| Jeff Risdon. 27th August, 2007 - 2:25 pm
 Last season: 9-7, lost in AFC Wild Card round
Coming: LB Donnie Edwards, LB Napoleon Harris, T Damion McIntosh, DT Alfonso Boone, S Jon McGraw
Going: T Jordan Black, WR/KR Dante Hall, G Will Shields, LB Kawika Mitchell, DT Ryan Sims, S Sammy Knight, DE Eric Hicks, CB Lenny Walls, K Lawrence Tynes
Key Rookies: WR Dwayne Bowe, RB Kolby Smith, DL Claude “Turk” McBride, K Justin Medlock
What I like: The Chiefs recently agreed to a contract extension with franchise RB Larry Johnson, which ends the drama surrounding the team’s best player. Johnson set an NFL record for carries in 2006 and is a bruising, powerful runner with great burst and exceptional balance. There are legit concerns about his heavy workload, but he ranks just 13th in carries over the past 3 seasons and reported in outstanding physical condition. They still have TE Tony Gonzalez, one of the best to ever play the position, and he can still reliably get open downfield. The other TE, Jason Dunn, is an exceptional blocker who cannot be ignored in coverage either. Kansas City boasts a very deep backfield that will help ease Johnson’s burden, led by super-speedy Michael Bennett and shifty rookie Kolby Smith, who should make a very capable 3rd down back. The OL is not pretty, but C Casey Weigmann and G Brian Waters are decent run blockers used to playing together.
In the late 90s the Chiefs often had superb defenses hindered by plodding, ineffective offenses. The past few seasons has been the inverse, with the offense being the strength and the leaky defense being the problem. It’s back to the future time, because this defense is finally a strength once again. The DE combo of Tamba Hali and Jared Allen is one of the best in the league. Both are lightning-quick pass rushers with enough power and aptitude to handle the run as well. Allen will miss the first two games due to suspension, however. Newcomer Alfonso Boone is an active widebody at DT, and the team drafted two very physical linemen in Turk McBride and Tank Tyler. McBride has looked very good through the preseason and will help ease the pressure on the ends. The linebackers are a major strength, led by emerging star Derrick Johnson on the strong side. He’s a fiery leader and a rangy tackler, the kind of playmaker that offenses gameplan around. Bringing back Donnie Edwards was a smart move, and not just because he led a division rival (San Diego) in tackles last season. He’s past his prime and has lost a half-step, but Edwards is still near impossible to block and finishes his tackles as well as anyone. Newcomer Napoleon Harris represents a clear upgrade in the middle. This is a physical group with enough athleticism to shut down the run for long stretches. The starting CBs, Ty Law and Patrick Surtain, have 25 years of NFL experience between them. Though they no longer have the speed or break on the ball that once made them Pro Bowl fixtures, both play a physical style and have enough left to get the job done. Nickel back Benny Sapp is real streaky, but when he’s playing well he’s excellent at covering the slot. The special team coverage units are very good.
I’d be remiss to fail to mention the outstanding home field advantage of Arrowhead Stadium, particularly late in the season. It’s perhaps the most dreaded roadie in the league, and the team often plays way above expectation at home. The Chiefs have won 10 of their last 11 home games in December, often against playoff teams and division rivals and often in convincing fashion.
What I dislike: Any time a team has played 3 preseason games and still doesn’t know who will start at QB, there is a serious problem. 2nd year man Brodie Croyle has been given every opportunity to win the position, but he’s been mediocre in practice and downright egregious in his preseason performances. The next time he doesn’t stare at his intended receiver from the moment he starts dropping back will be the first time, and he’s prone to poor mechanics when pressured. Croyle is battling with Damon Huard, a career backup coming off a career season in 2006, where he managed to hand the ball to Johnson a whole lot and avoided INTs well. Huard hasn’t exactly stood out either, and his lack of arm strength and strong leadership serve him much better as a backup. It would help whoever wins the QB battle a great deal if the offensive line were better. Long a strength in KC, the OL is now a mess after two future Hall of Famers (Willie Roaf and Will Shields) retired in a 12-month period. Here’s all you need to know about their OL situation: the best tackle on the team is Kyle Turley, who they cut and he found not one other team interested in his services. His balky back caused him to miss nearly two full years, and he still cannot tie his own shoes. All that and he’s still probably the best overall lineman on the team. Larry Johnson is a great RB, but nobody can be expected to thrive when the holes aren’t there. The Chiefs have been trying to usurp WR Eddie Kennison as the top wideout for years without success, and that says more about how bad the other guys are than how good Kennison has been. 1st rounder Dwayne Bowe has excellent potential and a good head on his shoulders, but he’s unproven and won’t be helped by the unsettled QB situation. Those two could be an adequate starting duo, but beyond them and TE Gonzalez the passing targets scare nobody.
The defense should be improved, but there is one glaring question. The two starting safeties are both 23 year old, 2nd year men who struggled, often quite badly, as rookies. Jarrad Page and Bernie Pollard do have talent and upside, but both have issues in coverage and neither has great range or speed. If either Ty Law or Pat Surtain at CB really starts to show their age, the pass defense could go south quickly. There must be something in the state of Missouri that makes promising young defensive linemen fail miserably. The St. Louis Rams have had it worse, but the Chiefs can boast a long, inglorious history of highly drafted D-linemen becoming spectacular busts. I like Turk McBride quite a bit, but I liked Ryan Sims too; Tank Tyler fell from the first round of the draft because of character issues, never a good omen when added to the history of failure. Alfonso Boone is best utilized as the 3rd DT, and if neither rookie is up to snuff the middle of the defensive line could be a real problem. There’s not a lot of proven depth in the secondary. KC is banking on rookie kicker Justin Medlock, who has a great leg but wavering accuracy. And though Dante Hall hasn’t been anything more than an average PR/KR the past couple of seasons, replacing him will not be easy.
Best case: Larry Johnson carries the fledgling offense on his shoulders with a little more help from his backfield mates; Dwayne Bowe proves worthy of his 1st round selection at WR; the LBs dominate against the run and the DEs each record 10+ sacks and consistent pressure; the young safeties step up, and reliable #3 and #4 CBs develop; whomever the QB is winds up +10 in TD/INT ratio.
Worst case: Coach Herm Edwards plays the QB shuffle all season and neither Croyle nor Huard steps up and seizes the job; the OL struggles to open holes for Johnson, and his yards per carry dips a half yard or more; the DL struggles against the run and the LBs are shedding blockers where they should be making plays; the aging CBs are no longer worthy starters and nobody steps up behind them; the young safeties aren’t ready and opponents air it out early and often; the special teams don’t consistently win the battles of field position and production.
Prediction: This is a bit of a rebuilding year in KC, but the Chiefs still have enough talent and potential to factor into the crowded AFC playoff picture. If they get quality QB play, they just might sneak back in, but I think the issues on the offensive line hold them back too much. Finishing 7-9 will disappoint the Arrowhead faithful but will also represent a pretty good year for this group.
The author can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
