| Jeff Risdon. 12th August, 2008 - 8:45 pm
 Last Season: 9-7, 1st in NFC South, +15 turnover ratio, +64 point differential
Additions: C Jeff Faine, RB Warrick Dunn, DE Marques Douglas, TE John Gilmore, CB Eugene Wilson, TE Ben Troupe, DE Jimmy Wilkerson
Subtractions: CB Brian Kelly, TE Anthony Becht, RB Michael Pittman, C John Wade, S Kalvin Pearson, DE Greg Spires, CB Torrie Cox (IR)
Rookies of Note: CB Aqib Talib, DT Dre Moore, WR Dexter Jackson
What I like
Offense: The Bucs overhauled their offensive line in the past couple offseasons, and the results are quite impressive. RT Jeremy Trueblood, RG Davin Joseph, LG Arron Sears, and T Donald Penn form a tough young core up front that plays well together. Swiping C Jeff Faine from the division rival Saints brings an upgrade to the middle of the line. With veteran LT Luke Petitgout returning from injury, the front line is clearly the strength of the offense. Trueblood is a genuinely nasty physical presence with decent agility for such a tall guy (he’s a legit 6’7”), and he and Joseph mesh well together on the right side. Faine fits in with their style, a guy who maximizes his skills with great effort and tenacity. There is decent depth with very good athleticism and versatility off the bench, better from the outside in. It’s also a very young line that already has a decent amount of experience playing together.
That front line has helped the skill position players overachieve. When RB Cadillac Williams went down with a nasty knee injury, lightly-regarded Earnest Graham stepped in and the running game didn’t miss a beat. Bringing back franchise great Warrick Dunn is a great move that will help as much in the locker room and the huddle as it does on the field even though he still has enough burst and hands to help out on 3rd down. If Williams can return to his Offensive Rookie of the Year form, the running game will be a major strength. Even without a full speed recovery for Cadillac, the duo of Graham and Dunn is adequate. Both are exceptional receivers out of the backfield, an important attribute in Coach Gruden’s version of the West Coast offense. The Bucs throw to the RB more than any other team, and nearly all the yardage gained on those plays comes from running after the catch, a skill few have mastered better than Dunn. Graham showed a nice burst and vision while carrying the ball and he sets up his blocks nicely at the second level.
Joey Galloway proved in 2007 he is still a legit #1 WR, despite turning 36 just before Thanksgiving. He logged the best yards after catch of his long career and ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards per catch. That’s even more impressive when considering that for about the first half of 2007 opposing teams dared QB Jeff Garcia to throw over the top and consistently double-teamed Galloway. Garcia lacks a big arm, but his impeccable accuracy when throwing on the move and sneaky-quick release worked wonders for the Bucs last year. He embraced the opportunity to take the reins and lead a familiar offense, and the team responded to his toughness. The new TE duo of John Gilmore and Ben Troupe won’t scare defenses, but both are solid receivers who can get open and catch the ball, which represents an upgrade over erratic, troubled Jerramy Stevens and blocking-only Anthony Becht. Getting more over-the-middle targets will help Garcia, who likes to stretch out plays. With the steady Alex Smith, the Bucs have a real solid TE group.
Defense: Anytime an entire defensive scheme gets named after your team, living up to those lofty expectations is a tall task. But last season marked a return to that greatness, after an aberrant off year in 2006. Other than the right defensive end and #2 CB position, every defensive starter is an above-average starter. OLB Derrick Brooks is slipping but remains a very effective Tampa 2 backer with his speed, instincts, and exceptional mastery of football geometry. MLB Barrett Ruud was my choice for defensive player of the month last September, leading the league in tackles (he wound up 9th overall) and dropping into coverage much better than expected. He wore down as the year wore on, but he is a rising talent. Cato June mans the other OLB spot, and he brought with him from Indy the stellar speed and coverage skills needed to succeed.
The Bucs have a pair of safeties that might be as good as any in the league. Jermaine Phillips notched a strong 2007, picking off 4 passes and rarely getting caught out of his spot in the zone. Tanard Jackson merited consideration for Defensive Rookie of the Year with his performance. It takes a special talent to start 16 games as a rookie on a defense like the Bucs, one that demands discipline, execution, and solid fundamentals. Jackson played corner in college, so the coverage skills were a known quantity, but his impressive tackling and understanding of pursuit angles and reading blocks came as a pleasant surprise. Former starter Will Allen is the #3 safety, and he represents one of the better backups in the league. Behind Allen, the Bucs have stockpiled youngsters Sabby Piscitelli and Donte Nicholson, both of whom have starting potential and also help special teams. The pool isn’t near as deep at corner (more on that later), but the Bucs do feature a legit #1 corner in Ronde Barber, still among the very best at tackling and an ideal Tampa-2 cover man. The corners have good size and both starters (Barber and Phillip Buchanon) are very good in run support, a requisite skill for Monte Kiffin’s defense.
As any Lions' fan can tell you, the key to the Tampa-2 scheme is the D-Line. The Lions have had erratic performance, but the Bucs are consistently solid up front, and that’s why (among other reasons) the Bucs have been a much more successful defense. Tampa Bay found themselves an impact youngster in last year’s first rounder, end Gaines Adams. After a slow start Adams locked in and showed an impressive package of pass rush moves without being a liability versus the run. On the other side, Greg White came from nowhere to lead the team in sacks and finish in the top 5 in the league in total QB pressures. They provide the necessary outside rush that frees up the tackles to use their speed inside to exploit slower guards and centers. Jovan Haye (a former draft sleeper of mine done right!) has moved inside and become a disruptive force, while Chris Hovan brings incomparable intensity and great run stuffing ability to the other tackle spot. That starting foursome played a great part in the defense ranking in the top 10 against both the run and pass.
What I dislike
Offense: The quarterback position with Tampa Bay is one of the most interesting, chaotic spots in all the NFL. Jeff Garcia salvaged last season with his infusion of energy, accuracy, and veteran savvy that blended perfectly with the young team around him. But we’ve seen this movie before, and Garcia has quickly gone from hero to pariah in recent years. There is a reason he’s on his 5th team in 6 years, and that reason has already reared its ugly head this offseason with Garcia’s whiny sniping about his contract and future with the team. The Bucs certainly have depth at QB, and therein lies more of the problem. Even after releasing Bruce Gradkowksi, the team still employs Luke McCown, Brian Griese, Chris Simms, and rookie Josh Johnson. With no clear pecking order and such limited snaps in practices, the overage of depth becomes more of a liability than an asset. Simms’ acrimonious situation as he recovers from a ruptured spleen has impacted the team negatively and should have been resolved a year ago. If/when Garcia either gets hurt or implodes, it’s hard to say what exactly the Bucs will do at such an important position. McCown is a capable backup though not a real good schematic fit for the offense; Griese returns to Tampa after blowing a great opportunity in Chicago and might be at the end of the line; Johnson is a project rookie that the team would love to stash on the practice squad for at least one year. In short, the Bucs are heavily reliant on a disgruntled, aging, weak-armed QB to recapture the magic. I actually do respect Garcia for all he has accomplished and I do believe he can still play, but it’s hard to remain optimistic after seeing how quickly things went south for him in SF, CLE, and DET when those teams got off to slow starts. Garcia is great to have when things are going well but the first guy thrown overboard when the ship starts listing.
I would be more optimistic if the team had a stronger WR corps. After Galloway, the receivers are Ike Hilliard, Maurice Stovall, and rookie Dexter Jackson, with Michael Clayton inexplicably still around as well. Hilliard had a very nice 2007, but it’s asking a lot for a repeat performance considering his age and statistical history. He makes a reliable underneath receiver who can make the first tackler miss, but most teams want more from their #2. Stovall has 17 catches in two injury-marred seasons. Dexter Jackson has promise as a 2nd round pick but has a lot to prove transitioning from Appalachian State and their spread offense to the NFL.
The special teams are nothing special but also not really a weakness; I could very easily insert this part in the “What I Like” section and its appearance here is more of a gut feeling towards the upcoming season than anything else. Kicker Matt Bryant is serviceable on FGs but has an alarming proclivity for kicking off out of bounds. The Bucs finally returned a kickoff for a TD for the first time in franchise history, but the overall return units remain nondescript. The coverage units do a fine job, helping punter Josh Bidwell keep his job despite falling off dramatically from his career year in 2005. His decided lack of hang time puts a lot of pressure on the athletes in coverage. I must give special mention to long snapper Andy Economos, who unofficially led all snappers in pancake blocks and has a consistent quick release on his snaps.
Defense: When you are as heavily dependent on generating pressure with your front four as the Bucs are, you had better have good depth or freakish luck in terms of health. The Bucs have questions with both aspects, though the starting 4 can be quite good. Arena League refugee Greg White will be sorely missed if his holdout extends into the season. Backing him up are the ancient Kevin Carter and the underwhelming Jimmy Wilkerson. Both are exceptional locker room veterans but are nothing more than fingers in the dyke on the field at this point. Their style dictates that the team employ undersized linemen who get by with exceptional quickness and technique, but the downside is that they are vulnerable to injury and also to physical between-the-tackles run games. The depth inside is better with retread Marques Douglas and one to watch, rookie NT Dre Moore, but the dropoff from Haye and Hovan to Douglas and Ryan Sims is significant. When the Bucs rested starters and gave the backups more reps in Weeks 16 and 17, the front 4 performance leapt off the Sunshine Bridge to the bottom of the red-tide plagued Bay.
Depth is also an issue at LB, an issue made more pressing by Derrick Brooks’ advancing age and need for more rest. There is indeed potential with youngsters Quincy Black and Geno Hayes, but Monte Kiffin demands mistake-free reliability before trusting newcomers. A healthy Patrick Chukwurah will help, as he’s the only LB on the roster with any sort of blitzing proclivity. The Bucs almost never blitz and rush just their front four more than any team except Indianapolis. When the front four gets the job done there is no problem, but when their play falls off, the lack of depth and inexperience with pressure schemes by the linebackers is exposed.
Cornerback could be another problem spot. Ronde Barber is still an elite talent and a better football player than his more celebrated twin, and he’s perfect for what coordinator Monte Kiffin wants. It’s the rest of the corners that I question. Philip Buchanon is solid but better against the run than the pass, and making the jump from nickel back to #2 is a leap he might struggle with. Rookie 1st rounder Aqib Talib, converted safety and Pats castoff Eugene Wilson, and Sammy Davis represent the rest of the corner crop. Talib has his positives (size, nose for the ball), but he needs seasoning and discipline, not to mention how to tackle. Read any other preseason guide and the words “Wilson is a project” will show up, and Davis sticks around for special teams and his tackling. While it’s true the Bucs use their nickel and dime packages less often than most teams, their schedule presents a real challenge in maintaining that stance; the Saints (twice), Packers, Panthers (twice), Seahawks, Cowboys, and Lions all utilize three and four WR sets liberally.
Best Case: The first 12 games of 2008 are about as fortuitous as any team can expect. Despite losing their stud RB and having essentially one WR, the offense functioned at a high enough level that the defense didn’t have to win games by themselves, even though they were often capable of doing just that. A repeat or reasonable facsimile is about as good as the Bucs can hope for. Hopefully the coaching staff learned the painful lesson that resting players for the playoffs is a terrible idea, should that situation rise again. Developing a more varied passing attack and more consistent kicking game would help in that regard.
Worst Case: If the DL cannot continue to produce and the youngsters in the secondary can’t continue to play consistently well (see 2006), the defense suddenly falls apart. Any LB injury or falloff is a real problem, as is any slowdown to Joey Galloway at wideout. The QB drama must not flare up in-season, and the running game has to remain strong no matter who is toting the rock. Losing a Week 2 home date with lowly Atlanta could be a catastrophic sign. An unexpected failure of the young OL to continue progressing would be another.
Bellwether Games: Weeks 6-8 will determine if this is a playoff team or an also-ran in the weak NFC. Home dates with Carolina and Seattle are must-win games if the Bucs hope to win the NFC South, and the Week 8 trip to Dallas follows. If the Bucs are to be taken seriously as a legit contender, they must win at least two of those games. A 3-game losing streak from that patch means the Bucs are likely no better than 6-10 and searching for a lot of new and painful answers next offseason.
Prediction: This team has rolled from 5 wins to 11, then plummeted to 4 wins and back up to last season’s 9-7 finish. The reasons for the rollercoaster ride are varied, but chief among them is QB play. Despite all the candidates in place, I simply do not trust the fortunes of any QB on this roster to lead the Bucs back to the playoffs, certainly not with this cast of wideouts. Expect another strong season from the defense, and if they can force enough turnovers and dominate field position there is hope for another NFC South title. But if the NFL were a stock exchange, I’m selling the Bucs high. I see a 7-9 record and a disappointing 3rd place finish despite what looks to be an easy schedule and a very good defense.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
