| Jeff Risdon. 13th August, 2008 - 4:01 pm
 Last Season: 7-9, T-3rd in NFC North; -14 point differential, -1 turnover differential
Additions: WR Brandon Lloyd, WR Marty Booker, RB Kevin Jones
Subtractions: WR Bernard Berrian, WR Muhsin Muhammad, RB Cedric Benson, QB Brian Griese, DT Darwin Walker, S Adam Archuleta, G Ruben Brown, LB/ST Brendon Ayanbadejo, TE John Gilmore
Rookies of Note: RB Matt Forte, T Chris Williams, DT Marcus Harrison, WR Earl Bennett
What I like
Offense: Last year was one of those “anything that can go wrong did go wrong” years for the Bears' offense. While it’s still certainly lacking some key pieces, chances are that they get more breaks and favorable bounces this season. C Olin Kreutz remains one of the best overall centers in the league, an excellent signal-caller who excels at maintaining balance and holding ground despite being on the smaller side. The TE tandem of Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark is far and away the best in the division, and they complement one another nicely. Olsen was limited by injury as a rookie, but he has the ability to stretch the field and make big plays. Clark is a criminally underappreciated possession-type receiver and a very good chip blocker. Second round draftee Matt Forte is my early pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He thrived at Tulane running behind a line that featured nobody who will ever sniff an NFL camp, and the opponents stacked the box knowing Forte was essentially the entire offense. He runs with a similar style to former embattled starter Cedric Benson, but Forte has more of an outside burst and attacks the hole with more authority. Benson flopped miserably last year when handed the starting job, and his release following a couple of boneheaded alcohol arrests relieves a burden both on the depth chart and in the locker room. The OL will almost certainly be better with Jon Tait moving back to RT and RG Roberto Garza back into a comfort zone. The Bears should be able to run right again.
There is some young potential at WR with Mark Bradley and rookie Earl Bennett, plus 7th round rookie Marcus Monk, a very tall and fast prospect with major injury and toughness issues. If he can stay upright, the Bears may have found their answer for a red zone and 3rd down target. Devin Hester is the most dynamic punt returner in NFL history, a threat to run back every single kick. He cut back on his negative plays last season. Offensive Coordinator Ron Turner is working on creating more ways to get Hester into the open field on offense, and a full year of experience and training camp at wideout should help Hester’s route recognition and precision. Kicker Robbie Gould was recently rewarded with a nice contract, and he has earned it by making 86% of all FG attempts inside 50 yards in his 3-year career. The special teams have been outstanding in all facets; last season the Bears would have been lucky to win more than 4 games without their superior special teams. They did lose their primary coverage demon in Ayanbadejo, but it’s a very well-coached unit, and Devin Hester is proven capable of the unimaginable.
Defense: There is still quite a bit of talent on this side of the ball. They don’t get the press they deserve, but their starting CB's are one of the best tandems in the league. Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher haven’t played well in the same season together yet, but both have belonged in the Pro Bowl when they’ve been on their games. Tillman is one of the best run-support corners in the league, and he positions himself well in coverage. Vasher is more of a playmaker and uses his exceptional closing speed to help mask some sloppy footwork. With young depth behind them in Trumaine McBride and rookie draft sleeper Zack Bowman, plus veteran nickel Ricky Manning Jr., the Bears have as good a CB corps as any team in the league. OLB's Lance Briggs and Hunter Hillenmeyer both are better than average in coverage as Hillenmeyer consistently provides under-the-radar blanketing of opposing TE's. With rangy MLB Brian Urlacher still feared as a thumper across the middle, the defensive back seven is one of the best in the league, particularly against the pass.
When DT Tommie Harris is healthy, he is one of (if not the) the very best interior line disruptors around. He commands constant double teams and can still generate pressure up the gut without sacrificing his gap responsibility. I give DE Alex Brown a lot of grief for his strangely timed contract demands and his propensity for ignoring backside containment, but he still can get to the QB and makes some plays. On the other side, solid vet Wali Ogunleye comes off a 9-sack, 58-tackle season where he also forced 6 fumbles. A repeat of that impact is unlikely, but he can reliably produce at least 80% of those totals again. It is a critical season for DE Mark Anderson, who notched an impressive 12 sacks as a rookie in ‘06 but slumped badly and was a major liability against the run in ‘07. A lot of that is related to Harris’ health, and if the big man in the middle is commanding attention away from him, Anderson has the speed and balance to turn the corner as an explosive nickel package rusher. Punter Brad Maynard wasn’t quite as awesome as his breakout ’06 season, but he remains one of the best net punters in the league.
What I dislike
Offense: This team still has the worst overall collection of talent at the offensive skill positions (QB, RB, WR) in the entire league. They let their two best WR's (Bernard Berrian, Muhsin Muhammad) depart via free agency, and they were perhaps the worst starting duo in the NFC in ’07. Replacing them are Dolphins castoff Marty Booker and Redskins castoff Brandon Lloyd. Booker is a slightly quicker version of Muhammad, while Lloyd has quickly worn out his welcome in both SF and WAS with his immaturity and lack of attention to details like blocking, catching, and route running. Mark Bradley has shown flashes of being a pretty capable #2 WR, but injuries have ravaged his career thus far. I really like the drafting of Forte, but he plays with the same basic style as Ced Benson, a little upright and without great acceleration. With no real outside threat, teams can and will stack the box to slow down Forte’s forte, which is exploiting inside gaps and plowing forward. Adrian Peterson the Lesser has not done as well as expected in the change-of-pace back role, and Garrett Wolfe is a woefully undersized novelty back. Summer addition Kevin Jones could provide a spark, but his career has been marred by serious injury problems.
Compounding the issue of having a physical, between-the-tackles RB is that those type of backs are heavily reliant on having a strong run-blocking OL. The Bears are rearranging the entire OL, save All Pro C Olin Kreutz. The line went from a strength to a major weakness seemingly overnight, and while it probably cannot get any worse, it’s not likely to get a lot better with all the rearranging. Rookie LT Chris Williams will definitely help the pass blocking, but scouts almost unanimously labeled his run blocking as “soft”. Further complicating the line mix is Williams’ recent back surgery, which will keep him out until at least October and probably longer. The depth up front is lacking, as well. One of the major problems last season was that the OL depth was exposed as woefully inadequate and overestimated, but both Terrence Metcalf and John St. Clair return despite being clearly overmatched. Josh Beekman, a rookie who rarely played last year, offers some hope, but it’s telling that a team desperate for help up front kept him on the bench. Consider this: only Kreutz and perhaps Tait would start for any other NFC North team, and none of the Bears' bench linemen would make more than a handful of other rosters.
And then there is the QB situation. I expect Kyle Orton to emerge over Rex Grossman as the starter. Orton fits Ron Turner’s offense better and avoids the egregious mistakes that have plagued Grossman. He doesn’t have as big an arm, but Orton does a good job of putting the ball where the receiver can make a play after the catch. Still, immaturity (which no longer appears to be an issue) and a nasty tendency to stare down his primary receiver have dogged Orton. He’s also not real adept at play-action fakes or at letting downfield patterns develop. That Grossman is still on this team and ostensibly still a legit option to start has got to be painful for Bears faithful. When he gets great protection and remembers his mechanics, Grossman is a gunslinger who can carve up defenses. In 7-on-7 drills and controlled practices Rex is as good as anyone. But when facing even moderate pressure or forced to move around, Rex morphs into an almost freakishly incompetent turnover machine, and his lack of size and speed (he is the shortest and slowest starter in the league, per Combine results) are exacerbated. There is no veteran safety net or QB of the future behind them, which says more about the front office’s inability than it does their confidence in either Orton or Grossman.
Defense: The past two seasons have demonstrated two things: how indispensable Tommie Harris and Mike Brown are to the success of the defense, and how poorly coached and ill-prepared this unit often looks despite having a lot of talent, both on the field and in the coaching staff. Plain and simple--when Harris and Brown are on the field, it’s an elite unit; when they are hurt, and that has been more often than not the last two years (Brown has played in just 7 games; Harris has missed only four but played much of ’07 badly inhibited by injury) the run defense is often terrible and the pass rush ineffective at best. Brian Urlacher is the face of the franchise, but #54: has an arthritic back, is coming off neck surgery, demanded a new contract despite still being one of the 5 highest paid defenders in the league and is currently holding out, is now on the wrong side of 30 with a tremendous amount of mileage on the tires, and has only played one of the last three seasons anywhere close to his hype (that was 2007, where he was consistently great). The Tampa-2 base defense the Bears employ does not work without a dynamic presence at MLB (see: Detroit), and Urlacher has ventured into the age and medical realms where most great MLBs decline rapidly (see: Jack Lambert and Dick Butkus). Starting safety Adam Archuleta was deservedly cut, but that leaves a void to be filled by largely unproven players at both safety spots if Brown gets hurt again. They do have some young talent at the spot, but other than the up-and-down Danieal Manning there is very little proven game experience.
Other than Tommie Harris, the DL is a major weakness. 3rd round draftee Marcus Harrison will probably start, and behind them are Anthony Adams and Dusty Dvoracek. Adams is a classic 4th man in a 4-man rotation, and Dvoracek has played in one game in two years thanks to a pair of devastating injuries. Schematically the DL was a major disappointment in 2007, as the line neglected gap containment in favor of trying to get as far into the backfield as they could on every snap, including running plays. It stands out on tape even more drastically on second and third viewings, yet the coaches never implemented any changes or appeared to realize the problem.
Depth is also an issue on the DL and LB. Like at safety, there is some young talent that has the potential to step up, but thus far Dvoracek, Jamar Williams, Matt Toeaina, and Michael Okwo have accomplished nothing at the NFL level. If the youngsters step up quickly, which is indeed possible, the defensive front should get back to being an asset and the run defense could get back to being a major strength. Big “if”.
I’m also not a fan of Head Coach Lovie Smith. Too often the Bears appear unprepared for what the opponent is trying to accomplish, and his in-game clock and field management need improvement. He should be on the proverbial hot seat, and he hasn’t always shown the mettle to handle that kind of pressure in a manner that conveys inspiration and confidence in his players.
Best Case: The OL congeals quickly and the power running game that defines Chicago Bears football reemerges; Orton steps up and answers the QB question, getting chemistry with Olsen and his young wideouts; Tommie Harris stays healthy and wreaks havoc on the interior DL; Brian Urlacher puts forth another deserving Pro Bowl season and leaves his selfish contract demands behind, and Lance Briggs continues to shine; a more consistent pass rush forces more turnovers and eases the pressure off the offense; both starting CBs play well at the same time, and the young safeties develop quickly. If they can steal one of their first two games (@IND, @CAR) and then split the next two at home (TB, PHI)--no easy task--the positive momentum could inspire the defense and fan base and carry the Bears to a Wild Card spot and 9 wins. There is not a team in the league that feeds off the crowd more than the Bears, both positive and negative. They did finish strong last season, whipping Green Bay and denying New Orleans a playoff spot.
Worst Case: The offense doesn’t show drastic improvement in terms of turnovers and rushing efficiency; neither Grossman nor Orton mitigate the desperate cries for QB help; the OL remains a weakness and the running game cannot ease the pressure off the young wideouts to play above their collective heads; Gould and Hester cannot repeat the special teams magic, with Hester regressing back into the guy just as likely to give the other team the ball than he is to make a great return; the pass rush sputters without blitzing; the up-the-gut defense cannot handle the opposing run offense, which happened far too often in 2007. A slow start and Coach Smith could lose this team quickly, and enough negative momentum could put the Bears in line for the #1 overall draft pick in 2009.
Prediction: The schedule makers did the Bears no favors. The tough start highlighted above could very well put the Bears at 0-4, and then there is the brutal stretch in weeks 11-16: @GB, @STL, @MIN, JAX, NO, GB. They could be lucky to win more than one of those games. Much like their recent Chicago hoops brethren, a lot of individual talent doesn’t form a great or often even a competitive team. I hold out some possibility that the best-case scenario could happen and the Bears eke out an 8-8 season. But with all the major issues on offense and the tough schedule, I think it’s far more likely the Bears struggle through a long 5-11 season.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
