| Jeff Risdon. 28th August, 2008 - 1:30 pm
 Last Season: 8-8, 2nd in NFC West, +5 point differential, -7 turnover ratio
Additions: LB/DE Travis LaBoy, LB Clark Haggins, LB Matt Stewart, P Dirk Johnson, DT Bryan Robinson, LB Brandon Moore
Subtractions: LB Calvin Pace, LB Darryl Blackstock, WR Bryant Johnson, S Terrence Holt, DT Chris Cooper, P Mitch Berger, DT Rodney Bailey, RB Marcel Shipp,
Rookies of Note: CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, RB Tim Hightower, WR Early Doucet, DE Calais Campbell
What I like
Offense: For the first time since Dan Dierdorf and Conrad Dobler suited up, the Cardinals have a skilled, stable offensive line. It’s not of the caliber of those great 70s lines, but OL Coach Russ Grimm molded a unit that finished in the top 10 in both run blocking and pass protection, per the good folks at FootballOutsiders.com. The right side of the line is going to be real good for a long time, with Levi Brown at tackle and Deuce Lutui at guard. Brown was excellent as a run blocker and steadily improved at pass protection. Lutui is just plain nasty, someone who does Dobler’s legacy proud. Adding C Al Johnson proved a savvy move, as his line calls and defensive recognition proved quite good. With Lyle Sendlein and Elton Brown, the Cards have functional depth up front. Special mention to backup tackle Kelly Butler, a truly impressive human being that deserves another shot.
RB Edgerrin James has settled into Arizona nicely, all things considered. He’s still a load to tackle, and he rarely gets stuffed for less than 2 yards, and he still has decent hands in the few times the Cardinals ask him to flare out. His heyday stayed in Indy, but Edge can still get the job done for another season or two. The run blocking in front of him is perfect for his downhill style, and he rarely sees safeties in the box thanks to the exceptional WR tandem.
Those two star wideouts Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are what most people think of when they think about the Cardinals. Fitzgerald is the prototype every scout dreams about: a perfect blend of size, speed, hands, technique, and attitude. He is one of the most feared weapons in the league although he hasn’t flashed the deep jets much lately. Boldin is the ideal workhorse receiver, a physical presence with great balance and vision who turns from receiver to runner in an instant. He’s currently upset about his contract (see below), but Boldin is in a perfect spot paired with the dynamic Fitzgerald, particularly with hyper-accurate Kurt Warner at QB. Despite losing #3 man Bryant Johnson, Arizona has confidence in youngsters Steve Breaston and Jereme Urban to step into greater roles. I agree with them on Breaston, and I also like young Ben Patrick at TE.
Neil Rackers let down many a fantasy owner in 2007, but he remains one of the better placekickers in the game.
Defense: It doesn’t get the attention, but the defense is the strength of this team. Even after the loss of one-year-wonder Calvin Pace, the Cards should be able to bring the heat on opposing QBs. DE Bert Berry is a very strong pass rusher when he’s able to stay on the field, which unfortunately is about half the season. Signing former Titan Travis LaBoy to provide capable insurance for Berry’s terminal gimpiness is a great move. LaBoy can play either side and has some ability to drop back in coverage and line up in a 2-pt. stance. Karlos Dansby thrived in the hybrid OLB/DE role in the new 3-4/4-3 flex defense. He has explosive speed and great strength, and he finishes his hits and tackles with authority. Dynamic Darnell Dockett has emerged as a legit playmaker up front. His quickness and high motor present major problems for opposing lines. The return of pass rush specialist Chike Okeafor, who missed all of 2007, will help ease the load on Dockett, who did a great Shaun Rogers impersonation last year--outstanding until about Week 9, then nearly invisible. Rookie DE Calais Campbell brings height and depth to the position. If he ever figures out the concept of leverage, no easy task for a 6’8” guy with long legs, his potential is sky high. With former Steeler Clark Haggans rejoining Coach Whisenhunt in the desert, the Cardinals have great depth across the front 7, especially at the DE and OLB spots.
The strength of the secondary is unquestionably safety Adrian Wilson, who is coming back from heel surgery. Before his injury Wilson was among the most feared defensive players in the league; if he played in Dallas or on the East Coast he’d have been a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate in both 2005 and 06. Wilson excels at blitzing and in run stuffing, but he’s no slouch dropping deep into coverage either. Antrell Rolle moves to the other safety spot, which plays to his strengths (hitting, physical tackling) and smoothes over his weaknesses at CB (coverage without interference, backpedaling). 1st rounder Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (hereafter DRC) will see lots of action and has great pedigree; his cousin is reigning INT champ Antonio Cromartie. Scouts I trust who evaluated him all came away impressed with his physical skills and his unwavering confidence, so he should be able to make the transition from small-college ball to the NFL. Roderick Hood is better than his reputation, though he needs safety help over the top or else he’s toast. The Cards have an abundance of depth at safety and will line up with three safeties on the field at times, as Aaron Francisco has proven to be a very solid #3.
What I dislike
Offense: The failure of Matt Leinart to step forward and seize the starting QB job is a major setback for the Cardinals. It’s not anything against Kurt Warner, who remains a decent starting option. In fact, Warner ranked among the top 10 in almost every QB statistical measure in 2007 and his 27 TD passes were one away from the team record (give yourself a star if you knew Charley Johnson holds the record!). But Arizona heavily invested in Leinart as the face of the franchise, the golden boy who could deliver them from decades of futility. Kurt Warner is 36 and turns the ball over far too much, and it’s physically painful to watch him try to avoid the rush. Leinart’s inability to show improvement and his apparent desire to be more a celebrity than a QB give the Cards a built in excuse, yet another reason why they cannot break through for a team that doesn’t need any more reasons.
Anquan Boldin is providing yet another reason. The extremely talented, prolific wideout is defiantly unhappy and wants out of the desert. While there is nothing about Boldin that indicates he’ll dog it on the field or let his unhappiness affect his play, it’s yet another dagger in team unity and positive attitude that the Cardinals organization has lacked since the mid-70s. With Bryant Johnson gone, the Cards don’t have the proven depth behind Boldin that can help cover the slack, if any. This offense desperately needs its premium talent firing on all cylinders all the time, because the rest of the offense is geared towards setting up Fitzgerald and Boldin.
Arizona continues to go against the trend towards quicker, lither running backs. Edgerrin James is still a worthy starting back who churns out between 3 and 5 yards on every carry, but he’s no threat to break anything longer than about 8 yards unless the defense is asleep. His inability to outrun anyone hurts the Cardinals ability to get the coveted 2nd and 3 or 3rd and 1 very often. They drafted rookie Tim Hightower to help ease James’ load, but the former Richmond Spider was the slowest RB in postseason workouts and is more of a bowling ball than a runner. I like his potential as a short-yardage back, but what the Cardinals really need is a shifty, nifty 3rd down back who can catch short passes, make a cutback run, and make a tackler miss in space. They have JJ Arrington, but he has done nothing but validate my scouting report on him headed into the 2005 draft (he went in the 2nd round): runs tentative, and if you hit him hard once he’s done for the day. This team sorely needs a Kevin Faulk or even an Aveion Cason.
Defense: The defense is not without its weak points. Moving Rolle from CB to safety is good in theory, but how it works out remains to be seen. It also puts a great deal of pressure on rookie DRC to perform well right away, not to mention it keeps generally inept cover men Ralph Brown and Eric Green on the field in multiple WR sets. If the pass rush isn’t consistent, this is a secondary that can be exploited.
Gerald Hayes led the team in tackles from his ILB spot, but he’s nothing more than a glorified cleanup man. Neither he, Monty Beisel, nor newcomer Brandon Moore inspire confidence at the ILB positions and pale in comparison to the ILBs in most 3-4 schemes. Having Adrian Wilson at full strength will help the up-the-gut defense, but that detracts from his coverage responsibilities that appear a more pressing need.
The team is currently sticking with veteran journeyman Dirk Johnson at punter, replacing the similar Mitch Berger. I rarely advocate a team ever drafting a punter or kicker before the final round, but the Cardinals might want to consider doing just that next April. There has been a nice infusion of recent draftee punters, and the Cards need to jump into that pool if they want to upgrade their punting and field position.
Best Case: A balanced offense efficiently drives the ball and puts points on the board; Warner keeps Leinart on the bench with strong play and a reduction in the bonehead turnovers; the pass rush mitigates the coverage issues in the secondary; Rackers leads the league in FGs again; the Boldin headache doesn’t bleed onto the field. Getting off to a strong start against a manageable schedule could net them enough wins to earn a playoff berth with 9 or perhaps 10 wins.
Worst Case: This team keeps the “Same ‘Ol Cardinals” mantra alive and well, fueled by baffling losses, untimely turnovers, major coverage gaffes, QB controversy, WR diva behavior, and a failure of the young coaching staff to make the adjustments that other teams made against them. That’s a common issue for second-year staffs, and this team isn’t much (if any) more talented on paper than they were one year ago and surprised many with an 8-win output.
Bellwether Games: The Cardinals come off their Week 7 bye with a stretch that will determine their finish: @CAR, @STL, and then back home for Monday Night Football against SF. If they can beat the Panthers, who are worse at home than on the road, that’s one impressive notch in the belt to build confidence towards a strong finish. Then there are those division games that the Cards always seem prone to pissing away. Vanquishing the teams below them in the NFC West is the best way for this team to add a couple more wins and finally break the playoff drought. But if the Cards don’t win at least two of these games, that 8 win 2007 might be tough to match.
Prediction: The Cardinals are one of those teams like the Lions and Bengals: show me, don’t tell me. I saw a lot of things I liked in 2007, particularly on defense. I also saw a lot of work still to be done, and this offseason did little to immediately improve the team. This team is certainly capable of winning the NFC West, but they have to avoid the ugly losses and locker room dissonance that a disgruntled WR and a QB controversy often breeds. I need to see it before I believe it. The Cardinals finish a disappointing 7-9, and it will be their inability to put away inferior NFC West counterparts (STL and SF) that spoils their season.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
