| Jeff Risdon. 6th September, 2009 - 12:34 pm
 2008 record: 7-9, Second in NFC West
Key Stats:Turnover Ratio: -17, Sack Differential: -25, Point Differential: -42
Coming In: CB Dre Bly, FB Moran Norris, WR Brandon Jones, DE Demetric Evans, LB Marques Harris
Going Out: DE Ronald Fields, QB JT O’Sullivan, WR Bryant Johnson, OLB Tully Banta-Cain, T Jonas Jennings, S Keith Lewis, TE Billy Bajema
Key Rookies: WR Michael Crabtre (if he ever signs), RB Glen Coffee
In lieu of the typical format, the 49ers get the special treatment. Rather than a positional breakdown, here are five reasons for optimism and five reasons to worry in 2009.
The glass is half full of a fine Napa Valley vintage:
1. The 49ers have the best young linebacker in the game in Patrick Willis. With the move to a more full-time 3-4 scheme, Willis could be even better than his first two seasons, where he amassed over 300 tackles. He should have more freedom to attack the holes instead of lurking and pouncing further downfield. Willis certainly has the physical tools to do it. He benefited from the veteran presence of Takeo Spikes next to him, and the two of them together are a great interior linebacker duo that can control the run. Both have enough range to do that outside the tackles too. Having Hall of Fame linebacker Mike Singletary as the Head Coach won't hurt either.
2. There are some strong pieces in place on the offensive line. Left tackle Joe Staley is an up-and-coming talent who quickly acclimated from the right side. He is among the most athletic tackles in the game and is perhaps the best run-blocking left tackle around -- not bad for a converted tight end whose primary pre-draft flag was "is he tough enough?" Staley is entering his prime years and should continue to improve. Center Eric Heitmann is big for the position but amazingly consistent. He handles larger 0-technique noses very well, and it wasn't his line calls at fault for the quarterbacks being sacked 55 times. Chilo Rachal is a mauler at right guard, and his offseason workouts clearly improved his flexibility and agility. His dominance of the Rams and Jets D-lines late in his rookie campaign are valid reason for optimism that Rachal can develop into a very good guard. If Left guard David Baas can stay consistently healthy he is an above-average run blocker who can fire out to the second level and create cutback lanes for the runner. It's a group well-suited for a run-based attack, which appears to be the recipe under the new coaching staff.
3. The defensive line also has some nice pieces in place. Right end Justin Smith continues to be a very good all-around end, and as a fulltime 3-4 end he'll be able to focus more on rushing the passer. Last season the Niners dropped him into coverage quite a bit to compensate for awful outside linebacker play, and still Smith netted 7.5 sacks and nearly 25 quarterback pressures. He's on the smaller side for 3-4 ends, but anchoring against the run has never been a problem for the cagey veteran. Nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin finally started to look comfortable late in his first year in San Francisco, and he is better-suited to play the attacking nose spot rather than the static hold-the-line style of Mike Nolan's scheme. 2008 first rounder Kentwan Balmer had a strong preseason that has led the coaches to give him more responsibility. A little birdie tells me he should be among the most improved second-year players in the league. Veteran free agent signee Demetric Evans adds some much-needed depth, and rookie defensive tackle Ricky-Jean Francois has impressed the coaches with his work ethic and attitude to go with his freakish quickness inside. Don't laugh, LSU fans!
4. The special teams are among the best in the game. Punter Andy Lee finally got a break from being the most-used punter in NFL history over the prior three seasons, but the loss of opportunities (down from averaging 98 per year to just 66 last year) didn't impact his effectiveness. Joe Nedney is an underrated kicker who has excelled at the tricky conditions. Return man Allen Rossum had a stellar 2008, ranking among the league leaders in net yards and showing he's still got great speed well into his 30s. The coverage units are also quite good, and they will remain largely unchanged in 2009. When the regular units struggle, getting all those hidden yards and controlling field position is a huge advantage, and the Niners do that as well as anyone. Special teams coach Al Everest is one of the most respected positional coaches in the league, and his charges clearly take pride in playing for him.
5. Frank Gore and Michael Robinson give the Niners great potential at running back. Gore hasn't quite matched the hype following his breakout 2006, but he is still an upper-echelon running back with a great blend of speed and power. He's an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Gore should benefit from the stable offensive line and the presence of Robinson, who appears finally comfortable at running back after being a collegiate quarterback. Robinson is a shifty, more-quick-than-fast giant scatback, if that makes any sense. He is also a very good receiver and seems to be a natural if Coordinator Jimmy Raye decides to sprinkle in some Wildcat package plays. Rookie Glen Coffee had an excellent preseason and could actually usurp Robinson's role as primary backup. He's more physical and has a similar style to Gore, which helps the linemen. More than one pundit has gushed about Coffee being a draft-day steal, and they'll get no argument from me. Raye has promised a transformation into a more run-based, hard-nosed offense, and the 49ers have a game stable of runners and starting linemen to pull it off.
The glass is half empty, full of dregs and strawberry/kiwi Mad Dog:
1. It's often said that any team with a quarterback controversy has no quarterback, and that is quite apt for San Francisco. The fact that Shaun Hill has not forcibly wrested the job from Alex Smith is a strong indication that the quarterback issues are deeper than they appear. Hill is clearly the superior player and has a lot of positive attributes, but that the coaches don't apparently see that, and that the teammates don't vocalize it, shows the low level on confidence in Hill. Alex Smith might go down as the worst #1 overall pick ever, a fragile product of the shotgun spread college offense that cannot adapt to the more complex NFL defenses and faster speed of the game. Hill is accurate, more mobile than credited, and has a knack for extending plays and making something out of nothing, but he doesn't really look the part and lacks the downfield arm to scare defenses. He has a successful record, but those seven wins look a lot less impressive when you factor in the level of competition. I don't mean to be too hard on Hill, because he is exactly the type of player I openly root for -- a hard-working, humble, intelligent guy who has to fight for everything, but he's nothing more than an average NFL starter on his better days.
2. The Michael Crabtree saga. This offense is desperate for an impact wideout, someone who can help Hill and open up the field for the running game. Crabtree certainly has the athletic potential to do that, though even the cream of the rookie wide receiver crop generally tops out at about 60 catches for 750 yards and five or six touchdowns. His prolonged, asinine holdout has scuttled any chance for a successful rookie season and torpedoed any hope for improving the passing offense. The #1 wide receiver remains Isaac Bruce, about five years beyond his prime and best-suited to be a veteran mentor and possession receiver (and still a darn good one). Promising but unproven Josh Morgan is the #2, a role he clearly did not look comfortable with during preseason. Jason Hill, Arnaz Battle, Brandon Jones -- not exactly a group that inspires confidence. Crabtree had the potential to change all that and add a dynamic, electric playmaker to the passing game. Now he has doomed the 49ers to this fate: The last team to sign their first round pick has missed the playoffs every season since the Panthers and Jaguars entered the league. That assumes he signs, which is not a certainty.
3. The lack of a pass rush is a huge problem. The fact that the team did little to address this problem is just as much of a concern. In a 3-4 defense, the outside linebackers are the primary pass rushers and are counted on to consistently generate pressure. The 49ers have Parys Haralson and Manny Lawson. Haralson is effective in spurts, netting a team-leading eight sacks, and he's young enough to still have good upside. That takes care of one side, at least plausibly. On the other side, Lawson has been a huge disappointment. For a player whose only job on defense has been to rush the passer -- former Coach Nolan intimated as such -- getting just 5.5 sacks in 3 seasons is a glaring inadequacy. To be fair, he's missed the equivalent of one full season to injury, but that brings up the durability issue -- he's either injury-plagued or just not very good, take your pick. I know 49ers fans are waiting for him to burst out and make skeptics like me look foolish, but I'll believe it when I see it at this point. He does look physically stronger, so all hope is not lost. The depth chart behind those two is troubled Ahmad Brooks and former Charger Marques Harris. Perhaps Justin Smith can explode for double-digit sacks at end, but he'll be 30 by October and has been remarkably consistent in getting 6-8 sacks per year, nothing more. Willis and Spikes are a very good inside linebacker package but neither is a blitzer, nor are any of the defensive backs. Depending on marked improvement from Haralson and Lawson is just not trying hard enough by the front office.
4. The "players in their prime" factor. Most skill position players enter their athletic peaks between the ages of 26 and 29, roughly seasons 4-7 (though earlier for running backs). That time frame for 2009 reflects back on the 2003-2006 draft classes. Only Frank Gore, Andy Lee, David Baas, and Parys Haralson are significant contributors, though Lawson, defensive tackle Isaac Sopoaga and tight end Vernon Davis are starters that haven't yet exhausted their upsides. The whiffs on first rounders Davis and Lawson particularly hurt, because the holes they were drafted to plug back in 2006 are still in need of filling. Rashaun Woods, Jason Hill, Brandon Williams, Adam Snyder, Justin Smiley, Kwame Harris, Andrew Williams -- all first-day draft picks that should be key contributors, with only Snyder and Hill still on the roster, and Hill seldom plays. You simply cannot build a playoff team without getting foundational contributions from these draft classes, and the Niners are near the bottom in drafted talent from that era.
5. Look up at the sack and turnover ratios. The 49ers finished 30th and 31st in those respective categories in 2008. These two stats happen to be the easiest areas in which to make a significant jump that translates into more victories. I covered the sketchy pass rush above, but the other side of that coin is protecting their own quarterback. Allowing 55 sacks is unacceptable, and nothing has been done to fix it. The wide receivers are the same, only a year older -- which is not a good thing in Bruce's case. They struggled to get open last year and will do so again. That leads to coverage sacks. San Francisco tried to fix the turnstile at right tackle by signing Max Starks, but his wonky back forced him to retire, which forces Adam Snyder back into the starting lineup. He looked overmatched playing against speed, though perhaps a full season at one spot will help. Both guards are starters for their run blocking acumen, not their pass protection. Hill himself is partially at fault too; he needs to improve the internal clock and throw the ball away quicker, more often. Turnovers are harder to fix, but adding more aggressive defensive backs (especially paired with a better pass rush) is the most reliable way. The Niners added Dre Bly, who will back up young Tarell Brown at corner. Frequent readers will note Bly is a long-time personal favorite, but he looked close to done in Denver last year, clearly a step slower than in his ballhawking prime. Moving Dashon Goldson to starting safety will help, as he is more of a playmaker than Mark Roman. That should come close to leveling the ledger on interceptions, a definite positive. Fumbles are more random to predict, but the 49ers offensive players rank 30th in ball security over the last 3 seasons, which means they are much more likely to fumble the ball more often. If that turnover ratio doesn't improve to zero or better, this team is not going to win more than seven games.
Forecast: The bottom line here is simple -- no non-playoff team did less this offseason to improve itself. I wonder about Mike Singletary's shelf life as head coach, and the constant shuffling of coordinators has ravaged this team into a collection of non-cohesive clusters. The passing offense remains a liability, and the questions about pressuring the other team's offense are still unanswered. 49ers fans don't want to hear it, but last year might actually have been the nadir of this core group. An easy-looking schedule should allow them to threaten seven wins again, and if it clicks early they could very well seize a weak NFC West. But I see more cloudy skies than that. San Francisco finishes 5-11 and in position to take another crack at drafting a franchise quarterback next April. |
