| Jeff Risdon. 21st August, 2008 - 6:27 pm
 Last Season: 7-9, 2nd in AFC West, -89 point differential, +1 turnover ratio
Additions: WR Keary Colbert, S Marquand Manuel, LB Boss Bailey, LB Niko Koutouvides, DT Dewayne Robertson, K Matt Prater, S Marlon McCree, WR Darrell Jackson, C Casey Weigmann
Subtractions: RB Travis Henry, S John Lynch, C Chris Myers, K Jason Elam, LB Ian Gold, WR Javon Walker, T Matt Lepsis, S Nick Ferguson, RB Mike Bell, FB Paul Smith
Rookies of Note: T Ryan Clady, WR/KR Eddie Royal
What I like
Offense: QB Jay Cutler is poised for a breakout season in his third year. Now that his diabetes diagnosis is under control, his strength and energy level will remain where they need to be, which was the primary knock on Cutler. Coming out of Vanderbilt, many scouts compared Cutler to Brett Favre with his gunslinger mentality, rocket arm, great accuracy on midrange and deep throws, and enthusiastic leadership and toughness. All offseason Cutler has been making those comparison look prescient.
Cutler frequently gets lots of time to throw thanks to an underrated OL. Though the Broncos linemen are best known for their trap-style run blocking, they very quietly allowed the fewest hurries per pass attempt in the league in 2007. Adding 1st round tackle Ryan Clady will only make that stronger. Clady needs seasoning but he has potential to be a Pro Bowl fixture at LT. C Tom Nalen returning from a torn biceps will also help, though that will show more in the running game. When he went down last season, the Broncos were unable to run between the tackles, which made it all that much easier for defenses to cover the Broncos receivers. Getting LG Ben Hamilton back in the lineup would also make a positive impact, as he missed all of 2007. With youngsters like Ryan Harris, Erik Pears, and rookie strongman Kory Lichtensteiger, and veterans Montrae Holland and Casey Weigmann the Broncos have depth up front and potential for a return to their dominant ways of the not-too-distant past. At worst, they will be tougher and deeper than last year.
Denver has a nice TE duo in Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler. Graham has never quite lived up to his 1st round draft status, but he’s among the better blockers in the league and has great hands. He pairs nicely with Scheffler, who is almost criminally underappreciated. Scheffler has the athleticism to split out and uses his great height to his advantage. He also has great hands and has an innate ability to always fall forward and stretch out for an extra yard or two. The pair should combine for around 80 catches and 1000 yards and put consistent pressure on opposing LB's and safeties that will help open better running lanes. With dynamic Brandon Marshall (more on him later) stretching the field, the Broncos have provided Cutler with some weapons to succeed.
Defense: The Broncos sport one of the best CB duos in the league in Champ Bailey and Dre Bly. Bailey is widely regarded as the best cover man in the game, capable of shutting down even the best receivers. He’s also a very solid tackler and isn’t afraid to lower his shoulder and deliver a big hit. That is certainly not true of Bly, but the #2 CB is an accomplished ballhawk with tremendous closing speed and confidence in his ability. When you consider the AFC West features three opponents (not to mention the Broncos themselves) with WR corps that all rank in the bottom 10, and both the Raiders and Chiefs will start inexperienced QB's and have OL issues, having a pair of playmaking corners helps cover qquite a few deficiencies. That makes their quality depth, led by Domonique Foxworth, a luxury.
Denver sports a cadre of young talent across the front 7 of the defense, and that talent might start paying higher dividends this season after a couple of down years. End Elvis Dumervil thrives at pressuring the QB despite being freakishly short for his position (he’s 5’11”). Put simply, all those mammoth tackles have trouble finding him and getting any leverage, and Dumervil has excellent acceleration once the QB is in his sights. Tim Crowder showed decent pass rush ability in limited time as a rookie, earning more snaps at the end of the season and proving he’s ready to make the next step. He is probably the best run defender amongst the ends already. Crowder was the 2nd round pick in 2007, and the 1st round pick that year was also spent on the DL, end Jarvis Moss. Moss is the physical antithesis of Dumervil, a tall (6’7”), lean athlete who disrupts passing lanes and keeps blockers at arms’ length. He is coming back from a broken leg and should see increased action in pass rush packages. With solid-if-unspectacular veterans John Engleberger and Ebenezer Ekuban still in place, the Broncos have great depth at end and mentorship to help the young bucks develop into something special.
Bringing in Dewayne Robertson to man the middle is a risk worth taking. Overwhelmed as a NT in the Jets’ inexplicable devotion to the 3-4 scheme, Robertson should excel as a 4-3 DT if his chronically balky knees are up to it. Paired with Marcus Thomas, another rookie in 2007, Robertson should help shore up the gaping hole that was the Broncos run defense last year. Thomas finished the season playing with more confidence and started to figure out how to use his considerable mass more effectively. While it’s still not likely to be great this year, the Broncos DL should be much improved against both the run and pass.
That improvement should help LB DJ Williams, a rangy player moving back outside after struggling in the middle. Williams is a solid tackler and a pretty good cover man, and moving him back to WLB will keep blockers off him, which is important because he has proven he cannot do that for himself. The Broncos have a heated battle for the starting middle spot between Nate Webster and newcomer Niko Koutouvides. Both have played well and impressed coaches in camp, and having two capable players is a good problem to have. Import Boss Bailey will start on the strong side, and coverage is his forte. That’s a welcome skill, as the Broncos had almost zero ability to cover opposing TEs last year.
What I dislike
Offense: After Cutler, the skill positions are chock full of question marks. Brandon Marshall has all the tools of a #1 wideout, except he’s a knucklehead who severed tendons in his hand when he crashed thru a television while horsing around. It was merely the latest incident that drew his maturity, or lack thereof, into question. He will miss the first three games under league suspension for his off-field antics. The team is quite high on Eddie Royal (as I am), but he’s a rookie coming from a WR-by-committee program with a noodle-armed QB, not the precise lasers of Cutler. Darrell Jackson is on his 3rd team in 3 years for a reason. Several reasons actually, chief among them his alarming inability to catch the ball, particularly on 3rd down. Brandon Stokley fared well in his first season in Denver when he was able to stay on the field, but he’s had major durability issues for years, and at 32 that’s not likely to change. Keary Colbert was consistently awful in WR-desperate Carolina, and Samie Parker was little better before the WR-desperate Chiefs showed him the door. Some Broncos fans and Mike Shanahan appear overly enamored with the name-recognition value of the WR cast, but you shouldn’t buy that swampland until proven otherwise.
There is the tricky matter of the running back position. With the release of troubled Travis Henry, the Broncos will turn to Selvin Young and/or a cast of youngsters you’ve probably never heard of. I critique this carefully because Shanahan has a long and glorious history of unearthing highly productive RBs from out of nowhere, and their run blocking remains pretty strong. Young showed nice burst and exceptional hands as a rookie, but he’s not real sturdy and is probably best suited as a 3rd down back. Rookie Ryan Torain had potential, but he is out until at least November with an elbow injury. Andre Hall put up decent numbers in limited duty last year, but notched over one quarter of his 216 yards on one carry and is one of the worst pass blocking RBs in recent memory. Tiny rookie Anthony Aldridge is a waterbug-type with blazing speed and quickness, but he is slight of frame even for a small guy. This offense has made filet mignon from ground chuck (Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Quentin Griffin) before, so it’s way too premature to write off the Broncos from having a strong running game. But the cupboard is pretty bare, and the interior OL has enough questions that it might not be able to help out as much as it did in past years.
Replacing long-time kicker Jason Elam won’t be easy. Coach Shanahan gushes about Matt Prater, but keep in mind Prater failed to hold the job in Atlanta, replaced by Morten Andersen and his 40 yard max range. Mastering the winds and elements in Denver is a tough stretch for a guy who flopped at kicking in a dome.
Defense: As I mentioned, there is a good stock of young talent that will continue to improve. When that improvement and effectiveness happens is subject to question. Teams are going to pound the ball between the tackles until guys like Marcus Thomas and Tim Crowder prove they can consistently stop it. As good as Dumervil is as a pass rusher, he might be the worst run defending DE in the league. It’s between Dumervil and Mark Anderson of the Bears. Jarvis Moss wasn’t much better in his abbreviated rookie season. Those young linemen have to step it up against the run, because newcomers Bailey and Koutouvides aren’t exactly stout run defenders either at the LB spots. Having watched Bailey closely in Detroit, he’s one of those guys with great physical tools that fail to translate into being a good football player. Perhaps being paired with his outstanding brother Champ will bring out the best in Boss. It needs to, because the depth chart behind the top 4 LBs is not pretty.
Safety is another concern. Hamza Abdullah will start at one spot, probably at strong safety. The youngster has nice size and played reasonably well on passing downs last year, but it’s a big jump from nickel safety to every down starter. The other spot comes down to former Charger Marlon McCree or journeyman Marquand Manuel. McCree is serviceable but undersized, while Denver is Manuel’s 4th team in 4 years, topping McCree’s 4 teams in 6 years. As with Darrell Jackson, there is a reason for the chronic change of address. At least the team made the tough (and correct) decision to part with declining legend John Lynch, whose loss of range was painful to watch. Poor safety play was a large reason why opponents consistently killed the Broncos with play action passes--even the Lions got in the act, probably the only game all season where Jon Kitna tried it more than once.
Best Case: All the young talent on both sides of the ball comes of age quickly; Brandon Marshall matures beyond the 5th grade and becomes the dynamic #1 WR he is capable of being, and he and Cutler become a lethal duo; Prater makes the fans forget Jason Elam; the run defense stiffens, while Shanahan works his magic and finds another effective RB from out of nowhere. If they can manage to avoid clunkers like the DET and CHI losses of a year ago, this team can sneak into the second AFC Wild Card spot and 2nd place in the AFC West, poised to pounce if San Diego unexpectedly falls. They’ll need divine intervention to win a playoff game though.
Worst Case: Jay Cutler stagnates because the iffy talent around him fails to develop; the OL struggles with injuries again; the run defense remains a sieve and the young D-linemen fail to step up their collective game; the gap fails to close from the combined 64-6 drubbing in the two games against the Chargers. Mike Shanahan put his own neck squarely on the chopping block with his power play to force out GM Ted Sundquist, and while he’s a difficult person, he’s also an outstanding coach and it would be a major loss if he is shown the door after a poor season.
Bellwether Games: Weeks 2 and 3 bring the division rival Chargers and the high-flying Saints to Denver. If the Broncos have any shot at building momentum and capturing a playoff berth, it’s imperative they have a strong showing against tough competition like this. And they cannot afford to follow that up with a loss to downtrodden Kansas City the following week. The second half of their schedule looks a lot easier than the first half, so if the Broncos can notch some early wins against better competition they can seize their own playoff destiny early.
Prediction: It’s all a question of when--when does Cutler make the next step, when does the young defensive core emerge into a force, when will guys like Eddie Royal and Ryan Clady become above-average starters, when will the special teams get better? If that all happens by about midseason, the Broncos should finish 2nd in the AFC West and perhaps edge into the final Wild Card spot. If it doesn’t all happen this year, that 7-9 mark in 2007 might be tough to match and the Raiders might pass them. Both my eyes and my gut tell me this team is a lot closer to the former than the latter. Denver finishes 9-7, and if they beat both Cleveland in Week 10 and Buffalo in Week 16, they get into the playoffs for a valuable one-and-done.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
