| Christopher Reina. 17th September, 2008 - 3:05 pm
 The New Orleans Saints are 1-1 after losing a winnable game in Washington on Sunday. There are a number of areas that stand out as problematic yet solvable before they enter an eight-game stretch against just one 2007 playoff team where they must go at least 5-3.
1. Too many scoring opportunities
Excluding the end of the game when the Redskins ran out the clock, New Orleans gave up points on six out of their 10 defensive series. On two of the four, kicker Shaun Suisham missed field goal attempts of 49 and 30 yards.
The other two came on excellent three and outs at the end of the third quarter and beginning of the fourth.
For a Washington team that began every drive in their own territory, the Saints allowed far too many scoring opportunities, but it was ironically the 67-yard touchdown on Tracy Porter by Santana Moss that finally allowed the Redskins to take the lead.
The offense did the defense no favors as they went three and out on the previous possession as Pierre Thomas was unable to convert on 3rd and one.
That gave the defense little time to recover from an eight play, 4:37 drive that began with a 12-yard sack by Will Smith. Jason Campbell completed five consecutive passes for 23 (a particularly bad one where Chris Cooley beat Jonathan Vilma), 17, six, 25, and 11 yards before Clinton Portis ran for four yards and the eight-yard touchdown.
In Week 1, the Buccaneers were 4-for-13, but this is far more reminiscent of 2007 when the Saints were routinely allowing obviously viable scoring opportunities.
Week 16, Eagles: Six of 10 (throwing out a late game drive where they were running out the clock.
Week 13, Buccaneers: Five of 10 (plus a missed field goal)
Week 10, Rams: Seven of Nine (excluding running the clock out at the end of the first half)
These three games were unsurprisingly losses, and there isn't a team in the NFL, no matter how well or poorly they run the ball, that can compete when their opponents have that many chances to score.
The Saints' defense was unsuccessful on third down 86 out of 206 times last season, which was 22nd in the NFL. This year they are third in the NFL on third down as they have been successful 22 out of 27 times. But the problem is clearly on first and second down because they have yielded 43 first downs with only the Browns, Rams, and Chargers faring worse.
They were tied for a respectable tenth with 288 in 2007, but were fourth in 2006 with 262 and 6th in third down percentage allowed.
2. Only passing can lead to run
With Marques Colston out, a physical Redskins' defense was able to cheat up and prevent the Saints from establishing a run game. Last minute replacement at safety Chris Horton intercepted two passes and recovered a fumble.
They needed an effective game from Jeremy Shockey, but after the fumble and interception, Drew Brees threw his way just one more time for a 14 yard gain early in the second quarter.
Unless Brees can connect with Shockey on a regular basis to take away opposing safeties and linebackers, the 10th worst run average of 3.4 per carry will not improve and might even drop from there.
Deuce McAllister's two carries for 10 yards is a promising start to his painful comeback from multiple surgeries, but it will still be several weeks before he can physically be a workhorse.
3. A lot of points in Denver
The over/under for Sunday's game against Denver is 51.5, easily the highest other than the Packers/Cowboys (also 51.5).
The over is a safe bet. Even though the Broncos employ two of the best corner tandems in the game with Champ Bailey and Dre Bly, as a team they have been brutal against the pass in their first two games. They have given up 9.44 yards per pass, which is 28th in the NFL. They have given up nine passing plays of 20 yards or more and three for 40 or more, which puts them in the very bad company of the Lions and Dolphins.
Defensively, we can certainly expect the Saints to struggle against an explosive Broncos' offense that is just beginning to realize what they are capable of doing. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal are two wide receivers that are decidedly more difficult to defend than Santana Moss, and the rush defense that struggled with Portis will also struggle with Denver's running back by committee that averages 4.9 yards per carry (7th) behind a still effective run block scheme.
Christopher Reina is the executive editor of RealGM and may be reached at chris.reina@realgm.com |
