| Jeff Risdon. 24th August, 2007 - 5:59 pm
 Last season: 7-9, 3rd in NFC South
Coming: QB Joey Harrington, WR Joe Horn, RB Arlen Harris, FB Ovie Mughelli, CB Lewis Sanders
Going: LB Ed Hartwell, DE Patrick Kerney, QB Matt Schaub, CB Jason Webster, G Matt Lehr, FB Justin Griffith, WR Ashley Leile, CB Kevin Mathis
*QB Michael Vick’s status is undetermined as of this point. This preview is written under the assumption he will not play in 2007 and his Falcons career is over
Key Rookies: CB Chris Houston, DE Jamaal Anderson, WR Laurent Robinson, G Justin Blalock, LB Stephen Nicholas
What I like:> The Falcons have some legit top-shelf talent on defense. Their LB corps is one of the best in the league, led by Keith Brooking. They have speed, tenacity, and good coverage ability, and Brooking is a proven veteran playmaker. CB Deangelo Hall probably isn’t as awesome as he thinks he is, but he certainly is a legit #1 CB and can dominate his half of the field at times. Drafting talented rookie Chris Houston allows Jimmy Williams to move to safety, where he should excel. Houston will have to suffer thru the growing pains that plagued Williams last season, but the secondary has loads of speed and promising youth. Lawyer Milloy is the other starting safety, and he’s a savvy veteran who still plays the run very adeptly. They have lots of depth in various stages of development. The defensive front has some talent as well. When he’s healthy DE John Abraham is a premier pass rusher. 1st rounder Jamaal Anderson has the potential to be just as good as Abraham and should help mitigate the loss of Patrick Kerney. DT Grady Jackson is a mountain in the middle, and once his counterpart Rod Coleman returns from a torn quadriceps, the Falcons have two veteran anchors who can control the line of scrimmage. There are a lot of big-play gamblers on the defense, and when they’re playing well and guessing right this is a formidable unit with lots of speed and youthful promise.
The Falcons have been one of the top rushing teams in the league for years, and even without Vick at QB they still have the pieces in place to run the ball quite effectively. RB Warrick Dunn remains a solid starter who cuts off blocks as well as anyone, and he’s an outstanding receiver out of the backfield. His backup Jerious Norwood is a lightning-quick home run threat with outstanding vision and balance. They’re both small but know how to use it to their advantage, and Dunn runs with surprising power between the tackles. The OL excels at run blocking and sustaining holes, though it remains to be seen how well they adjust to new Head Coach Bobby Petrino’s power scheme. G Kynan Forney and C Todd McClure are intelligent, well-rounded building blocks up the gut. Bringing in Joe Horn at WR should pay dividends. Young wideouts Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and impressive rookie Laurent Robinson will benefit from his mentorship, and Horn still has enough left in the tank to keep defenses honest. If that group ever plays to its potential, it’s an explosive group with good size and outstanding speed. TE Alge Crumpler has great hands and finds holes in zones very well, making him a reliable checkdown. He’ll miss Vick more than anyone though. Adding FB Ovie Mughelli is a smart move. He’s a tenacious blocker who locks up LBs very well.
What I dislike: The loss of QB Michael Vick to prison for dogfighting activities is a huge blow, both on the field and psychologically. While Vick lacked accuracy and often misread coverages, he was still a dynamic thrower with a huge arm that gave defenses fits. Last season he ran for over 1000 yards; most QBs don’t approach that in a 10-year career, and it provided the offense with a unique threat that made everything else they do better. Trading Matt Schaub, a quality backup who had the confidence of his teammates, looks awful in retrospect. Now the QB is Joey Harrington, who has failed miserably in his stints in Detroit and Miami. Harrington is one of those guys who possesses lots of tools but has a lousy toolbox and no mechanical aptitude. He’s not a leader of men and it’s proven he cannot handle pressure, from neither defenses nor internal forces. Backup DJ Shockley has been lost for the year to injury, which means the Falcons have nothing behind Harrington. Though there is good potential at WR, the two starters, Roddy White and Michael Jenkins, thus far have been disappointments in their careers. It’s certainly not a group that will make a QB look better. The new coaching staff is overhauling the run blocking, going from a zone scheme to a power attack. This is in spite of the fact the linemen are better suited for the former and the rushing offense has been wildly successful the past few seasons. It’s akin to putting snow tires on a Porsche. The defense is pretty solid, but it’s a unit that will give up big plays and isn’t capable of winning many 17-10 games.
The injury bug is biting hard already, never a good sign. DT Rod Coleman detached his quad on a Jet Ski in April and might not be back until November; WR Brian Finneran will miss his second consecutive season; RB Dunn is recovering from back surgery; WR Joe Horn has a chronic groin injury; TE Alge Crumpler is slowed by a bum knee; QB DJ Shockley, who was expected to get some regular-season snaps, is lost for the year; DE John Abraham is the kind of guy who misses two weeks when his Starbucks is too hot. In general the roster is chock full of guys who have spent a good part of their careers with injury trouble, and many of the key cogs are on the wrong side of 32, which is when physical decline really kicks in.
I’m also a skeptic when it comes to hiring coaches directly from college. Bobby Petrino was an excellent, innovative college coach at Louisville, but the NFL has spat back better college coaches than him (Nick Saban being a prominent example). It’s the same game in name only, and though Petrino has worked as an NFL assistant, the jump from the Big East to the NFC South is bigger for a coach than for players. Having to handle the face of the franchise being in prison certainly won’t help Petrino’s transition.
Best case: The team rallies around their fallen leader and new coach and plays with purposeful confidence; Harrington finally emerges as a legit starting QB; the LBs swarm and dominate, and the secondary comes up with more big plays than they surrender; the injury bug goes away; the young wideouts step up and play to their potential, giving the Falcons the ability to consistently beat you with the pass as well as the run; the special teams control field position and find a legit kicker. The Falcons have a very favorable schedule, particularly early on. Hitting their stride quickly will do wonders for this team and could parlay them into a surprise playoff team.
Worst case: The weight of losing their franchise leader buries them; having a rookie head coach who is changing previously effective schemes doesn’t go smoothly; no K better than Morten Andersen materializes; Joey Harrington is no better than his DET days, and the young wideouts continue to disappoint; Dunn loses a step; the injuries keep mounting and sap the depth and vigor. It’s not inconceivable that these Falcons wind up as the worst team in the league.
Prediction: All the issues and bad injury hits the Falcons have already absorbed lead me to believe this team will be a lot closer to the worst case scenario I laid out than the best case outcome. I’ve seen the Joey Harrington movie, as well as the rookie-from-college head coach movie, enough to know it’s a slow-developing horror flick and not a feel-good inspirational drama. I’m flagging the Falcons as a team that could be a major blockbuster sleeper, but I think the critics are right when they portend box office disaster. The Falcons bottom out at 4-12 but get the ability to draft a new franchise QB with a top-5 draft pick and make a quick turnaround.
The author can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
