| Jeff Risdon. 22nd July, 2008 - 10:50 am
 Last Season: 8-8, 4th in AFC South, -5 point differential, -13 turnover ratio
Additions: RB Chris Brown, LB Kevin Bentley, LB Roosevelt Colvin, CB Jacques Reeves, LB Chaun Thompson, CB Jimmy Williams, WR Tim Carter, C Chris Myers
Subtractions: RB Ron Dayne, T Jordan Black, S Michael Boulware, CB Von Hutchins, LB Danny Clark, LB Shawn Barber, LB Shantee Orr
Rookies of Note: T Duane Brown, CB Antwuan Molden, RB Steve Slaton, LB Xavier Adibi
What I like
Offense: The Texans struggled from their incarnation with the QB position until last season, when they came up with two legit NFL starting QB's. Matt Schaub proved worth the price to pluck him from the Falcons (two 2nd round picks), finishing ahead of more heralded Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson, and Philip Rivers in QB Rating. He has his warts (more on that later), but Schaub represented a clear upgrade over David Carr with his poise, his patience, and his command of the huddle. Sage Rosenfels leapt off the scrap heap and also played well when Schaub got hurt. Well enough, in fact, to forge something of a QB controversy at the end of last season that bled into the offseason. Rosenfels clamored for a trade, but the Texans wisely kept him in the fold. Schaub’s judicious use of his mobility and great touch on deeper throws, not to mention his contract and acquisition price, keeps him as the starter. Rosenfels is more of a risk-taker than Schaub and isn’t as mobile, but the Iowa State product displayed good accuracy and a strong command of the weapons at hand in the offense. Both handled pressure well, and the Texans finally have both competence and coveted depth at quarterback.
Benefiting from the improved QB play, WR Andre Johnson finally lived up to the expectations of being the 3rd overall pick in the 2003 draft. He missed weeks 3-9 with injury but still wound up with 60 catches and 8 TD's. Johnson is a legit #1 WR with great size, speed, hands, and attitude, a guy who can stretch the field but also go across the middle and take a hit. Also taking advantage of better QB play was Kevin Walter, who proved he is a capable #2 when playing alongside Johnson. He consistently found holes underneath the zones and demonstrated excellent hands and concentration. Headed into last season the Texans had nothing at WR but Johnson and questions, but Walter answered one of those questions emphatically. Veteran retread Andre Davis played reasonably well filling in for the injured Johnson although his play fell off once Johnson returned. He has great straight-line speed and proved a capable kick returner, and he becomes the best #3 WR the Texans have ever employed. Jacoby Jones struggled with injuries and blocking as a rookie, but observers tell me no player has improved more this offseason than Jones. TE Owen Daniels is a reliable security blanket and a much better run-after-the-catch receiver than he gets credit.
The front line will look a lot different, as much stylistically as personnel wise. RT Eric Winston is the only holdover who won’t either lose his spot or be challenged as a starter. New OL Coach Alex Gibbs brings his legendary zone blocking scheme, which generally helps nondescript RB's find better running lanes behind nondescript linemen. Winston is certainly more than a nondescript RT, as he has matured into one of the best at his position in the league. Chris Myers will take over at C, and he is well-versed in Gibbs’ scheme and represents a clear upgrade. First round pick Duane Brown will be given every chance to win the LT job over Ephraim Salaam, and if Brown can handle the physicality and mental acuity needed to succeed, the Texans just might have themselves a pretty good OL. There is serviceable depth across the front line, though it’s not depth that Texans fans or coaches want to see tested.
Andre Davis provided a real nice jolt to the kick return game, as important as his contributions at WR. Josh Brown has better FG range than most kickers and the team has confidence in his clutch ability. The special teams cover units should improve with the addition of LB Chaun Thompson, who excelled in that role in Cleveland. The improved team speed, thanks to guys like Xavier Adibi, Zac Diles, and Jimmy Williams, will also prove a boon for the special teams.
Defense: Mario Williams has quickly emerged as one of the better all-around DEs in the league after just two years. He commands double teams on both run and pass plays, and he has greatly improved his ability to countermove and set up his moves better. If he improves as much from Year 2 to Year 3 as he did last summer, 20 sacks is not out of the question. Providing much-needed help for Williams inside is Amobi Okoye, a precocious rookie last year. Before he slammed hard into the rookie wall, Okoye showed good ability to get penetration and hold his gap assignments. He worked hard on improving his stamina and quickness this offseason, which should help avoid a repeat of the second half of 2007, where he often looked very much like the youngest player in the league. Travis Johnson (DT) and Anthony Weaver (DE) both handle run defense pretty well, and the Texans have an adequate DL rotation and depth.
MLB Demeco Ryans is a stout tackling machine and has developed into a fine defensive captain. He lacks ideal size, but his anticipation skills are second to none and he does an excellent job of avoiding clean blocks. Ryans is also quite capable in coverage, and the team used him as the primary TE cover man most of last season. Morlon Greenwood took a step forward as the weakside LB last season, a sure tackler who has improved his lateral agility and quickness in diagnosing plays. Zac Diles and Xavier Adibi will compete with Chaun Thompson for the strongside gig. All 3 are blessed with very good speed and athleticism, though only Thompson weighs over 230 pounds. It should be a very stout unit against the run, especially if the front four can keep blockers busy.
What I dislike
Offense: The Texans have struggled with their offensive line since their inception, and though this is perhaps the best line they’ve had, it’s still inferior to their division rivals. In the draft, they panicked after the run of offensive tackles and reached for Duane Brown in the 1st round. I was actually higher on Brown than many scouts, but even I found that a major reach. The guards remain a chronic weakness; Chester Pitts has started every game in franchise history, yet he wouldn’t start a game on at least 25 other rosters. It is not a group with a great deal of overall athleticism or aggression, and the transition to the zone blocking scheme favored by Alex Gibbs figures to look messy at times. They’ve never really recovered from losing Charles Spencer to a nasty knee injury, though Spencer is attempting a comeback at guard. The potential to improve into a decent OL is in place, but thus far they’ve yet to achieve that status.
Running back also remains a thorny paw. Ahman Green was brought in to add punch, but his knees appear shot after a lost season. They signed Chris Brown from Tennessee, which has tried to find a better backup RB than Brown ever since they drafted him. Brown has good size and can flash the burst just often enough to remain a viable threat, but he often struggles to read his blocks and lacks the patience to let them develop. Rookie Steve Slaton is a water-bug type who should do well as a 3rd down back if he proves he can adapt to an NFL-style offense and catch the ball well. If Green can resurrect his career and the line takes quickly to the new blocking scheme, the Texans have the ability to turn this question into an asset. But those are both big “ifs” that need to be seen to be believed. They do have an outstanding FB in Vonta Leach, a converted LB who loves attacking his former colleagues.
There is still concern at the WR spot, particularly if Johnson isn’t fully recovered from his knee injury. Without Johnson as the #1 WR, the offense loses its primary weapon and the other receivers are asked to play above their collective heads. I worry that Kevin Walter might be a Mike Furrey-esque one-year wonder, and Andre Davis has worn out his welcome quickly in prior stops with his lack of focus and inconsistent effort. Schaub has had issues with trusting his wideouts dating back to his collegiate days, and he has a bad tendency to miss high, which leads to turnovers and very sore receivers. The passing game desperately needs a clean bill of health for 16 games for all the primary figures in order for this offense to compete.
Defense: The pass defense has been awful for the last couple of seasons, and it has little potential to improve much this season. The one legit quality starter in the secondary is CB Dunta Robinson, but he is likely to miss at least the first half of the 2008 season with a devastating knee injury. That means their top CB is likely Cowboys castoff Jacques Reeves. Ask any Dallas fan about Reeves and, once the laughter dies down, you’ll get the picture about the sorry state of the Texans secondary. Fred Bennett showed some promise as a rookie last year, but he had lots of trouble with his footwork and route anticipation. He will compete with rookie Antwuan Molden, Demarcus Faggins and newcomer Jimmy Williams for the #2 and nickel roles. Consider Williams was the #5 CB in Seattle last year, and that Faggins was responsible for more yards per reception than any other CB in the league (per Pro Football Weekly). The Texans also parted ways with safety Von Hutchens, who played very well under duress last year. This is probably the weakest secondary in the entire league, and the Texans have to face the pass-happy Colts twice, as well as the Lions, Browns, Bengals, Packers, and Steelers, all of whom like to spread the field with 3+ wideouts.
One way to combat a weak secondary is to consistently pressure the QB. But other than Mario Williams, the team sorely lacks any real pass rush. Amobi Okoye should develop into a more reliable pass rush threat and get close to 10 sacks, but nobody else in the front seven offers much ability to get to the QB. Ask Saints fans how well an inconsistent pass rush pairs with a rotten secondary, and consider the Saints notched 15 more sacks in 2007 than the Texans. There is not enough talent around him at LB to turn Demeco Ryans free on the blitz; Ryans is the best LB in coverage on the team, and he has just 5 sacks in his two seasons. No other LB on the team has ever topped more than 3.5 sacks in any season, save aging newcomer Roosevelt Colvin, whom was let go by the LB-desperate Patriots. It is a defensive unit that lacks playmakers in the back 7, though the team speed has improved, which could translate into more INTs and cut down on big plays in the passing game.
Best Case: Schaub steps forward in the manner David Garrard did for JAX last season, and he and Andre Johnson develop great chemistry over a full 16 games. The zone blocking scheme produces a consistent rushing threat, and the youth on the OL develops quicker than expected. The secondary somehow holds its own, no doubt aided by a pass rush coming from someone besides Mario Williams. Going 3-1 against division rivals TEN and JAX and taking advantage of homes games against downtrodden MIA, CHI, DET, and CIN will allow the Texans to at least match last year’s 8-8 record and perhaps push for the last AFC Wild Card spot.
Worst Case: The schedule makers did the Texans no favors early. The first 5 games: @PIT, BAL, @TEN, @JAX, IND. They could very well start 0-5 against that brutal start, which is not the way to keep positive momentum and high expectations moving forward. Unless they win at least two of those games, their playoff hopes are done and eking back to 8 wins is a longshot. That win total is an impossibility if Andre Johnson, Mario Williams, or Demeco Ryans miss significant time.
Bellwether Games: Weeks 4 and 5, at Jacksonville and home against Indy. The two elite division rivals that the Texans need to upend if they ever want to make the playoffs come back to back after an already rough schedule start. The Texans have had the Jaguars’ number lately, and if they can continue that and also beat the Colts, you will know this team is a legit playoff contender. Lose both and Houston is headed for yet another 4th place finish in the tough AFC South. The Texans are 1-11 lifetime against the Colts, with the average score of 32-13, so making a positive statement against Peyton & Co. is imperative to any progress.
Prediction: It’s hard to not like how this team has improved itself over the last couple of seasons, but it’s still not without significant issues. They went 2-7 in 2007 against teams with winning records, and the average score of those games was 34-19 and includes the finale against a JAX team that mailed it in quickly. That indicates they probably aren’t as close to being as good as many people suspect. Their faulty secondary and iffy running game is a bad combo for both holding leads and winning close games. That and the brutal start to the schedule add up to a disappointing 7-9 finish, but another good offseason and this team is poised to jump into the playoff pool.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
