| Jeff Risdon. 20th August, 2009 - 10:36 am
 2008 record: 9-7, Third in AFC East
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: -1, Sack Differential: +11, Point Differential: +49
Coming In: LB Bart Scott, S Jim Leonhard, CB Lito Sheppard, DE Marques Douglas, DT Howard Green, LB/ST Larry Izzo, CB Donald Strickland
Going Out: QB Brett Favre, TE Chris Baker, DE Kenyon Coleman, S Abram Elam, WR Laveraneus Coles, LB Eric Barton, QB Brett Ratliff, CB Ty Law
Key Rookies: QB Mark Sanchez, RB Shonn Greene
Offense:
QB: The Brett Favre saga ended bitterly, as the old man proved unable to physically hold up for a full season as the team crashed and burned in December. This year the Jets turn to a polar opposite, greenhorn first round pick Mark Sanchez. With all of 16 career starts at USC under his belt, Sanchez lacks experience but little else. Tall, handsome, confident, highly accurate, and blessed with the poised mentality to handle the fickle New York media, Sanchez is the new face of the franchise. Just how ready he is for that task is an open question. Most incoming rookie quarterbacks have at least double his college experience, although Sanchez does have the benefit of playing for a former NFL coach in a pro-friendly system, practicing every day against a defense laden with future NFL starters at every spot. The biggest knocks on Sanchez are his arm strength (it's good, not awesome) and the pathetic state of Pac-10 defenses that he lit up, just as every other quarterback in the country did. He has little experience rallying a team from behind, or really even playing in close games.
Assuming Sanchez wins the starting job right away, once again Kellen Clemens is relegated to the backup role and wondering "Why me?" Clemens has a strong arm but struggled with pocket awareness and route progressions when handed the reins in 2007. Because Sanchez has not picked up the offense as quickly as hoped, Clemens could conceivably start a few games, but it's nothing more than as a placeholder. He should read the consecutive seasons of the team importing more prominent names ahead of him as the end of his Jets career ... and I love that sort of motivation for a backup quarterback, should he get a chance to see the field. Erik Ainge has career backup written all over him, which makes him a nice fit long-term behind Sanchez.
RB: Last season Thomas Jones led the AFC in rushing and Leon Washington proved a very nice change-of-speed back. They mesh well together, but all is not as rosy as it might seem. Jones has a long, inglorious history of having one very good season per location, then slumping and getting run out of town. There's a reason why a guy with his obvious skills and phenomenal physique has been on four teams before he's 28. Behind this line and with his one-cut style and vision, he's still a safe bet for four yards per carry and around 850 yards, but expect touchdown numbers a lot closer to 2007 (1) than 2008 (13). Jones has solid receiving and pass protect skills, but Bears and Cards fans can tell you that effort ebbs and wanes.
Washington is a very good third down back with instant acceleration and great shiftiness. He thrives in open space and might be the quickest guy in the AFC East, though he's not going to break many tackles and has little value between the hash marks. His receiving skills are just as valuable in this offense as his running; one Jets insider I trust insists Washington will lead the team in receptions. Washington is also somewhat prickly and has been angling for a new contract since the millisecond the ink went dry on his last one. Delusions of grandeur seldom end well for running backs, though he has a point when you factor in his exceptional skills as a return man. He is comparable to Reggie Bush in many ways, Jets fans, so be careful how readily you throw the "bust" bombs at Bush.
As insurance against the worst-case scenario with both Jones and Washington, the Jets sagely drafted Shonn Greene from Iowa. Compactly built but with good shiftiness, Greene exploded from out of nowhere last year and offers great promise, albeit with some flags. He should be a fine fit as the power runner and short-yardage back and could handle a bigger role if Jones goes into the tank. Reserve wide receiver Brad Smith is a former college quarterback ideally suited to run gadget plays and Wildcat packages and has some skills to offer at running back in a pinch. Ageless Tony Richardson is the starting fullback and he's still good enough to merit that status, though he's no longer the receiving threat he was 12 years ago. If Jehuu Caulcrick can stay healthy, he's got some bruising potential as a hybrid fullback/running back.
WR/TE: There is potential here, but more questions than proven answers. Jerricho Cotchery is the #1 wide receiver with a bullet, though he's more of a possession-type complementary wideout. Cotchery has outstanding feet in his routes and catches everything near him, but he proved last season he just cannot get separation down the field. His blocking and intangibles are major plusses.
Behind Cotchery the Jets have scant experience, but the cupboard is not bare. Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney are both young talents with good upside, little of which has been scratched so far. Clowney was the star of the 2008 preseason before a broken leg basically wiped out his rookie season. The former Hokie runs great routes and changes speeds very adeptly to get separation. In college he proved he could hang onto the ball in heavy traffic and take a hit, and you don't play wideout at Virginia Tech if you can't block. Stuckey is a little bigger and flashed some nice wheels last year, pulling down 32 passes while getting comfortable in Brian Schottenheimer's offense. He is a trendy "about to blossom" pick and I have no quarrel with that assessment. Brad Smith has never really made the transition to wideout, but he's dangerous in the slot on bubble screens and on reverses. Wallace Wright belongs as a #4. There have been hints and allegations that the Jets are in the market for a big-name wideout, some of which I can verify is factual. It would behoove them to act upon one if they want to give Sanchez more potent weaponry and align the depth chart properly, giving the youngsters time to develop.
Last year's first round pick, tight end Dustin Keller will certainly help the young receiving corps. Physically freakish with great speed and not as bad a blocker as he's often tagged, Keller is a legit downfield threat who can make the tough catch. His speed and size make him a real matchup problem. I am a firm believer that every young quarterback needs a good tight end he trusts, and Keller can be all that and more for Sanchez. Keller is the only real tight end on the team right now, which makes the departure of Chris Baker (to the Patriots of all places) seem awful risky. Former defensive tackle Kareem Brown is an extra tackle, nothing more.
OL: The Jets have invested heavily on this line, and in 2008 it was worth every penny. Bringing in left guard Alan Faneca and right tackle Damien Woody transformed a mediocre line into a very strong one. Faneca slipped a little in pass protection but remains a worthy Pro Bowler for his outstanding hole opening and tenacity. His presence made the two guys next to him better. Left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson is a liability in run blocking and struggles with power rushers on the edge, but he handles speed on the edge as well as anyone. D'Brick is also very good at getting out in front of screens and leading the downfield charge. Center Nick Mangold is a bedrock in the middle, an emerging star if you could ever be one at the center position. He has no holes in his game other than the occasional low shotgun snap. Mangold is entering his prime and should help stabilize young Sanchez behind him.
Woody fared fine at right tackle, especially considering he's naturally a center. He is the antithesis of his left-side counterpart: heavy-legged, powerful, physical, chippy. He had major issues handling speed off the edge and did not fare near as well against 3-4 fronts, indicative that he doesn't locate targets in space very well. Woody's run blocking is a major asset. Brandon Moore is kind of an afterthought even though he's proven a capable all-around right guard. The Jets toyed with replacing him but wisely realized they have better places to throw money. Some of that money should have gone to address the front line depth, an uninspiring mix of underwhelming, largely unproven talent. Wayne Hunter is the best of the group. The Jets did draft Matt Slauson to bring along at guard. That move drew snickers from many, snickers that have quieted as Slauson has impressed throughout camp.
Defense:
New head coach Rex Ryan got the job because of his fine work as the creator of the effectively exotic defense in Baltimore. It will remain a base 3-4, but expect to see lots more twists and unconventional packages, and he has enough similar personnel to make this defense just as effective as the one he built a couple hours down I-95.
DL: Nose tackle Kris Jenkins was everything the Jets wanted and more in 2008 after coming over from Carolina, where he had worn out his welcome. Perfectly built (6'4", 350+) to handle the 0-technique but agile enough to be productive playing in the "A" gap, Jenkins fixed a lot of what ailed the Jets previously porous interior run defense. Stamina is a major concern, and he's not the penetrator (except against the Bills) that Coach Ryan had in Haloti Ngata in Baltimore, but few guys stonewall the middle of the field better than Jenkins. When he fell off late in the year the entire defense went with him, and as Panthers fans can tell you, that is not anything new for Jenkins, either physically or mentally. Beware elevated expectations, Jets fans.
The ends will be Shaun Ellis and newcomer Marques Douglas, who came with Ryan from Baltimore. Ellis played off Jenkins very well, rediscovering his pass rush skills and enjoying the fruits of not facing guard help on every snap. Still solid against the run and smart enough to quickly identify the play, the 32-year old Ellis will be fine in the more aggressive defensive scheme. Douglas knows that scheme well, though he's not as dynamic. Ironically his role with the Jets will be more like his 49ers days, where he was asked to get more penetration and even drop into coverage at times, that his part-time duty in Baltimore last year. With Douglas also being 32, the depth is expected to see significant action. Mike DeVito is a beefy end who has consistently improved and could blossom under Ryan's tutelage. He will take Ellis' place in the opener while Ellis serves his suspension for getting busted with pot. Sione Pouha offers little but immovable mass in the middle, though he does that pretty well. Howard Green knows what to do in his limited role and should help push youngster Ropati Pitoitua, a tall project with some upside.
LB: Coach Ryan needs dynamic linebackers to make his complex defense work, and he's got them here. Calvin Pace, Bryan Thomas, Bart Scott, and David Harris are a tremendous group of backers with speed, versatility, and a very high collective football IQ. Pace came over from Arizona and some questioned just how effective he would be, but he quickly proved well worth the money. Or rather, Pace is worth it in terms of his ability to rush the passer. With a bevy of pass rush moves, using all sorts of combos of hands, feet, and shoulders to befuddle the opposing tackle, Pace is a dangerous weapon. He closes quickly and has mastered running at full speed with his hands up, a rare skill. But Pace struggled when asked to drop in coverage, and he was often too complacent when being blocked in run defense. He will miss the first four games of the season serving a league-mandated suspension.
Bryan Thomas will start as the other outside backer. He is a bulky run stuffer who quickly diagnoses plays and streaks to the ball. Thomas has some pass rush acumen, but his value with the Jets is setting the edge, sniffing out screens, and physically jamming tight ends off the line. Vernon Gholston will be given every chance to assume more responsibility as a pass rush specialist, after being a lost cause as a rookie. It's premature to write him off, but Gholston has to take one giant step after another to win over teammates, coaches, and fans. He certainly has the physical potential, and he was more than just a workout wonder during his Ohio State career. Gholston appears miscast as a linebacker, because what made him special was his quickness off the edge to beat the tackle off the snap. When he's lined up in a two-point stance and back off the line even a little, that negates his strengths. Kudos to both Ron Jaworski and Gil Brandt for reaching the same conclusion, lest you think I'm picking on the Jets.
The inside backers just might be the best duo of any 3-4 fronted team. David Harris is all business, a physical hitter with sound fundamentals and natural instincts. His tackle total plummeted last season, though some of that had to do with his heavier usage in coverage, where he was solid. He gets the Bart Scott role from Ryan's Baltimore defense, which means more downhill attacking and less reacting to peripheral action. Of course, that very same Bart Scott is now starting next to him in the Ray Lewis role from the Ravens. Scott is a versatile all-around backer who has done a little of everything -- run stuffing, playing rush outside linebacker, even covering the slot -- and done them well. Even though he is new to the Jets, the coaches will lean heavily on his familiarity with the scheme and his leadership and attitude. This group of starters has major potential to make big plays, force turnovers, and keep offenses off-kilter.
The depth at LB is very shaky and untested. After Gholston, the most experienced backup linebacker is, uh, well ... Jason Trusnik? No offense to anyone from Macedonia, Ohio (I lived off 82 in Aurora a few minutes away for a time) but your favorite son is no Pace or Harris, not even close. Marques Murrell has some upside aside from being Adrian's little brother and will get looks all over the formation, but he barely played as a rookie. One to watch: undrafted rookie Jamal Westerman from Rutgers (where he played defensive end), who plays with serious attitude and has been flying all over the practice field making plays. Larry Izzo has made a nice living being an emergency linebacker and special teams ace, a role he'll likely fill well in New York.
DB: The Jets have half of an exceptional secondary. Corner Darelle Revis is a legit star in the making, a true shutdown corner with remarkable consistency. He also has a flair for the dramatic, as he made interceptions that sealed two victories last year. Revis is also fine against the run and uses sound tackling technique. He is a coach's dream and should challenge for All-Pro honors for the next several seasons. Safety Kerry Rhodes is an active playmaker, versatile and dependable. He should thrive in the Ed Reed role in this defense, though he's not as rangy or fast. Instinctive and tough, Rhodes must be accounted for at all times.
The rest of the secondary is full of solid players, though some with bigger names than games. Lito Sheppard comes from the Eagles with much fanfare, but the plain truth is he gives up far too many plays for the relative few he makes. He still has quickness and no shortage of confidence, and Sheppard will get his hands on some balls. Run support is not his strong suit, though with Revis and second-year man Dwight Lowery out there with him, he shouldn't have to do much there. Lowery is exactly what my pre-draft report on him thought he'd be: slowish, undersized, tentative with his reactions, good tackler, good ball skills, capable outside nickel corner against shorter, slower wideouts. The rookie started strong and Jets fans fell in love with Peanut, but teams figured out how to attack and exploit him pretty quickly. With Sheppard in the slot, Lowery can play to his strengths and should improve with more experience. Donald Strickland has had a solid camp and has shown more physicality to his game than 49ers fans ever saw. He could see the field a lot, probably at Sheppard's expense if the veteran doesn't get his act together quickly. Jim Leonhard is another former Raven who will start with Rhodes at safety, replacing hit-and-miss (literally) Abram Elam. Leonhard thrived under Ryan in Baltimore after struggling to be more than a decent special teamer in Buffalo. He’s not the hitter or run stuffer that Elam was, but he'll be more reliable and better in coverage. Still, he lacks athletic measurables and had a lot of his faults covered up by playing next to Ed Reed and behind a terrific pass rush. Former Packers draft bust Ahmad Carroll and diminutive Drew Coleman are the depth at corner, with hybrid safety/corner James Ihedigbo and competent Eric Smith the reserves at safety.
Special Teams: Lots of changes here even though the coverage and return units are both above-average. Leon Washington will cede punt return duties as he assumes a larger role in the offense, but the Jets will wisely keep the Pro Bowl return dynamo back on kicks. Jim Leonhard will run back punts after Dwight Lowery fumbled twice in the preseason opener, effectively ending the camp battle.
Injured kicker Mike Nugent is history, and the team is sticking with his replacement, Jay Feely. He lacks Nugent's leg strength on field goals, though once Nugent was healthy enough to come back the team stuck with Feely's reliability and more consistent kickoffs. If training camp and preseason are any indication, the Jets could have a serious issue at punter. Neither Reggie Hodges nor Ken Parrish has done anything to seize the job, and the coaches are watching the waiver wire for an upgrade.
3 Keys To The Season:
1. Just how quickly Sanchez adjusts to the NFL game and handles the role of franchise messiah in a glaring media spotlight, plus how well his teammates react to him.
2. Can the defense elevate the pressure and force turnovers even better than last year, and sustain the intensity for a full season?
3. Coach Ryan isn't shy about ruffling feathers, which works fine when the swimming is smooth but can grow tiresome quickly in choppy waters. How well he handles the added responsibilities and the close scrutiny, not to mention an offensive game plan, are big questions.
Forecast: Normally when a team is going to start a rookie quarterback under a rookie head coach, you anticipate a long season of tough losses and learning experiences. Last year changed that reality, and the trick is to ascertain whether 2008 was an anomaly or the new black. With the solid offensive line and the exciting potential of this very good defense, it's real tempting to look past the obvious issues. But the lack of o-line depth, lack of a playmaking wide receiver, lack of depth behind lots of age in the defensive front, tenuous running back situation, and the bombastic inexperience of Coach Ryan is too hard to ignore. I think Sanchez will be a great one, but not right away. The tougher schedule doesn't help matters. The Jets will tease with their potential, but the possibility they start 1-4 is very real, and that's a deep hole. New York finishes 6-10 but shouldn't be down for long.
-- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com. |
