| Jeff Risdon. 29th August, 2008 - 2:22 pm
 Last Season: 4-12, T-3rd in AFC West, -115 point differential, --11 turnover ratio
Additions: CB Deangelo Hall, WR Javon Walker, DE Kalimba Edwards, C John Wade, CB Duane Starks, S Gibril Wilson, T Kwame Harris, DT William Joseph
Subtractions: DT Warren Sapp, DE Chris Clemons, DT Tyler Brayton, QB Josh McCown, CB Fabian Washington, T Barry Sims, C Jeremy Newberry, RB Lamont Jordan, WR Jerry Porter, KR Chris Carr, RB Dominic Rhodes, S Stuart Schweigert
*WR Drew Carter was signed but has already found his way to the IR list
Rookies of Note: RB Darren McFadden, S Tyvon Branch
What I like
Offense: With the addition of heralded rookie Darren McFadden, the Raiders have an embarrassment of riches at the running back position. McFadden has the potential to be one of the best RBs in the league very quickly with his package of instant acceleration, sharp cuts, uncanny vision, and functional size (6’2”, 215). Early indications are that the hype has merit, enough that the Raiders cut Lamont Jordan, still a useful enough guy that the Patriots gobbled him up quickly. McFadden likely gets the “lightning” rookie role, while the “thunder” goes to Michael Bush, a 235+ pound bruiser who missed his rookie campaign recovering from one of the nastiest leg injuries you’ll ever see. His rehab is complete, and everyone I’ve spoken with who has seen him raves about his burst and how difficult Bush is to tackle. Just to be safe, the Raiders held onto shifty Justin Fargas, who put up over 1000 yards in shared duty last season. Fargas runs full tilt all the time, and if the holes are there he can be lethal. He also has good hands out of the backfield and will get more work in that capacity with Jordan gone.
Defense: One word comes to mind when thinking about the Raiders secondary: loaded. CB Nnamde Asomugha is one of the few shutdown cover men in the league; in a poll of WRs, he finished second to Champ Bailey as the best coverage corner in the entire league. To help strengthen the other side, the Raiders essentially swapped Fabian Washington for Deangelo Hall, which in theory gives Oakland the best starting duo in the NFL. Hall is supremely gifted physically and is a proven playmaker from his days in Atlanta. He’s also prone to epic meltdowns and ridiculously poor judgment in trying to pick off every pass in his direction, but when he controls himself he is a Pro Bowl talent. Because teams scheme to avoid throwing anywhere near Asomugha, Hall should get many opportunities to show off his great ball skills.
Mike Huff returns to his natural safety position, where he excels at coverage against TEs and backs. Huff is stout against the run and closes on the ball quickly, and if he ever grows a pair of hands he can be a great free safety.
Owner Al Davis continued his long-running infatuation with poaching the Super Bowl champs, bringing in former Giant Gibril Wilson to man the strong safety spot. Wilson excels at blitzing between the tackles, and he is savvy and responsible in coverage. Rookie Tyvon Branch fills the #3 safety role and will be given a long look in nickel packages; he’s been one of the most consistently impressive performers all summer.
The front seven is predicated on speed. DE Derrick Burgess is one of the more accomplished sack artists in the league, and his speed and quickness off the edge wind up putting him in position to blow up run plays to his side; despite being thought of as a pass rush specialist, Burgess has made more tackles on run plays behind the line of scrimmage than any other 4-3 DE over the past two seasons. The linebackers have great speed and quick reaction time. OLB Robert Thomas continues to improve, shoring up his tackling fundamentals are finally figuring out what the offense is trying to do. On the other side, Thomas Howard has racked up over 200 tackles in his first two seasons, though the team would like him to make more plays closer to the line. MLB Kirk Morrison is one of those underappreciated jack-of-all-trades backers who always winds up on your TV screen whenever the other team runs the ball. He does nothing particularly well but he’s above average in just about every capacity.
The Raiders don’t lack for leg strength on special teams. K Sebastian Janikowski consistently booms kickoffs, and he made 6 FGs (out of 11) from over 50 yards. For a team that struggles to put the ball in the end zone, that range is a real asset. Shane Lechler led the league in net punting average, netting almost 50 yards per punt. He significantly improved at pinning the ball deep, cutting his touchbacks in half from 2006.
What I dislike
Offense: Where to start? How about the offensive line, which improved mightily from 2006 and still ranked among the worst overall units in the league. The improvement came in run blocking, which is no surprise with Tom Cable as the new OL coach and a transition to a more zone-oriented blocking scheme. Zone blocking in the NFL is similar to the 2-3 zone defense in college basketball--it helps equalize the equation when you have inferior talent, but if the other team has great individual players or superior size down low, the neutralization is mitigated. It’s pass protection where this group will be severely challenged. Starting tackles Kwame Harris and Cornell Green belong as nothing more than backups--ask 49ers fans about Harris and once they stop cursing they’ll tell you he’s dreadful at pass blocking. Robert Gallery saved his career by moving inside to guard, and like the slow-footed shooting guard, the zone scheme played to his run-blocking strengths and somewhat hid his inability to pass block anyone who tries hard. He and Cooper Carlisle are the strengths of the line at G, but that says more about the rest of the line than it does their own skill level. There is potential for improvement at center, where John Wade should take over for the inept Jake Grove (sorry Jake!). The run blocking shouldn’t be much of a problem, but this line is a pass rusher’s dream to face. It’s not a deep group either.
All that QB pressure falls onto JaMarcus Russell, the first overall pick in the 2007 draft. Russell is truly the wild card for the Raiders season; predicting how Russell performs in his first full season is a wide open debate. This much we know: Russell is very big, checking in at 6’6” and a solid 270 pounds; he’s very lithe on his feet for a big man; his arm strength is in the Jeff George “freakish” category; he displayed good accuracy at LSU and had no problem spreading the ball all over the field to varying receivers. He was the last draftee to sign last season, which cost him loads of invaluable prep and learning time, and that showed in the 4 games he played. His mobility and mass will suit him nicely in Coach Lane Kiffin’s offense, which calls for lots of rollouts and bootlegs. How quickly (if ever) Russell is able to translate his physical tools to the NFL game will go a long way towards whether these Raiders challenge for 8 wins or challenge for the 1st overall pick in 2009.
Don’t expect a lot of help from the receiving corps. Al Davis violated one of the cardinal rules and lured in Javon Walker from the rival Broncos to be the #1 wideout. Top WRs don’t get released from their teams in the supposed prime of their careers without reason, and Walker proved that almost immediately. The 30-year-old with a history of knee injuries played the retirement card before showing up 20 pounds heavy at training camp, a bad sign about his mental state and motivation. He’s also a guy who has earned his rep as someone who can be muscled around by DBs, even though he has decent size and great wheels to avoid contact. When he’s physically and mentally right, Walker is a very good receiver who thrives on 12 yard outs and hitch & go patterns. It’s a huge gamble that will either look real good or fail spectacularly.
The injury to Drew Carter, who had locked up the other starting WR spot after generally disappointing in Carolina, puts even more pressure on Walker to be consistently outstanding. Ronald Curry is Mr. Reliable and is the type of player the Raiders sorely need more of, but his numerous injuries have limited his game to fragile possession receiver. Johnnie Lee Higgins did next to nothing in his rookie year, though he’s got elite speed and has impressed in camp. He could develop into the field stretching burner that keeps the safety from creeping up too far to stop the run. Beyond Higgins the WR picture is real murky, filled with the unproven and underwhelming. At least TE Zach Miller has strong potential to build off a decent rookie season, provided they don’t have to keep him in to help the lousy tackles pass block. Every young QBs’ best friend is a reliable tight end, so expect Miller to get a lot of catches. The Russell/Miller combo could resemble the Steve McNair/Frank Wycheck symbiosis during McNair’s early years. It’s not so much that the Raiders don’t have some compelling talent in the passing game, but between the unknown commodity at QB, the very shaky pass blocking, and the legit questions about Walker, it’s just hard for me to see this unit having any sort of consistent success.
Defense: The Oakland run defense in 2006 was amazing despite the team being horrible. In 2007 that strength completely collapsed, allowing 11 different backs to rush for over 100 yards and permitting teams to milk the clock and salt away close games. So which unit will show up in 2008? The truth lies somewhere in between the extremes, and a great deal of that truth lies in two extraordinarily well-compensated tackles, Terdell Sands and Tommy Kelly. Sands got his money last summer and apparently forgot he actually had to do more than just stand in the middle of the line. Kelly got his money this summer despite not doing much at DE in 07. He is better against the run than the pass, and his knee looks fully healthy so there is hope. It also gets Jay Richardson on the field more at DE, and if he can build off a solid rookie season, that’s a good thing. The Raiders brought in Kalimba Edwards to bolster the pass rush, but the Lions were happy to let him go away, which speaks volumes. Because the linebackers are of the undersized, quick variety, it is imperative that the DL handle the blocking to allow those backers to make plays in space. They will do a better job than last year, but 2006 sure looks like an anomalous peak.
Despite the booming legs of Lechler and Janikowski, the punt and kick coverage units are awful. Compounding the issue is that the most reliable cover man, S Jarrod Cooper, is probably not going to make the team. They give up far too many easy yards, a terrible problem for a team that relies so heavily on running the ball and struggles so much to stop it. And, this being the Raiders, expect the team to assume their rank near the top in penalties and penalty yardage differential. In 2007 both the offense and defense committed more penalties than any of their peers. I understand many Raiders fans wear that like a badge of honor, but it simply doesn’t have the intimidating factor it did when Gene Upshaw and Ted Hendricks donned the silver and black; it only helps lose football games.
Best Case: The OL and DL both solidify and play at league average or better levels; the potentially dominant running game takes shape and allows the Raiders to control the clock and takes pressure off a questionable passing game; JaMarcus Russell develops quickly and the good Javon Walker shows up; the secondary meets expectations and forces turnovers. The schedule isn’t overly difficult, and if the Raiders can limit their mistakes and the run D bounces back strong, they have a realistic shot at winning 7 or perhaps even 8 games. If Russell proves worthy of the #1 overall pick quickly, this team could look a lot like the Titans in Vince Young’s rookie year, which bounced from 4 to 8 wins and set the stage for a playoff berth the following year.
Worst Case: The lines both stink again; Javon Walker is no improvement over the banished Jerry Porter as #1 WR; Russell is slow to grasp the nuances and speed of the NFL; the running game (mainly McFadden) fails to meet expectations; the penalties and poor special teams cost the team valuable field position and time of possession. For all the legit upside, this team has the potential to finish with the fewest wins in the league. That would almost certainly costs Lane Kiffin his head coaching gig.
Bellwether Games: Weeks 2 and 3, at Kansas City and at Buffalo. Strong performances against the lowly Chiefs and the presumed-to-be-improved Bills could set the stage for a bubble-up year for the Raiders and put them in good position for a 2009 playoff berth. Poor showings against a team that already announced it’s not going to be competitive and then a team that does not match up well on paper with the Raiders, and it’s going to be yet another really long, hard season in Oakland.
Prediction: It bears repeating from above: How quickly JaMarcus Russell is able to translate his physical tools to the NFL game will go a long way towards whether these Raiders challenge for 8 wins or challenge for the 1st overall pick in 2009. I’m generally bullish on Russell, and having a great running game will help ease the transition. If everything falls into place for Russell, the lines, and the penalties and stupid mistakes are reduced, the Raiders can very realistically catch Denver for 2nd in the AFC West. The schedule has several winnable games, but these Raiders will find a way to lose some of those. Oakland finishes 5-11 in a year of growth and development but expect a big leap forward in 2009 with a good draft and improved OL play.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
