| Jeff Risdon. 18th August, 2008 - 8:53 pm
 Last Season: 16-0, won AFC East, lost in Super Bowl, +315 point differential, +16 turnover ratio
Additions: CB Fernando Bryant, RB Lamont Jordan, CB Jason Webster, LB Victor Hobson, TE Marcus Pollard, T Barry Stokes
Subtractions: CB Asante Samuel, TE Kyle Brady, LB Roosevelt Colvin, WR Donte Stallworth, CB Randall Gay, WR Troy Brown, S Eugene Wilson, S Mel Mitchell
Rookies of Note: LB Jerod Mayo, CB Terrence Wheatley, CB Jonathan Wilhite, KR Matt Slater
What I like
Offense: Last season the Patriots sported the most prolific offense in NFL history, and all the key players remain in place. QB Tom Brady set an NFL record with 50 TD passes, including a record 23 to WR Randy Moss. The Pats scored at last 20 points in every game, topping 30 points in 12 weeks and topping 48 points 4 times in a 5 game midseason span. While a repeat of that unprecedented deluge of points is almost certainly impossible, it’s not like this offense is not capable of leading the league in scoring once again. The only players of significant loss from that group are blocking TE Kyle Brady (9 catches for 70 yards) and #3 WR Donte Stallworth (46 catches for 697 yards), who they made no effort to keep.
Tom Brady’s awesomeness cannot be denied. That sounds obscenely juvenile, but there truly is no better way to describe Brady in 2007. He recorded the 2nd highest single-season QB rating, the 3rd highest yardage total, tied the NFL record for most completions resulting in a 1st down, and threw just 8 INTs in nearly 600 attempts. His decision making and seemingly effortless handling of pressure, paired with his pinpoint accuracy on deep throws and killer instinct nonpareil, won Brady the MVP and was the engine behind the greatest season of offensive football ever. For years Brady had put up good numbers and racked up wins with a largely nondescript receiving corps, so he took full advantage of GM Scott Pioli adding Moss, Stallworth, Wes Welker, and Kelley Washington in the summer of 07.
Randy Moss just might be the best player in the league regardless of position. He’s certainly in the top 3 when he puts forth maximum effort, which he did much more frequently in 2007 than in his regrettable Raiders' era. A dynamic package of size, speed, hands, and grit, Moss can beat any coverage on any play. His effort can wane, particularly when blocking or when his team his way ahead, but Moss is the common denominator on the two highest-scoring teams of all time. Wes Welker is the perfect complement to Moss, a shifty slot receiver who excels on screens and shallow crosses. Welker led the league in catches and is a nifty runner who secures the ball and transitions from receiver to runner quickly. Because the Patriots often employ schemes with 3 wideouts, or an H-back or TE split out, opposing safeties have to choose whether to help on Moss or Welker. Brady identifies the single coverage and exploits the matchup with ruthless precision, and if the defense picks up both Moss and Welker, Brady has no problem throwing to Watson or Faulk or Gaffney.
Though last seen having issues in the final two playoff games, the offensive line is one of the better units in the league. Led by feisty LG Logan Mankins, the line does a fine job of giving Brady good throwing lanes and a stable pocket. C Dan Koppen excels at the shotgun snap, which is important because the Patriots use that formation more than any other team. The right side of Stephen Neal and Nick Kaczur is one of the best run blocking sides in the AFC; both attack well in space and sustain their blocks nicely. Laurence Maroney is a great stylistic RB fit for the blocking. He hits full speed quickly and runs with great power and vision although he is earning a reputation for being very hot and cold (fantasy geeks take note).
Defense: The front line is the rock on which the Patriots’ solid 3-4 scheme is built, and it’s one of the best and deepest in the league. NT Vince Wilfork has a great knack for beating double teams and getting upfield consistently. Both he and DE Ty Warren are in the primes of their careers, and they blend together perfectly. Warren is a stout run defender who has tremendous lateral agility for a man of his considerable mass. The other end, Richard Seymour, is the most talented of the bunch. Seymour is looking to bounce back from an injury-plagued season where he never quite reached optimal health, and he is a perennial Pro Bowler on merit. Backup end Jarvis Green is the best pass rusher of the group and would start for just about every other team in the league. Tall backup Mike Wright showed he can capably clog the middle despite weighing under 300 pounds, and the Patriots coaching staff reportedly loves young LeKevin Smith, a beefy space-eater who will see more time in 2008.
The linebackers are being retooled for the younger and quicker, bringing in solid vet Victor Hobson from the rival Jets and drafting Jerod Mayo in the 1st round a year after signing versatile Adalius Thomas. Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi start at OLB and both are still effective despite being over 33. Vrabel is one of the best blitzing LBs in the league, and at 260+ pounds he is much bigger than most guys in his role. Thomas can play all 4 LB spots and is consistent in both coverage and run support. Rookie Mayo has incredible measurables and showed a knack for big plays at Tennessee even though he has distinct vulnerabilities to play action fakes and draw plays. Fellow rookie Shawn Crable adds pass rush chutzpah and great size outside, while former Wolverine teammate Pierre Woods appears poised to play a more prominent role with his improved coverage skills. The versatility and quickness of this group sets it apart, and Bill Belichick pays more attention to his LB's than any other position and understands how to maximize their effectiveness. Very seldom are any of the Patriot LB's out of position, and they diagnose plays pre-snap better than anyone.
The special teams coverage units consistently rank among the best in the game, thanks to smart vets like Larry Izzo and Kelley Washington who embrace their roles in coverage. Adding Sam Aiken from Buffalo will only improve the units as he is one of the best gunners in the league. Long snapper Lonie Paxton shows amazing consistency in delivering his deep snaps to the exact same spot consistantly.
What I dislike
Offense: The primary question is how much regression takes place from the record-setting 2007. The Giants and Chargers laid out a blueprint for effectively attacking this offense, bringing heat up the middle and improving short route coverage. The weakest part of the OL are the gaps around RG Stephen Neal, and getting pressure in that area clouds Brady’s vision and passing lanes to the short cross and drag routes that Welker thrives upon. It also forces the backs to stay in and block, which is not Laurence Maroney’s forte. RT Nick Kaczur has had issues against 3-4 fronts, failing to find the correct assignment when the DE lines up wide or the ILB shows blitz. OC Josh McDaniel has to find an effective counter to those tactics. The RBs behind Maroney are better receivers than blockers, though in Kevin Faulk’s case that is more an indication of his great receiving skills than a lack of blocking aptitude.
There are questions about motivation, as well. All those points, all that domination, and they didn’t win the Super Bowl. How does that weigh on Brady, who spent a significant portion of the offseason enjoying himself instead of poring over film and working out? Or Moss, one of the most fickle personalities in pro sports? How well does the line, last seen as the proverbial rented mule in the Super Bowl, bounce back and adjust to the inevitable heavy doses of pressure right up the gut? To a lesser extent, can Jabar Gaffney or bust-in-waiting Chad Jackson step into the departed Stallworth’s shoes, and will Ben Watson or David Thomas be able to handle Kyle Brady’s impressive blocking load?
Anytime you have such a cadre of Pro Bowl talent across the roster, depth behind the starters is almost always a problem, and the Patriots are no exception. The unthinkable is an injury to Tom Brady; the backup QBs are college backup Matt Cassel and young Matt Gutierrez, who left Michigan when he couldn’t beat out Chad Henne. 3rd round pick Kevin O’Connell figures in the mix, though he was considered a late-round project by even his more vocal scouting supporters. Behind Maroney at RB, the Pats are banking on reclamation project Lamont Jordan. As I mentioned above I believe it’s a great move and that Jordan is an excellent fit, but he needs to prove it on the field. Kevin Faulk is strictly a 3rd down back and Sammy Morris is coming back from a devastating shoulder injury (his collarbone split apart from his sternum). Up front the story is a little better, with Russ Hochstein and Wesley Britt both proven capable reserves and Ryan O’Callaghan showing some promise. One of the things nobody likes to dwell on is that the Patriots have swung and missed badly in recent drafts, but the fact is that the depth on this team is vastly inferior to the other AFC contenders and all those drafting misfires play a big role in that.
Defense: The Patriots secondary has defined the word “patchwork” for years, and this year will be no exception. They will miss the bravado and big-play ability of Asante Samuel, though his coverage skills tend to be overrated by most fans. With Randall Gay also gone, the new starters are (probably) Ellis Hobbs and Fernando Bryant, not exactly a sexy duo. It’s not as bad as some would have you believe, but with Bryant’s inability to go more than 3 quarters without needing to be carted off the field, it appears Coach Belichick is comfortable using his #6 corner (say hello to Antwain Spann or rookie Jonathan Wilhite) extensively once again. The depth is more of an issue at safety. The picture: Rodney Harrison is pushing 36 and hasn’t played more than 12 games in a season since 2004; Brandon Meriweather comes off a disappointing rookie season where he performed much better at corner; plucky James Sanders makes the transition from part-time to full-time fulltimer, backed up by undrafted free agent Ray Ventrone, who belongs on the practice squad. Tank Williams, signed to play both safety and LB, is out for the season already. To be fair, they’ve entered seasons with barer cupboards and managed to win Super Bowls, so this is more nitpicky than a pressing problem, but it’s clearly not the strength of the team. They also signed John Lynch, who greatly helps their depth issue at safety.
You’ve no doubt heard about the advancing age of the Patriot LB corps. It does concern me to some degree, but the infusion of Jerod Mayo and Victor Hobson into prominent roles tempers that angst. The one irreplaceable part is Mike Vrabel, who is both the best pass rusher and the most reliable tackler once rushers get beyond the DL.
Both K Stephen Gostkowski and P Chris Hanson are merely adequate, though Gostkowski is one of the better kickoff artists in the league. Because the offense was so potent Hanson didn’t get much work, but when he did he failed to impress.
Best Case: The agonizing Super Bowl loss that ruined a perfect season motivates this group to keep the pedal to the metal all season long. Smart signings like Victor Hobson, Fernando Bryant, and Lamont Jordan all pay off. None of their AFC East rivals were close to the Pats last year (the Jets game in Dec. was in a blizzard), and sweeping the division with dominance keeps them in great position for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Another undefeated regular season isn’t likely, but it’s certainly not out of the question. This is still the team to beat and the favorite to win Super Bowl XLIII.
Worst Case: The motivation wanes and the offense regresses more than expected; Maroney can’t handle the full-time RB gig and none of the backups capably fill the void; the pass rush sputters and opposing offenses can exploit the secondary for big plays; the lack of depth at many spots gets exposed due to injuries to starters. Even with all that, this team should have no problem winning the AFC East by 2 or more games. Not having homefield advantage in the playoffs and drawing a hot team in the Wild Card round represents a bad season.
Bellwether Games: After opening the season with 3 games that they should win by a combined 100 points (KC, @NYJ, MIA), the Pats return from their early bye week by heading to the west coast and facing the 49ers and Chargers in Weeks 5 and 6. While the Niners almost certainly aren’t a playoff team, they do match up well to attack the Patriots’ weaknesses. It’s the following week that is the major challenge. The Chargers are loaded and ready to knock the Patriots off the pedestal after coming close in the AFC Championship game. If New England sweeps the difficult roadie, they just might have a shot at another 16-0 regular season. Losing either game presents some difficult questions, but losing both games could be an ominous sign of impending doom.
Prediction: Still the best team in the NFL by a wider margin than most people give them credit, the Patriots will have no problem racking up at least 11 wins and another AFC East title. The schedule has enough rough patches that a repeat 16-0 isn’t going to happen, but barring a virulent injury bug, New England finishes with a 14-2 record and is once again the team to beat throughout the playoffs.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
