| Jeff Risdon. 4th September, 2008 - 1:38 pm
 Last Season: 10-6, 3rd in AFC South, lost in Wild Card round
Additions: G Jake Scott, DE Javon Kearse, TE Alge Crumpler, WR Justin McCareins, DE Dave Ball
Subtractions: G Jacob Bell, DE Antwan Odom, DE Travis LaBoy, CB Pacman Jones, RB Chris Brown, TE Ben Hartsock, WR Eric Moulds, DT Randy Starks, WR Roydell Williams, G Benji Olson, TE Ben Troupe
Rookies of Note: RB Chris Johnson, DL Jason Jones
What I like
Offense: The offensive line is far and away the strength of the unit. Center Kevin Mawae is on the downside, but he is a fierce competitor and great locker room leader. Mawae has figured out how to cover for his lost quickness in pass protection. The starting tackles are one of the best duos in the league. LT Michael Roos gets great leverage for such a tall tackle, and he earned his lucrative extension. RT David “Big Country” Stewart is a nasty drive blocker who had made great strides in handling quicker pass rushers. They lost G Jacob Bell, but poached his replacement Jake Scott from the rival Colts. Scott is a little more agile and a better pass blocker, though the team will miss Bell’s aggressiveness. It’s an acquired skill to block for a QB who likes to roll out or tuck and run, and this line does a great job at that skill. So long as the starters can remain healthy, the Titans have a very solid OL adept in all phases of the job. But they are painfully thin up front, particularly on the interior.
The Titans have taken the Thunder and Lightning backfield to the extreme. Starting RB Lendale White is built like a lineman and often gets chased down by them, but it often takes quite a few defenders to bring him down. He runs like a bull between the tackles and comes off his first 1000 yard season. Feeling the need for speed, Tennessee grabbed East Carolina RB Chris Johnson with their 1st round pick. Johnson was the fastest man in the draft class, and if you happened to catch the Hawaii Bowl last winter you saw his versatility and amazing burst. Johnson is also an accomplished receiver; ECU toyed with moving him to wideout at times. The stark contrast between the two should exaggerate the differences in style even more. They have 2007 2nd rounder Chris Henry (not the criminal WR in Cincy) to provide depth. In fact, the Titans have spent a top 50 overall pick in each of the last 3 drafts on running backs.
QB Vince Young remains an intriguing weapon. His size and acceleration make him a dangerous runner and give him the ability to avoid sacks and turn QB pressure into pressure on the defense. Young improved his completion percentage in 2007 by working on throwing with more touch on shorter routes. He has his faults (more on that later), but he’s one of those rare talents that seems to find a way to win, and that’s the most important statistic for a QB.
Defense: The obvious starting point is the duo of Albert Haynesworth and Kyle VandenBosch up front, but the Titans feature a trio of linebackers that do an excellent all-around job. Keith Bulluck is a speeding bullet, flying all over the field making plays. His tackle numbes went way down last year, but that’s because Bulluck emerged as the best pass defender on the team. David Thornton picked up the tackle slack on the other side. He’s very undersized, weighing just 225 and that seems high come November, but he flies to the ball and has excellent tackling technique. Middle man Ryan Fowler is a dependable backer who doesn’t get caught out of position and has a high football IQ. Steven Tulloch sees a lot of action as the utility backup, and he’s got the ability to start.
Albert Haynesworth was simply wonderful in 2007, a legit Defensive Player of the Year candidate who often dominated for long stretches. He usurped Tommie Harris as the most disruptive interior DL in the league, and the defense went from real good to barely average when he missed time. I don’t expect as great a 2008, but he should still perform at a Pro Bowl level and keep the LBs free of blockers. Kyle VandenBosch thrived next to him, and when the two ran stunts and twists they were almost completely unstoppable. VandenBosch is the consummate pro and a relentless pass rusher with a variety of moves in the bag. It’s the best 1-2 DT/DE combo in the league, at least it was in 2007 with the potential to repeat.
The secondary was a pleasant surprise that should only be better this year. CB Cortland Finnegan emerged as a fine all-around player with exceptional closing speed. He and fellow CB Nick Harper both provide excellent run support on the outside, though it should be pointed out teams ran outside on the Titans more than normal because of Haynesworth in the middle. Michael Griffin had a good rookie season, which looks better considering they flopped him from FS to CB and back again. He’s an intense competitor who drives those around him to play hard all the time. Chris Hope is solid at the strong safety spot, though he is coming back from a neck injury.
Kicker Rod Bironas just might be the best in the business. Bironas is a FG machine who routinely kicks off with high, deep kicks that keep the field position firmly in Tennessee’s favor. Craig Hentrich is an outstanding holder and a decent enough punter, and the coverage units support him very well most of the time.
What I dislike
Offense: The Titans have the worst collection of wideouts in the NFL, and it’s not really a close competition. The starters will be Justin Gage and Justin McCareins, both of whom are #3 WRs at best and probably #4 wideouts on most other teams. They both have good height and will catch the ball if it’s thrown near them, but offer little more than that. The slot gig falls to Brandon Jones, who will probably injure himself somehow by the time you finish reading this sentence. Beyond that are two 2007 rookies with 5 career catches, Paul Williams and Chris Davis. The Titans somewhat mitigate the need for lots of talent and depth at WR by running a lot of 2 TE and 2-back sets, but at some point Vince Young just might have to throw a pass to someone more than 10 yards away from him. Chances are they won’t be open for very long.
Young’s development, or rather lack thereof, is a point of increasing scrutiny. All the knocks that applied when he came out of Texas--can’t make multiple reads, doesn’t see safeties, too quick to give up on plays, often robotic mechanics--are all still readily apparent. His completion percentage went way up, but the degree of difficulty of his throws went way down. When Young stayed in the pocket he often looked uncomfortable and frustrated that he couldn’t use his threat to run to get LB's out of the passing lanes. His 9/17 TD/INT ratio is horrible, and Young has the worst QB rating inside the red zone over the last two seasons. Bringing back Mike Heimerdinger at offensive coordinator might help some, but departed Norm Chow is renowned as a QB guru, having developed 3 Heisman Trophy winning QB's at the college level. Expect some improvement from Young, but other than his ability to run the ball and to pull rabbits out of hats in crunch time, he’s one of the worst QB's in the league saddled by throwing to the worst receiving corps in the league.
Defense: Losing both left defensive ends is a problem. Antwan Odom’s ability to get to the QB will be sorely missed, while Travis LaBoy was a solid all-around player. Bringing back Javon Kearse is not going to solve the problem. Kearse is years removed from his Titans glory days and should be enjoying retirement. Young Jacob Ford and feel-good story Dave Ball (he spent last season teaching, not playing) are the depth, as rookie 2nd rounder Jason Jones moved inside and is the 3rd tackle, behind Haynesworth and unimpressive Tony Brown. Jones is essentially the entire depth inside, as the only other DT on the roster is never-used 3rd year man Kevin Vickerson. Titans fans were often hard on LaBoy, who never developed into the strong starter expected of him, but they will recall him quite fondly after seeing Kearse and Co. are unable to fill his shoes.
Behind the two starting CBs, the Titans have some issues as well. Nickel man Reynaldo Hill has played his way down from starting and might get passed over by Eric King. That would be more an indictment of Hill’s lousiness than King earning more snaps. Chris Carr looks like the #5 but he is almost exclusively a return man, though often a very good one. When the pass rush went away, which was when Haynesworth was away, the secondary was fairly easy to exploit. Losing the pass rush ability of Odom and LaBoy means the two stars up front have to be consistently fantastic. They have that capability but it’s asking a lot of them.
Best Case: It really can’t get a lot better than how 2007 turned out--dominance from Haynesworth and VandenBosch and solid CB and LB play spearheaded a strong defense that was able to overcome an inconsistent rushing attack and the oft-inadequate passing offense. The team overachieved and made the playoffs, and with any improvement in the passing game (read: Vince Young) they have that potential once again.
Worst Case: Haynesworth goes back to his old inconsistent self and the entire defense suffers; nobody besides VandenBosch records more than 3.5 sacks; Young fails to improve and gets little help from his wideouts; the running game bogs down as a result of teams not respecting the passing game; the run of overachieving luck wears out. On paper this is the weakest team in the tough AFC South by a wider margin than most might think. Without a repeat of Haynesworth’s 2007 or significant forward strides by Vince Young, this team might struggle to win more than 4 games.
Bellwether Games: The first three games will define the Titans season. Tennessee opens at home against the rival Jaguars, then heads to Cincinnati before returning home to face the Texans. If they want to have any shot at avoiding last in the AFC South, they absolutely have to win both home games. The Bengals are a mess, but they also have a style and personnel that can exploit the Titans’ weaknesses.
Prediction: Two years in a row I’ve picked Tennessee to finish 6-10, and two years in a row my forecast of a poor season has been dashed by a combination of fluky wins and better-than-expected defense. But this year’s edition is the weakest Titans team of the lot, and their divisional rivals are all tough. Facing the AFC North won’t help, as all those teams are equipped to take advantage of what ails the Titans. The overachievement ends now. For the 3rd year in a row, I’m picking the Titans to finish 6-10.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
