| Jeff Risdon. 31st August, 2007 - 3:23 pm
 Last season: 13-3, Lost Super Bowl
Coming: S Adam Archuleta, DT Anthony Adams, DT Darwin Walker
Going: RB Thomas Jones, S Todd Johnson, DT Ian Scott, DT Alphonso Boone, DT Tank Johnson
Key Rookies: TE Greg Olsen, CB Trumaine McBride, RB Garrett Wolfe
What I like: The defending NFC champs bring back 10 starters on each side of the ball. DT Tommie Harris was an MVP candidate in 2006 before he got hurt, and now he’s in a contract year and looks fully recovered. He is as dominant as any interior DL in the NFL. The starting DEs (Wali Ogunleye, Mark Anderson) are both excellent pass rushers, and the top backup (Alex Brown) would start on many teams and is a solid all-round end. Their top 3 CBs (Nate Vasher, Charles Tillman, Ricky Manning Jr.) are an outstanding coverage unit that plays well together. In the Cover-2 scheme the Bears run, the CBs must be fast, react quickly, and provide run support, and these guys all fit the bill. In the middle of the defense is Brian Urlacher, perhaps the best LB in the league. He’s capable of stuffing the run behind the line or running step for step with backs and TEs down the field. When he’s healthy Mike Brown is a game-changing safety and makes the CBs look even better.
The offensive line is entering its 3rd season together and boasts above-average talent at C, LG, and RT. No line in the league is better at run blocking, and C Olin Kreutz is one of the top 5 in the game. The beneficiary of those big holes is the emerging Cedric Benson, who finally realized how to run with authority and patience. He showed at the end of last season why the Bears took him 4th overall in the 2005 draft. Adding 1st rounder Greg Olsen to pair with Desmond Clark gives the Bears a strong pair of TEs. WR Bernard Berrian is a legit deep threat who can get separation from DBs, and Mushin Muhammad is a savvy vet with great hands. The special teams units are outstanding, and not just the record-setting return ability of PR/KR Devin Hester. Brad Maynard is a weapon at P, and Robbie Gould showed a strong accurate leg as the kicker.
What I dislike: The cost of making the Super Bowl last season has clearly hurt the Bears. Pro Bowl RB Thomas Jones is gone; while Benson has shown good promise, he’s also not shown the requisite durability, toughness, or blocking to fill those shoes yet. OLB Lance Briggs held out most of the summer under the Franchise tag, and the acrimonious negotiations certainly will not help. Briggs is a pretty good player and excellent in coverage, but it remains to be seen how well he’ll fit back in. The rest of the LB corps is underwhelming and very unproven. And as much credit as Urlacher merits, he and Briggs both whiff on a lot more tackles than they should. DT has gone from a position of strength to a major question mark. Other than Tommie Harris, this group offers little upfield punch, something critical to their Cover 2 scheme. Bringing in Darwin Walker helped the depth chart, though they badly overpaid him for what he is, a stunting rusher who offers little in run support and gets overpowered by bigger linemen. The top 2 CBs, Nathan Vasher and Peanut Tillman, both scored big new contracts this summer. It worked extremely well in 2006 when both guys felt they were playing for the same deal, and how they handle the loss of that incentive will be interesting.
I’m not a fan of Rex Grossman at QB. When he’s good he’s a ballsy gunslinger with a great arm and touch. But too often Rex looks like he belongs carrying a clipboard, and his mechanics and decision making break down awfully quick when he’s pressured. His WRs are not as bad as most people think, but they are not a unit that makes an iffy QB any better. When the running game bogs down the talent of the passing game is not consistently good enough to pick up the slack until proven otherwise. The depth on the OL is laughably weak, and the starters are getting long in the tooth at several spots. There’s not a lot behind Benson if he can’t answer the bell at RB, which remains to be seen. Head Coach Lovie Smith proved he is prone to unacceptable gaffes, and his stubbornness at sticking tight to his gameplan makes the Bears pretty easy to prepare for. Their schedule isn’t going to do them any favors, unlike last season when they faced playoff teams just 3 times.
Best case: Grossman shows consistency and reliability in his contract year; Benson steps forward and runs for 1400+ yards and 10+ TDs; the lines continue to dominate the line of scrimmage and allow the skill position players on both sides to excel; Tillman and Vasher stay hungry at CB after getting long-term deals; the special teams continue to thrive and change the game; Briggs plays to his franchise tag level; the safeties stay healthy and don’t get exposed in pass coverage. The swagger they effectively carried last season returns in full force.
Worst case: Injuries to either Tommie Harris or Urlacher would be devastating, enough to move this team to last place; Grossman and Benson remain unreliable and the team divides between them and their backups; the OL starts to show its advancing age; none of the WRs steps forward as a go-to guy; the tough start to the schedule (@SD, KC, DAL) trips them up and causes the seeds of doubt to sprout quickly.
Prediction: This is still the best overall team in the NFC North and is fully capable of returning to the Super Bowl if the offensive skill positions play well. But their depth is largely gone, their schedule significantly tougher-looking, and the sum of their losses greatly outweighs their potential gains. 10-6 and another NFC North title is most likely, but the potential to go 13-3 or 8-8 are both plausible, depending on Rex Grossman and the amount of defensive injuries they suffer. |
