| Jeff Risdon. 5th September, 2007 - 10:58 am
 Last season: 7-9, 3rd NFC West
Coming: CB Nate Clements, LB Tully Banta-Cain, S Michael Lewis, WR Darrell Jackson, WR Ashley Leile, NT Aubrayo Franklin
Going: C Jeremy Newberry, WR Antonio Bryant, TE Eric Johnson, S Mike Adams
Key Rookies: LB Patrick Willis, T Joe Staley, WR Jason Hill
What I like: This could be the most improved defense in the league, with prized free agent CB Nate Clements and 1st round ILB Patrick Willis being impact players. Clements earned the richest CB contract in history with his great cover skills, ball skills, and run support. His arrival puts the rest of the secondary in positions where they belong and will be more effective. The LB corps is solid in run support, and newcomer Tully Banta-Cain brings much-needed pass rush experience. Ronnie Fields and Marques Douglas bring loads of energy and run-stuffing competence to the front line, while newcomer Aubrayo Franklin brings great size and energy to the middle. The defense has upgraded its overall speed, which will help make the 3-4 scheme more effective.
RB Frank Gore turned heads with a monster 2006, and he showed he has the ability to be an elite, versatile back. He runs with power, great balance, and can hit his extra gear with just one open step. The line in front of Gore excels at creating a strong initial push and sealing holes. Somehow LG Larry Allen still looks like an elite player headed into his 15th season, and he makes the guys on both sides of him much better. He and LT Jonas Jennings make a formidable mountain of manhood on the left side. Rookie RT Joe Staley will be an upgrade with his great athleticism and quick feet. FB Moran Norris is an exceptional blocker who can catch the occasional outlet pass. QB Alex Smith enters his 3rd season finally resembling a competent starting field general. He’s a mobile, athletic QB with improving accuracy who throws a very nice deep ball. TE Vernon Davis is a physical marvel with the speed of a WR and the size of a DE, and he’s capable of becoming the best in the league at his position. Bringing in wideouts Darrell Jackson and Ashley Leile represents a potentially huge upgrade if both can stay healthy and focused. WR Arnaz Battle is an ideal possession receiver who has good chemistry with Smith. Rookie Jason Hill brings game-changing speed to stretch the field.
What I dislike: This team is certainly improved, but there are still some real problems and questions. You don’t rise up from being the statistically worst team of the last 25 years (the Niners in 2005) in just two seasons. I’m very concerned about the RB situation. Frank Gore is great, but he’s already nursing a broken hand, and he’s struggled to stay healthy all the way back to high school. Behind Gore there is next to nothing, as primary backup Maurice Hicks is a barely-adequate 3rd down back who hasn’t broken a tackle in years. QB Alex Smith has made good progress, but he’s still very young and lost QB guru Norv Turner. The impact of that loss cannot be understated; when Turner has left from prior stops, the QB rating declines an average of 13 points in the first Norv-less season. That’s not just some scrub QBs either, but a list that includes Hall of Famer Troy Aikman and woefully underappreciated Jim Everett. Smith has struggled with INTs his entire career, and his style of play means that’s something that is not going to change. I have a strong suspicion the WR situation looks a lot better on paper than it will on the field. The Niners picked up Darrell Jackson from the team they are chasing in the NFC West, Seattle. One of my football axioms: beware gifts from division rivals. Jackson has topped 70 catches only once, and he leads the NFL in dropped passes over the last 5 seasons despite missing 14 games. He’s one of the least clutch players in the league and not the greatest guy in the locker room. Ashley Leile has largely been a huge disappointment despite having outstanding speed. He’s another guy whose departure from prior locker rooms was welcomed too. Neither guy is in the mercifully departed Antonio Bryant’s league, but this team sorely needs a Mr. Reliable and a leader at WR, and they still don’t have one.
The defense ranked no higher than 23rd in any adjusted stat category (there are 14 of them) last season. The new additions will help, but when you’re that consistently poor across the board it’s hard to expect the massive improvement needed. The team got career years from CB Walt Harris and LB Brandon Moore, neither of whom had showed anything close to their output levels before then. The front 3 is undersized and not particularly good at anything other than effort. Newcomer Franklin missed the preseason with injury, and he’s struggled with stamina issues his entire career as a backup. The Michael Lewis and Tully Banta-Cain signings drew lots of praise and no doubt will help, but both guys were benched from playoff teams last year and the defenses played better without them. The depth across the defense (except safety) is not pretty.
Best case: All the positive vibe as this year’s “it” team infects the 49ers with a confidence and swagger; Smith continues to progress and Gore remains a healthy elite producer; the pass rush and 1st down defense improve from the upper 20s to at least the mid-teens in ranking; a capable return man emerges and Nedney is on more than he’s off at K. The Niners open the season with division games in 3 of their first 4 weeks, and a sweep would firmly establish them as legit. The easiest part of their schedule is the last 4 weeks (MIN, CIN, TB, @CLE) and if they’re already in the division lead headed into that stretch, these 49ers are a playoff lock.
Worst case: Larry Allen either gets hurt or loses some effectiveness; Smith misses Norv Turner and adjusts slowly to his 5th coordinator in 6 years; none of the new WRs make a positive impact; Gore’s hand injury slows him down; the DL continues to get blow backwards and the back 8 can’t consistently make plays or force turnovers.
Prediction: The Niners have become a trendy pick as a breakout playoff team, but I’m not sold. Despite all the upgrades, there are still some serious questions in several spots. If all those questions (WR, DL, QB, PR, thin OL, Gore’s health) get answered positively, this team can achieve those increased expectations. That’s simply too optimistic for me. Even as a best-case this is a team that should be happy to make the playoffs and stay within 2 TDs of the Saints, Bears, or Eagles. A slow start against a tough schedule dooms the 49ers to a repeat 7-9 season.
The author can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
