| Jeff Risdon. 4th September, 2007 - 8:01 pm
 Last season: 8-8, T-2 in AFC North
Coming: C Sean Mahan, KR/CB Allan Rossum
Going: LB Joey Porter, C Jeff Hartings, RB Verron Haynes, P Chris Gardocki, WR Sean Morey
Key Rookies: OLB LaMarr Woodley, P Daniel Sepulveda, TE Matt Spaeth
What I like: The defending Super Bowl champs stumbled, but very quietly the Steelers re-emerged as a team to be reckoned with by winning 6 of their last 8 games, often in impressive fashion. Almost all the key components from the Super Bowl run are still in place as well. QB Ben Roethlisberger struggled through a nightmarish 2006 preseason (a near-fatal motorcycle accident and a subsequent appendectomy) to finish the campaign with a string of strong performances. He’s looked great all summer and has a newfound focus and better overall fitness. Big Ben throws on the move as well as anyone. RB Willie Parker is a home-run hitter who can surprise people with his power between the tackles. Not many are better at bouncing an inside run outside for a long gain, and Parker is as good as anyone when facing a DB 1-on-1. LG Alan Faneca is the best in the business, and he’s playing for a fat contract next offseason. He pairs with LT Marvel Smith to form a very strong left side of the OL. Newcomer Sean Mahan has huge shoes to fill at C, but he is a savvy line leader with great lateral quickness, and he earned the job in a hard-fought competition. RG Kendall Simmons has quietly developed into a very good overall player, and he was recently rewarded with a nice contract extension from an organization that is often quite stingy in that regard. WR Hines Ward is the poster boy for every high school coach in the country in terms of how they want young receivers to play. He’s a great route runner, uses his body well, catches everything with his hands, leads by example, and he’s the best down field blocker in the NFL. Ward is no longer a true #1 wideout, but the Steelers have a great candidate for that role in Santonio Holmes. Last year’s 1st round pick started slowly, but like his QB, Holmes made great progress as the year wore on. He’s learned a great deal from Ward, but Holmes has legit elite speed and instant acceleration that the Steelers have never had paired with Ward before. TE Heath Miller is a consistent threat in the passing game that excels at finding holes in zones. The Steelers like their depth across the offense more than most teams, and probably more than their fans like it. Backup QB Charlie Batch looks as if he could still start for several teams, but he has embraced his role here.
Defensive Coordinator Dick Lebeau is a near-legend for his innovative, attacking 3-4 scheme, and his charges have loads of talent and speed. The personnel matches exactly what a team looks for when constructing the type of defense Lebeau and new Head Coach Mike Tomlin want to run. NT Casey Hampton is a beast inside, a prerequisite for 3-4 success. End Aaron Smith is a very good run stuffer, and his counterpart Brett Keisel excels at rushing the passer. The LB position remains a strength despite losing Joey Porter, the leader of the group. Clark Haggans, James Harrison, Larry Foote, and James Farrior all offer the requisite athleticism and speed to do their jobs, but what strikes me is how all possess solid football IQs--they rarely get caught out of position and cover for one another quite adeptly. It helps that S Troy Polamalu is a star. Picture the Tasmanian Devil in cleats and a #43 Steelers jersey, give him great hands, and that’s Polamalu. Anthony Smith should build on a strong rookie season at the other safety, and backup Ryan Clark is better than a lot of starters on other teams. The team is transitioning to more Cover-2 coverage, which should help the corners out. CB Ike Taylor is close to meriting “shutdown” corner status. There is solid depth all over the back 8, with rookie OLB LaMarr Woodley the talk of the preseason with his pass rushing burst.
What I dislike: Any time a new coach takes over for a legend there is cause for concern. Mike Tomlin certainly appears to have a good handle on things, but he’s younger than some of his players and has never been a head coach at any level before. As they proved last year, this team cannot lose the turnover battle and win many wars. I think Ben Roethlisberger is primed for a huge comeback season, but it’s hard to ignore all those INTs and throws he missed high last year. There is very little behind Parker at RB, and he’s on the small size. An injury to either offensive tackle would be catastrophic, especially if LT Marvel Smith goes down. Even with their cohesive line they still give up far too many QB pressures and sacks, though some of that falls on Big Ben as well. You simply don’t replace a guy as good as Jeff Hartings at C and not expect a dropoff either. Behind Holmes and Ward, the WR corps is full of untested youth. The preseason battle for #2 CB between Deshea Townsend and Bryant McFadden proved that neither guy should be in that role. After those two and Taylor, there is nothing at CB, not a good thing with pass-happy teams like CIN, ARI, STL, NE, BAL, and DEN on the schedule. The Steelers are installing a new offensive system and blocking scheme, which will require some transition pains. The Steelers cut their entire 2nd day draft class except the new punter, and one veteran scout told me they would have cut 1st round LB Lawrence Timmons if he had gone in any later round--he’s been that bad. That hurts depth and special teams, which already lost top kickoff/punt return cover man in Sean Morey.
Best case: The team doesn’t skip a beat from their strong finish last season and comes out of the gate firing under new Coach Tomlin; Roethlisberger cuts back the poor decision and the WRs make more big plays; Parker rushes for 1500+ yards and scores 16+ TDs behind a solid, healthy OL; the sack differential winds up +15 or better; the intermediate and deep pass coverage improves. Pittsburgh opens with 4 games they should win fairly easily (@CLE, BUF, SF, @ARI), a great time to sock away valuable wins and show they are back.
Worst case: The Steelers have to be able to run the ball consistently for the passing game to work, and if Parker cannot grind out tough yards, too many drives are going to stall. An inability to score without trickery or big plays would be a big problem. Winding up negative or even below +5 in both sack and turnover differential would be even worse. It is imperative the Steelers win 4 of their first 5 games, because they get a brutal December schedule (CIN, @NE, JAX, @STL, @BAL). Having to win more than one of those to finish in the playoffs is a tall order.
Prediction: This is one of the toughest seasons to forecast in the 4 years I’ve been doing predictions. I believe Big Ben will come back with a vengeance, and the defense is good enough to win a playoff game or two. But it’s a real thin margin for error in a loaded AFC, and they play in the toughest division in the tougher league. Still, I think this team is a lot closer to the 2005 Super Bowl champion team than the middling group we saw last season. 10-6 and one playoff win for the Steelers in 2007. |
