker room factions often develop without a dominating persona. Rivers, Tomlinson, Gates, and Merriman are all great talents, but only Merriman is the kind of natural born leader who can control a locker room, and his status is impacted by his positive steroid test and volatile personality.
The other big issue is the schedule. The Chargers first five weeks are CHI, @NE, @GB, KC, and @DEN. It’s not inconceivable that they start the season 1-4, and that would cast an overwhelming veil of doubt on the new coaches. They also get tough games with IND, @JAX, BAL, and @KC in consecutive weeks, another patch of games which all could wind up losses. This is not a group that has responded well to adversity in the past. Two years ago they missed the playoffs despite having perhaps the most talented roster in the league, and in 2006 they choked away a playoff victory to New England despite dominating the game. It will be very interesting to see how they respond to losing a game (or three) they should have won, or against an inferior opponent.
Best case: All the talent as so many spots continues to shine and stay healthy. The transition to a new coaching staff is relatively seamless, and Rivers benefits from the “Norv Turner Effect”, which Norv magically raises a QB rating by at least 10 points even if you stink. Winning 4 of the first 5 almost guarantees this team will win the AFC West and have a great chance to host every playoff game up to the Super Bowl. The talent is here to win it all.
Worst case: The biggest downer would be injuries to Tomlinson, Gates, or Williams--all are irreplaceable to this team despite good depth. This is not a team that is built to play in lots of close, field-position battle games (though it certainly can win those). Early losses, especially if the secondary keeps getting beat and the only offense is coming from Tomlinson and Gates, could cause a mutinous collapse that keeps the team from fulfilling its ample potential. Even with lots of adversity and normal injuries, this should still be a dangerous playoff team.
Prediction: A repeat of 14 wins is unlikely, not with a tough schedule and a firm bullseye on their backs. I do have larger concerns than most people that the recent failures and coaching changes are going to negatively impact this team. A fall to 9-7 or even 8-8 is not out of the question, as absurd as that might sound in August. But the ability to win games with either the explosive offense or a dominating defense makes this one of the best in the league. I see 11 wins and another trip to the playoffs, where they have the ability to win every game they play. I doubt they win more than one playoff game though.
Jeff can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
