| Jeff Risdon. 27th August, 2007 - 2:42 pm
 Last season: 12-4, lost AFC Championship Game
Coming: LB Adalius Thomas, WR Randy Moss, WR Donte Stallworth, WR Wes Welker, TE Kyle Brady, CB Tory James, RB Sammy Morris, CB Eddie Jackson, WR Kelley Washington
Going: RB Corey Dillon, TE Daniel Graham, P Todd Sauerbrun, DE Tully Banta-Cain
Key Rookies: DB Brandon Meriweather
What I like: The Patriots were already a perennial Super Bowl contender, and they added major talent upgrades at two critical positions of need: LB and WR. There is really almost no unit on this team that wouldn’t rank in the top 10 in the NFL at whatever function it’s supposed to perform. QB Tom Brady is a legit MVP candidate, and he came off a great 2006 despite throwing to one of the worst WR corps in the league. Now he gets a brand new group of top 3 wideouts in imports Moss, Stallworth, and Welker. All of those guys have question marks, but the sum of their talent and potential turns a weak point into an asset. The OL doesn’t have overwhelming talent, but all the guys upfront are smart, tough, and agile. They come together to exceed the sum of their parts better than any other line in the league, and Brady trusts them. RB Lawrence Maroney showed flashes of brilliance as a rookie, and so long as his shoulder is healed he should be an above-average feature back. He brings big-play potential that predecessor Corey Dillon lacked. The Patriots have good backfield versatility with Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and a stable of FB/TE types that understand and fulfill their roles quite well. There is great depth at every spot except T and QB, though Tom Brady is as durable as they come. Head Coach Bill Belichick is a master technician and creative playcaller, not to mention a genius motivator and cultivator of greatness. To say that Belichick eclipses his mentor, overrated legend Bill Parcells, is like saying Barry Bonds is a better hitter than his father Bobby. He’s simply the best head coach in pro sports, period.
The defensive front is the envy of all teams that run a 3-4 scheme. Flanking Vince Wilfork with Ty Warren and Richard Seymour gives the Patriots three legit playmakers across the front, guys who can all dominate blockers and control the line of scrimmage. The Pats can also morph into a 4-3 and bring in Jarvis Green at end, a very good changeup speed rusher. New England is stacked at LB, with ultra-versatile Adalius Thomas joining an already strong group. Thomas was the top free agent on the market, and he can blitz, cover, tackle, and create turnovers from a variety of spots. Veterans Mike Vrabel, Rosie Colvin, and Tedi Bruschi are all savvy, sure tacklers who rarely are out of position and can still make plays. All have great size for their position. Rodney Harrison can still dish out fierce hits at safety; wideouts cross the middle at their own peril when Harrison is roaming in the secondary. CB Asante Samuel (assuming he reports after being Franchise tagged; he’s threatening to hold out for the first 10 games) led the league with 10 INTs in 2006 and showed more consistency in his man coverage. Veteran Tory James is another ballhawk who should be an upgrade at nickel back. 1st rounder Brandon Meriweather is a rangy hitter who brings much-needed youthful depth and athleticism to the secondary. He can play either safety or corner, depending on the matchup.
What I dislike: When the biggest issue facing a team in late August is the punter (they are still holding open auditions), finding things to criticize is mighty difficult. They do have a lot of old legs in key spots on defense, and their secondary has been a revolving door of injury and inexperience for years. The offensive line lacks a true standout and has trouble with fast, attacking-style defenses. I like Maroney at RB, but he’s never been a feature back before and his recovery from a shoulder injury took a lot longer than anticipated. If he can’t handle the rigors of 20+ carries a game, the running game is in trouble. For all the talent the team brought in at WR, all the new guys have issues. Randy Moss is an enigmatic malcontent, a physical marvel who often doesn’t play to his potential and isn’t bashful about his apathy or discontent. It remains to be seen how well he fits into an offense where he is supposed to not be the star, as he is accustomed. Stallworth is an elite deep threat, but his hamstrings are chronically troublesome and he’s a terrible downfield blocker. Welker is an overachiever who struggles to get open when he’s not matched against backup CBs. Kelley Washington has never lived up to his considerable physical promise, and he has chronic injury issues like Stallworth. If Welker can’t thrive in the slot and Troy Brown has lost the map to the fountain of youth, there really isn’t anyone who works the middle of the field or excels at underneath routes, both staples of the Pats offense. They will sorely miss Asante Samuel if he makes good on his holdout threat; he already has taken the summer off and will have some inevitable rust whenever he finally checks in. None of the other CBs scare anyone, though the Pats have had worse personnel in the past and still won the Super Bowl. There is a ton of mileage at LB, and other than Thomas it’s one of the slowest groups in the league. It’s not a real deep unit either. The Patriots brought in a lot of questionable attitude guys--Moss, Meriweather, Washington--and nobody ever accused Rodney Harrison or Asante Samuel of being happy-go-lucky people. This team can probably afford one bad apple, but any more than that is risking the tree for a branch.
Best case: Simply put, winning home field advantage throughout the playoffs and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy as Super Bowl champions. The pieces are all in place, so long as Brady stays healthy and the running game holds up.
Worst case: Aside from injuries, having to win either of their last two games (MIA, @NYG) to clinch a division title would be a major upset. Maroney not progressing and the new wideouts not representing the desired upgrade could prove troublesome. The Patriots play all the other legit AFC contenders--BAL, IND, SD, NYJ, PIT--and not having strong showings in all those games could show a vulnerability that gives other teams hope and ways to beat the Patriots.
Prediction: This is the best team on paper in the NFL, and their record will reflect that. 13-3 and total command of the AFC playoff race will be theirs, and the Patriots have the ability to win every playoff game they’re in, including the Super Bowl.
The author can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
