| Jeff Risdon. 29th August, 2008 - 2:38 pm
 Last Season: 8-8, 2nd in NFC North, +54 point differential, +1 turnover ratio
Additions: DE Jared Allen, WR Bernard Berrian, S Madieu Williams, QB Gus Frerotte, FB Thomas Tapeh, RB/KR Maurice Hicks, S Michael Boulware, DT Ellis Wyms
Subtractions: RB Mewelde Moore, WR Troy Williamson, S Tank Williams, QB Kelly Holcomb, S Dwight Smith, DE Darrion Scott, DT Spencer Johnson, FB Tony Richardson
Rookies of Note: S Tyrell Johnson, G-C John Sullivan
What I like
Offense: The Vikings have the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year in RB Adrian Peterson, who set the league on fire with his breakout rookie season. He appears to be the second coming of Eric Dickerson, a powerful runner with exceptional vision, cutting ability, and that rare top-end gear that seemingly turns his 4.4 40 into about 4.1 when being chased. Not many young running backs have ever made the kind of splash Peterson made in 2007. The main knock on Peterson is durability (he missed 5 games in 07), which makes the presence of Chester Taylor all the more important. In his one season as a starter he netted over 1200 yards, and Taylor racked up close to 850 yards backing up and filling in for Peterson.
Some of that success must be attributed to the front line. The Vikings raised a several eyebrows a few years back when they signed G Steve Hutchinson to a lucrative free agent deal, but thus far he’s been worth every dime and all the controversy. If Hutch isn’t the best guard in the game, he’s on the short list, and his run blocking is certainly second to none. With steady Bryant McKinnie at LT and Pro Bowl C Matt Birk, the Vikings field an awesome left side of the line. Ryan Cook took well to the move from center to right tackle, and the Vikings found themselves a keeper in rookie John Sullivan, a tactically sound center with more fight than expected.
Many people will point to the passing game as a problem area, but I see potential for a real breakthrough season. Bringing in Bernard Berrian was a real savvy move, giving them a somewhat proven deep threat while robbing division rival Chicago of the only proven NFL-caliber WR on their roster. Berrian has had issues holding onto the ball and his blocking is weak, but he can reliably get behind the coverage and has far better hands and overall ability than the man he’s replacing, Troy Williamson. One of my breakout candidates for 2008 is 2nd year man Sidney Rice, a tall speedster who played significantly better as his rookie year wore on. You could almost see the lightbulb click on for Rice on things like body positioning, footwork, and looking the ball into his hands. Young QB Tarvaris Jackson seems to have found a real connection with Rice. The debate about Jackson’s progress, or lack thereof, is raging all over talk radio and message boards. He’s never going to be a high completion rate guy or someone who is going to put up a 3/1 TD/INT ratio, but consider this: he threw for a higher completion rate and better yards per attempt than Eli Manning, and he did it without a true #1 (Plaxico Burress) or a threat at TE (Jeremy Shockey). Jackson’s ability to avoid pressure and run for some first downs are a nice fallback weapon. I also applaud the move to bring in Gus Frerotte to replace Kelly Holcomb as the backup. Frerotte very quietly gets the job done, and he doesn’t threaten Jackson.
Defense: With the addition of reigning NFL sack champion Jared Allen, the Vikings clearly have the best 4-3 DL in the NFL. The Williams duo in the middle, Pat and Kevin, is simply dominant against the run, the anchors of the top rushing defense in the league. Teams averaged just 3.1 yards per carry against the Vikings, and Minnesota accomplished that largely without stacking the box with an extra safety or run blitzing their LBs. Adding Allen is a major coup, as he topped the league in sacks despite missing two games and is just entering the prime years of his career. You might be surprised to learn that the Vikings already ranked 8th in sacks, given all the bellyaching from commentators and Vikings fans about the weakness of their pass rush. With two promising young talents in Brian Robison (currently recovering from varicose vein surgery) and Ray Edwards, teams won’t be able to ignore the other side to focus on snuffing out Allen.
The LB corps received a welcome infusion of talent with a healthy Chad Greenway, who really shored up the run defense. With EJ Henderson moved into the MLB spot, the overall defensive speed and tackling improved. SAM LB Ben Leber does a good job of shedding the TE and closing on the ballcarrier. The front 4 get (and deserve) a lot of the credit for the dominant run defense, but the linebackers and SS Darren Sharper play a large part in the success of stopping the run so effectively and consistently.
The secondary around veteran Sharper is in pretty solid hands. CB Antoine Winfield is the best run support corner in the league, a huge hitter for his size who knows how to finish his tackles. Winfield is also above average in coverage, handling physical wideouts better than most CBs. Fellow starter Cedric Griffin does a good job on shorter routes and is also strong in run support. Marcus McCauley and Charles Gordon round out the top 4, and both are youngsters who have already shown some proven ability. McCauley in particular showed a lot of skill in the nickel role towards the end of last season. Rookie safety Tyrell Johnson was an outstanding blitzer and tackling machine at Arkansas State, and Sharper is known as an exceptional mentor for younger players. Because Madieu Williams is out for the start of the season, Johnson will be thrust into a more prominent role than expected, but he’s looked the part thus far.
What I dislike
Offense: I was optimistic above on the state of the passing game; here’s where the negativity gets to flow. Tarvaris Jackson has yet to take the giant leap forward in his progress that most QBs make at this stage of their careers. He still burns through his reads too quickly and doesn’t have patience in the pocket. For a team that is looking to throw the ball down the field with more frequency and precision, those are not positive attributes. Jackson also needs to improve his play action fakes--he’s too easy to read, doesn’t sell the run very well. I do like both Berrian and Rice at WR, but both are guys who are going to be more effective 20 yards down the field. So is Aundrae Allison, a speedster who will see more time in his second season. If you look at all the young mobile QBs who have become very good QBs, one of the things they all have in common is a very good, reliable pass-catching TE or big possession receiver. Guys like Jackson need that security blanket, guys who can make a catch 7 yards over the middle on the move, take the hit, and get up and do it again on the next play. McNair had Wycheck, Vick had Crumpler, Steve Young had Brent Jones, Trent Green had Tony Gonzalez. Jackson has something called Visanthe Shiancoe at TE, with Robert Ferguson as his top possession wideout. That’s not Linus’ security blanket, that’s Charlie Brown’s ghost costume. This Vikings' team appears ready to buck the trend towards shorter crossing routes and racking up long drives with intermediate passes, choosing instead to go for the big play, set up by the run. It’s actually not a bad idea, because teams that buck the trend o’ the day can have unexpectedly great success (see the Giants D last year, the Martz offense circa 1999, even the Mouse Davis Run-N-Shoot). But it can also fail spectacularly if the personnel don’t execute consistently perfect (see Buddy Ryan’s 46 D in Arizona, Steve Spurrier’s Fun-N-Gun, or Nick Saban’s Stalinistic regime). How consistently well the deep passing game can complement the running game is the difference between another playoff near-miss and a legit shot at the Super Bowl.
Defense: The Vikings sure appear to be blaming their weak pass rush for their leaky pass defense, but it’s not quite so simple. Jared Allen and the young ends on the other side will absolutely improve the pass rush, and thus the pass defense, but there is a larger problem. Winfield and Griffin are both good at certain aspects of coverage, but both starting CB's struggle at knowing when to turn loose their receiver to the safety for deep help. And that deep help from the safeties often came late, if at all. The linebackers often looked like they were unsure of what exactly they were supposed to be doing in coverage--are we in zone, who has the FB, how deep do I drop with the slot guy? Continuity will help much of that, as will Madieu Williams once he’s healthy (he’s out until at least October), as he is a much better coverage safety than Dwight Smith. How much it improves remains to be seen.
The Vikings have a real nice starting 11, but if the injury bug strikes anywhere up front they are in trouble. Spencer Johnson was the top reserve DT, but he departed for Buffalo. That leaves journeyman Ellis Wyms and rookie Letroy Guion as the backups for the Williams boys. The linebacker situation is even more tenuous; rookies Erin Henderson and J Leman are one snap away from being starters, along with Rufus Alexander, who missed his rookie campaign with injury. That’s a very real depth problem for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. It also means the special teams coverage units will not have a lot of experience.
Best Case: Adrian Peterson plays 16 games, rushes for 1800+ yards, and the Vikings literally run away with the NFC North. A continuation of the awesome run defense, fewer blown coverages, and more success in the downfield passing game and return game would help.
Worst Case: Tarvaris Jackson crashes under the weight of heightened expectations; Peterson once again can’t play a full season; and Taylor can’t pick up his slack; the pass defense doesn’t step up, and the run defense unexpectedly slides a little; the right side of the OL becomes a more exploitable weakness. The schedule features some pretty good run defenses, and if Peterson has more games like his final 4 games, where he rushed for just 144 yards on 36 carries in his return from his bum knee, those run defenses are going to look even tougher.
Bellwether Games: Right out of the box the Vikings can prove their mettle. The opener is Monday Night Football in Green Bay, the team they are chasing in the NFC North. That is followed by home games against the Colts and Panthers, two teams that figure prominently in playoff discussions. Minnesota can set the tone positively or negatively in those three games. If they can start strong they can likely coast into the playoffs, as their final 5 games all look like strong win probabilities. But they could also start 0-3, putting undue pressure on a shaky QB, an antsy owner, and a coach whose pants might need flame retardant.
Prediction: It’s refreshing to see a team like the Vikings, one that is built around running the ball and stopping the other team from doing the same. They have the personnel to make it work, and the passing game is going to be better than most people expect. So long as the main cogs stay healthy and a rash of turnovers doesn’t cost the Vikings games, this is a playoff team. Minnesota goes 10-6 and makes the playoffs, thanks in part to a 5-1 finish in the NFC North.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
