| Jeff Risdon. 4th August, 2008 - 7:02 pm
 Last Season: 5-11, 4th in AFC North, -109 point differential, -17 turnover ratio
Additions: CB Fabian Washington, CB Frank Walker, LB Brendon Ayanbadejo, G Adrien Clarke
Subtractions: T Jonathan Ogden, QB Steve McNair, WR Devard Darling, RB Mike Anderson, KR BJ Sams, RB Musa Smith, TE Quinn Sypniewski (IR)
Rookies of Note: QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, S/KR Tom Zbikowski, WR Marcus Smith
What I like
Offense: This is an offense built for power football, which suits them well within their division. RB Willis McGahee notched over 1200 yards in his first season in the purple and black despite an almost complete absence of any vertical passing game. He packs loads of power and explosiveness into his sturdy frame, and he has the rare ability to make quick cuts at full speed without sacrificing balance. His numbers should improve with more plays off-tackle, where he can hit the edge without hesitation. Le’Ron McClain assumed the starting FB role as a rookie and did not disappoint. McClain might not get 10 carries all year, but his helmet-rattling blocks and ability to locate LB's in space make him a major asset. The Ravens wisely brought in younger depth with rookies Ray Rice and Allen Patrick. Rice will be McGahee’s backup, and like McGahee, he offers strong between the tackles running with a punishing style. Draftniks will recall that I’m not very high on Rice, but if he is going to succeed in the NFL this is perhaps the best place for him to make it happen.
The offensive line is undergoing changes but remains a good one, at least potentially. Their G-C-G combo of Jason Brown, Chris Chester, and Ben Grubbs is a young mauling force with a lot of experience playing together. Brown should emerge as a Pro Bowler with his downright nasty drive blocking, and Grubbs was perhaps the second-best rookie OL in the league in 2007. Replacing Hall of Fame LT Jonathan Ogden won’t be easy, but the Ravens have a young player of comparable size in Jared Gaither, who progressively improved as a rookie and should only get better with more reps. Adam Terry might start the year at LT over Gaither, but he is more of a low-ceiling/high-floor type better suited for the right side. Marshall Yanda can play every spot but C, providing nice starting-caliber depth with an infectious nastiness. With the drafting of mammoth O’Neill Cousins and hyper-competitive David Hale, there is strong competition that should result in exceptional depth. It’s a group whose best days are ahead, and it’s already a decent unit filled with solid players and good chemistry.
WR Derrick Mason caught 103 balls last year at age 33 despite the entire stadium knowing he was the primary receiver on every pass play. He is no longer the deep threat he was in his Titans' incarnation, but Mason has morphed into perhaps the best possession WR in the game. Over the last two seasons only one other WR has converted more 3rd down catches for 1st downs (TJ Houshmandzadeh) than Mason, and the cagey vet can still make a few moves after the catch. The Ravens desperately need TE Todd Heap to come back in full health from a torn hamstring. Heap is one of the best receiving TE's in the league and has an innate knack for making catches in between the LB and safety often clouding him in coverage. Every young QBs’ best friend is a dependable TE with great hands, and Heap provides that and more.
Defense: The defensive front seven is still a top 5 overall unit, with perhaps the best DL in the league. The beefy trio of Kelly Gregg, Haloti Ngata, and Trevor Pryce is perhaps the ideal 3-man line to front the 3-4 defense. Ngata is emerging as one of the premier linemen in the NFL, with surprising versatility and quickness for such a large man. Pryce should be back to full health, which means a return to double-digit sacks and more reliable outside lane containment. Gregg gets less publicity than any elite player in the league, but make no mistake--he is indeed an elite talent at his position. They have the ability to tie up linemen but also make plays while doing so, creating a nightmare matchup for offensive lines, particularly those smaller zone-blocking schemes.
The linebacking corps isn’t far behind the linemen. In Bart Scott, Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, and Jarrett Johnson, the Ravens sport a unit based on toughness, physicality, and smart use of speed. Suggs earned the franchise tag for his consistency as one of the top edge pass rushers in the league, but he’s not a slouch against the run, either. Ray Lewis is no longer the dominant force of his heyday, but to suggest he’s no longer one of the better inside backers would be wrong. As the heart and vocal leader of the defense, Lewis makes up for his loss of range and questionable improvisational decisions. Scott and Johnson are both no-nonsense, hard-nosed, high football IQ players who feed well off Lewis and the front line. Bart Scott is headed into a contract year (as is Lewis), which has often produced outstanding seasons for Ravens defenders. When you consider just how often the defense faced a short field thanks to offensive ineptitude and turnovers, that they still managed to look very strong is a testament to just how talented this unit truly is. There is some youth and depth at both DE and LB, notably rookie LB Tavares Gooden, DE Dwan Edwards, and pass rush specialist Antwan Barnes.
Ed Reed remains an elite playmaker at safety, a rangy ballhawk who can really lay the lumber. He makes plays all over the field and has the skill sets of both a corner and a linebacker, making him an ideal versatile weapon at safety. Fellow safety Laron Landry didn’t progress as expected after an impressive rookie year, but he remains a solid all-around player who thrives when the pass rush is effective. The Ravens are set at one corner with Chris McAllister, a physical blanket with a great nose for the ball. Provided he can fully recover from injury, he is capable of giving even the toughest receivers a hard battle. Newcomers Fabian Washington and Frank Walker both bring starting experience and much-needed depth, and Washington offers great speed and a fairly big chip on his shoulder after his unceremonious ouster from Oakland. Samari Rolle is penciled in as the other starter opposite McAllister, but his epilepsy diagnosis leaves his status uncertain. If he can manage it and recover from a terrible 2007, the secondary will vault right back to one of the elite in the league.
What I dislike
Offense: The 2000 Ravens are often cited as the team that won the Super Bowl with the worst QB, that being Trent Dilfer. Last season the Ravens suffered through a year where Dilfer’s 2000 seemed like a fantasy. Troy Smith wasn’t awful in his two starts, showing an ability to lead his receivers and buy time when the pocket collapsed without panic. The problem is, he often led his receivers too much and was a little too anxious to run. Regardless, thanks to the deal to draft Flacco in the 1st round, Smith’s tenure as starter is likely short. Flacco has outstanding measurable, but in scouting him extensively I found two things that really bothered me. Foremost is his footwork and mechanics, but that can be fixed with experience and coaching. The one that’s more worrisome long-term is how he handles pressure, both on and off the field. The third option for new Head Coach John Harbaugh, who got the job based on his QB coaching, is Kyle Boller, a guy they have desperately wanted to win the job since they took him in the first round in 2003. That he’s still around speaks of his character and talent, but for a variety of reasons it just hasn’t worked out. Early indications are that Boller will handle the starting duties until Flacco is deemed ready. That situation is not how successful teams work. Even if Flacco emerges as The Man quickly, the inevitable growing pains that go along with starting a rookie QB with an underwhelming WR corps are going to hurt the Ravens this year.
That WR group has Mr. Reliable Derrick Mason and a lot of question marks. New OC Cam Cameron, the overmatched head man on the worst team of the last 20 years (the Dolphins) last season, has had proven success with mediocre receiving casts before, but he’s got his work cut out for him in Baltimore. The #2 job is a battle between Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams, which is sort of like an arm wrestling match between Ben Stein and Napoleon Dynamite. Clayton can’t get open and Williams can’t catch. Clayton would likely be cut already if not for his first round draft status, while Williams has failed to harness his great size and speed into functional football usage. The Ravens did draft a couple of rookies who might thrive in Justin Harper and Marcus Smith. Smith in particular stands a good chance because he operates well over the middle and he blocks. Nevertheless, with the QB situation up in the air, this group of wideouts is likely to struggle. If Todd Heap isn’t back at full strength, the passing game could once again look real ugly. His primary replacement last season, Quinn Sypniewski, is out for the season and perhaps longer with a gruesome knee injury.
The OL is not without peril either. Though I really like the young talent and I see a bright future, it might not happen right away. Chris Chester has been inconsistent at center and has yet to be a fulltime starter. Jared Gaither remains pretty raw, and the loss of Ogden as a mentor might stunt his development. There isn’t much blocking help from the tight ends either.
Defense: When Chris McAllister and Samari Rolle both missed time with injury last season, the secondary absolutely collapsed. The additions of Washington and Walker help mitigate some of that, pushing Corey Ivy and David Pittman firmly to the chopping block where they belong, but in a division with strong-armed QBs and talented wideouts, anything less than strong bounceback seasons from Rolle and especially McAllister spells trouble. Even before he got hurt McAllister was making uncharacteristic mistakes, forcing the safeties to work too much behind him. Both projected starters are on the wrong side of 30, and Rolle has never been much of a tackler. Ed Reed is often the most dynamic DB in the game, but he goes thru bouts where he tries to do everything and loses his playmaking edge. Having better play from the CBs and getting more production from Lawan Landry in terms of INTs and covering TEs will help, but those are big “ifs”.
The punt coverage and kick return units must improve as well. Stealing Brendon Ayanbadejo from the Bears will certainly help, but far too often most Ravens wound up on the ground when blocking for returns or covering punts. Return man Yamon Figurs lived up to expectations both positive and negative. He’s a speedy waterbug with the ball in his hands, but the ball comes out of those hands far too easily. K Matt Stover loses about 2 yards of range every season on FGs, pushing him into Morten Andersen territory very soon.
Best Case: Someone (preferably Joe Flacco) steps up at QB and becomes the dynamic leader and gunslinger the team has sorely lacked; an effective vertical passing game develops and allows Willis McGahee to have more room to run; the defensive front stays healthy and generates consistent pressure; the secondary gets back to its playmaking, ballhawking ways; the growing pains for the new coaching staff go away quickly. This is a team built to win games 17-13, not 34-28 shootouts, and having strong field position advantage and a better red zone offense can help this team make the playoffs and perhaps get to 10 wins.
Worst Case: See 2007, with no resolution to the QB or WR issues, and continued health issues that hold back the defense from being an elite unit. The only two games outside the division against sub-.500 teams from 2007 are Miami and Oakland, both of whom are potentially much improved. If the passing game and turnover ratio don’t improve quickly, the Ravens could very well repeat at 5-11 or perhaps even 3-13.
Bellwether Games: Last season the Ravens were swept by the Browns and Bengals, going 1-5 in the AFC North. Any chance of breaking out of the cellar requires turning that 1-5 into 5-1, and the Ravens can get a good start on that in Weeks 1 and 3. Home games against Cincinnati and Cleveland (with a winnable sandwich game in Houston) could really kick off the Harbaugh era and announce that 2007, not 2006, was the aberration. But if both Ohio players bring the fire and sweep the Ravens early, it’s going to be a real long year for Ozzie Newsome & Co.
Prediction: This one is a tough call, because if the Ravens find a passing attack they could very well win the AFC North. But with the QB and #2 and #3 WR jobs up for grabs and Todd Heap coming back from injury, that passing game is a giant unknown. Looking at their schedule, it had better come together quickly. That’s a tall order for a rookie head coach, a new offensive system, and so many offensive questions. These Ravens won’t be an easy team to beat or a fun team to play, but they’ll be real hard-pressed to win more than they lose. A 7-9 finish will mark what might be the end of the Ray Lewis era in Baltimore, though I believe this group can win the AFC North and steal a playoff game if the offense clicks quickly and the defense dominates.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
