| Christopher Reina. 14th November, 2007 - 7:14 pm
 Alex Smith is having the worst third-year of any quarterback drafted first overall. Worse than Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe and Tim Couch.
To give Smith credit, he has played injured and has seen scores of his balls (15 or 15.2% of his incompletions) dropped by his receivers.
But even still, he's been bad. Smith's 4.7 yards per pass attempt is dead last in the NFL. He has struggled with his accuracy all season.
Matt Leinart surely would have been their selection had he left USC after his junior Heisman Trophy season, but he struggled early and was in a platoon with Kurt Warner before his season-ending injury. (The 49ers could have had him with their sixth overall pick the following year.)
Has a quarterback who has struggled so terribly in his third season ever gone on to be a Pro Bowl quarterback? Or even become an average starter?
Below is a list of quarterbacks in their third season since 1991:
*Number one overall picks in bold
2007
Derek Anderson: 90.7
Jason Campbell: 79.9
Smith: 57.6
2006
Philip Rivers: 92.0
J.P. Losman: 84.9
Eli Manning: 77.0
Ben Roethlisberger: 75.4
2005
Carson Palmer: 101.1
Byron Leftwich: 89.3
Chris Simms: 81.4
Brooks Bollinger: 72.9
Kyle Boller: 71.8
2004
David Carr: 83.5
Joey Harrington: 77.5
Patrick Ramsey: 74.8
Josh McCown: 74.1
2003
Marc Bulger: 81.4
Quincy Carter: 71.4
Drew Brees: 67.5
2002
Chad Pennington: 104.2
Tom Brady: 85.7
2001
Jeff Garcia: 94.8
Donovan McNabb: 84.3
Daunte Culpepper: 83.3
Aaron Brooks: 76.4
Tim Couch: 73.1
Matt Hasselbeck: 70.9
2000
Brian Griese: 102.9
Kurt Warner: 98.3
Peyton Manning: 94.7
Charlie Batch: 67.3
Ryan Leaf: 56.2
1999
Ray Lucas: 85.1
Jon Kitna: 77.7
Jake Plummer: 50.8
1998
Tony Banks: 68.6
Danny Kanell: 67.3
Bobby Hoying: 45.6
1997
Kordell Stewart: 75.2
Steve McNair: 70.4
Kerry Collins: 55.7
1996
Gus Frerotte: 79.3
Trent Dilfer: 64.8
1995
Mark Brunell: 82.6
Drew Bledsoe: 63.7
Rick Mirer: 63.7
1994
Craig Erickson: 82.5
Jeff Blake: 76.9
Dave Brown: 72.5
David Klinger: 65.7
1993
Brett Favre: 72.2
1992
Neil O’Donnell: 83.6
Stan Humphries: 76.4
Jeff George: 61.5
1991
Troy Aikman: 86.7
Steve Walsh: 79.5
Roethlisberger, Brees, Hasselbeck, Plummer, George and Bledsoe are the names to look at and still see promise.
(We'll let the Ryan Leafs, David Klinger and Bobby Hoyings speak for themselves.)
Roethlisberger won a Super Bowl in his second season with a 98.6 rating, which followed his improbable rookie season in which he went 14-0 as a starter with a 98.1 rating. His offseason motorcycle accident likely contributed to a 75.4 rating in his third-year. Roethlisberger has rebounded phenomenally in 2007 with a 110.2 rating (2nd in the NFL).
Brees followed up a promising second season where he had a 76.9 rating by turning in a dismal 2003, which resulted in the Chargers holding the worst record in the NFL and the top overall selection. Through a draft day trade for Philip Rivers, Brees’ time in San Diego looked done. But he remained the starter due to Rivers’ holdout and turned in a 104.8 rating and led the Chargers to the playoffs. He digressed in 2005 and hurt his shoulder in the last game of the season and subsequently left for New Orleans where he had a 96.2 rating and turned around that franchise.
Hasselbeck’s third season in the NFL was actually his first where he saw substantial playing time after spending his first two as Brett Favre’s eventual successor (see Aaron Rodgers). After a 70.9 rating in his first season with Seattle, Hasselbeck jumped up to 87.8/88.8/83.1/98.2 over the next four seasons.
Plummer had a 75.0 rating in his second season and won a playoff game over Dallas. He had great seasons from Frank Sanders and Rob Moore. The following season was filled with injuries and he played in just 12 games. When he reached Denver in 2003, he played well again, posting 91.2/84.5/90.2 seasons before struggling in 2006 and subsequently beginning his handball career.
George still thinks he can play in the NFL, but in 1992 it didn’t look promising when he posted a 61.5 rating. He had seven touchdowns and 15 interceptions that season. But he was better in 1993 and had two decent seasons in Atlanta in the run & shoot offense. He also had one brilliant season in Oakland (1997) and one in Minnesota (1999).
Bledsoe’s worst season was clearly his third-season in the NFL when he had a 63.7 rating and was coming off a Pro Bowl appearance. The subsequent season saw him post a 83.7 rating, a return trip to the Pro Bowl and a Super Bowl berth.
A bad third-year is clearly not a death signal, but it should make 49ers' management less bullish on Smith and also force them into considering alternatives in the near future. Smith built up enough credit with his 2006 season where he had a 74.8 rating under Norv Turner to warrant the franchise's full confidence for his fourth season.
Give him a sure handed wide receiver and a healthy Vernon Davis and see what happens then.
But this is the NFL of Tony Romo (undrafted), Tom Brady (6th round), Derek Anderson (6th round), Marc Bulger (6th round), Jon Kitna (undrafted) as much as it is the NFL of Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer. |
