| Jeff Risdon. 29th July, 2010 - 3:23 pm
 2009 record: 8-8
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: +9
Sack Differential: +4
Point Differential: -110
Coming In: WR/KR Ted Ginn, QB David Carr, CB William James
Going Out: CB Dre Bly, QB Shaun Hill, WR Isaac Bruce, WR Arnaz Battle, S Mark Roman, LB Jeff Ulbrich
Key Rookies: G Mike Iupati, T Anthony Davis, S Taylor Mays, LB Navorro Bowman
Offense
QB: Embattled Alex Smith returns as the unquestioned starter, a year after fending off Shaun Hill and raising his level of play. A lot of that improvement stems from the decision to extensively use the shotgun formation, which took away Smith’s primary weakness--the ability to read the defense from under center and not stare at his target while dropping back. Clearly brimming with newfound confidence, Smith raised his completion percentage from 48% to 60% and vastly improved his yards per attempt. With OC Jimmy Raye still in place, Smith should benefit from continuity, something the former #1 overall pick has sorely lacked in his Niners tenure. Smith is healthier than he’s ever been, and his athleticism is still a major asset.
That’s not to say everything is hunky-dory with Smith. Pocket awareness remains a skill with which he struggles. It’s not just that he takes too many sacks (he does, but more on the line later), but it often looks like he has such tunnel vision on where the ball should be going that he gets startled when a defender gets his attention. He also abandons downfield reads too quickly, some of that by function of the offense but also an indication that the oft-injured signal-caller doesn’t want to risk the big hit anymore. His play-action fakes serve no purpose other than to allow the rush more time to get to him. The arm strength and accuracy are both merely adequate, and he lacks the downfield rifle.
But the biggest knock is that Smith just hasn’t exhibited the dynamic leadership expected. The coaching staff went with the obviously less-skilled Hill over Smith to begin last season (and during the prior season) because Smith didn’t inspire confidence or maximum effort out of his teammates. It’s eerily similar to what happened to Tim Couch in Cleveland, who never seized command of a team desperately looking for a strong leader. Like Couch, Smith has often been replaced by inferior talents (no offense to Kelly Holcomb, a truly great guy!), missed his share of time due to injuries, and suffered through tumultuous turnover around him. This is Smith’s last chance to prove to San Francisco that he can be what Couch never could, a legit starting QB for a playoff-caliber team. Early indications are positive, but as any Browns fan can remind you, Tim Couch looked fantastic almost every May too.
Another largely disappointing #1 overall pick, David Carr, takes over as the backup/contingency plan. Now relegated to journeyman status, Carr has many of the same negatives as Smith--poor pocket awareness, to willing to immediately check down to short routes, inconsistent accuracy. He had his moments while backing up Eli Manning in New York the past couple of seasons, and I believe Carr is a good candidate for a later-career renaissance as a solid backup/mentor, something that Smith can surely use. It will be interesting to see how both Carr and Smith handle their roles, and how quick the hook comes should Smith struggle.
Young Nate Davis, famous from his Ball State career, will again hold the clipboard and be groomed for duty down the line. He has the best accuracy and arm on the team but needs more time to digest the playbook and the speed of the NFL game. Rookie Jarrett Brown is practice squad fodder, perhaps with another team.
RB: In preparation for writing this, I re-watched a couple of 49ers games from last season. That perusal made me come to one conclusion, which I uttered about 15 times: “Good lord, Frank Gore does all that by himself.” His impressive string of 4 consecutive 1,000 yard seasons is absolutely stunning when you watch how he accrues all those yards. I don’t really trust the “yards after contact” stat metric (too arbitrary on the “contact” part), but you’ll be hard-pressed to find any modern back who does that any better than Frank Gore. Just in the two games I watched (the Dec. games against ARI and PHI), he suffered the first contact at or behind the line on at least 40% of his runs, yet still bounced and churned his way to over 5 yards per carry and over 100 yards. He’s also a very good receiver, netting at least 40 catches every season and showing the same sort of acumen running after the catch that he does on handoffs.
The toll of doing so much with so little help has never been easy on Gore, who has missed at least two games every year but one and chunks of several others. It was a bad knee injury that hurt his draft stock, and that knee remains the source of a lot of medical attention. The Niners have tried to get him some relief help, but those efforts have been largely unsuccessful. Glen Coffee flopped as a rookie in 2009, running tentatively and unable to create anything for himself. He must add functional lower body strength and get more confident in his feel for the hole. Watching him attempt to stop Karlos Dansby on a delayed blitz was like watching a rabbit try to stop a Silverado. Converted QB Michael Robinson is a great example of why drafting a QB for a position other than QB is almost invariably a huge mistake; he is exclusively a special teams player at this point, if he even makes the final roster. Rookie Anthony Dixon from Mississippi State is built like a power back but doesn’t play to his 235 pound size. He also has over 900 carries in the last 3 seasons, which means the tread on those rookie tires is already quite worn. Bruising 255-pound Jehuu Caulcrick could stick as a RB/FB hybrid if he can continue to improve his blocking. He will compete with Brit Miller for that role, a position in which Miller was not very impressive in ’09. Moran Norris is the incumbent fullback but his better days are behind him and his salary screams “released for monetary reasons”.
WR/TE: The depth chart is pretty clear cut: Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan are the starters, Ted Ginn Jr. is the field-stretching #3, Jason Hill will be the seldom-used 4th wideout, and the team hopes that one of a group of camp invitees beats out the horribly overpaid Brandon Jones for the 5th spot.
Crabtree was the first wideout taken in the ’09 draft (10th overall) but subsequently shot himself in the foot by holding out until October. He never learned more than a handful of plays, didn’t even try to learn to block, and showed those who doubted his speed were on the money. Despite all that, Crabtree also showed why so many thought of him as an elite prospect, leading the team in receiving and often proving uncoverable on short routes because of his freakish quickness out of cuts and precision with his shoulders and feet. A full offseason in camp and increased rapport with Alex Smith should allow Crabtree to blossom in his second season. He could approach 100 receptions if Smith proves worthy, most of which won’t take place more than 10 yards downfield but should allow him to use his savvy running ability to make up the yardage. At least that appears to be the plan.
Morgan is a physical possession receiver and a fantastic blocker. Ideally he would be the third receiver, as he offers little downfield and doesn’t have great height or athleticism, but he fits what the Niners ask of him in the #2 role. He clearly benefitted from Isaac Bruce’s tutelage at running routes and using his body to separate, and the veteran mentor role now falls on Morgan in just his 3rd season out of Virginia Tech. That veteran void will be tough to fill. Newcomer Ted Ginn is everything that Morgan is not--ultra-fast, slender, not at all physical, iffy hands. Ginn just has not developed the way Miami envisioned when taking him #9 overall, losing his job and ultimately shipped out for the proverbial sack of balls. Defenses figured out that they could just drop the corner deep and effectively remove Ginn from the offense, as his short routes are sloppy and he won’t go over the middle. His primary function here will be as a return man, but Ginn will get a chance to run fly patterns with his world-class speed and see if anything clicks with Alex Smith. Good luck with that, as Smith doesn’t throw a great deep ball, often because he doesn’t think he has the time to do so.
Jason Hill had one great game in 2009 (against the secondary-challenged Titans) and finds himself at a crossroads. He fills the same role as Ginn but is bigger and more apt to make a tough catch. If he can’t definitively wrap up that 3rd wideout role over Ginn, he’s probably done in San Francisco. I have long been a Hill supporter and he has potential to be a real asset, but (like Ginn) being a lithe outside-the-hashes speedster is a thankless attribute in this offense with this quarterback. He had his best output with Shaun Hill under center.
Tight end Vernon Davis finally had the kind of season that validated his status as the highest draft pick ever spent on the position (6th overall in 2006, which ties him with Kellen Winslow II two years earlier), catching 13 touchdowns and showing a lot more ability to get open in the 10-15 yard range. The question is: can he do it again? My magic eight ball source says “unlikely”. Defenses will pay more attention to Davis and now have a season’s worth of game tape to scheme on how to do that. He has been inconsistent in the past, and despite the TD surge his yards after the catch actually went down. Expect a regression back to around 50 catches and 3 TDs, which was his track record before the fluke season. One thing that won’t change is his exceptional blocking. He’s the best in the business at blocking while split out, and it’s where his freakish athleticism has really paid dividends. Delanie Walker is a very good receiving #2 TE, doing a lot of his work while split or motioning out. His speed is deceptive and his hands are strong, which allows him to serve the purpose of playing the 4th wideout. Blocking is not his forte, which is why the Niners drafted Nate Byham in the 6th round.
OL: Two first-round rookies will start right away. That is as much an indictment of the dire need for quality up front as it is a reflection on the talent of the two draftees, guard Mike Iupati and tackle Anthony Davis.
Davis will take over at right tackle, where Adam Snyder was probably the weakest starter in the league. The Rutgers product has a full athletic toolbox, but finding the combination to the lock on said toolbox has proven tricky. As I summarized in my scouting report on Davis, he has the potential to be the next Ryan Clady...or George Foster. It’s impossible to ascertain which at this point, and for all the positives I see in his situation (strong coaching personality, good stylistic fit to the offense, strong skill level of opponents) there are just as many negatives (moving to the right side, getting huge $$ without having to do a thing, the strong skill level of his opponents). It’s hard to imagine him being the human turnstile that Snyder was most of the season, but don’t expect Davis to step right in and immediately solve all the problems at RT. Baby steps.
I’m more bullish on Iupati even though he became increasingly overrated as the draft process bore on. He had rare powerful athleticism for a collegiate lineman, and he is as good a run blocking guard to enter the league since Alan Faneca. There is no question he will be a very good run blocker right away, and Frank Gore’s fantasy owners should rejoice in this draft pick. But there are real concerns with his pass protection, which was a problem for former LG David Baas. During Senior Bowl practices Iupati was guilty of holding on almost every single pass play, and game tape showed he got away with a ton of that at Idaho too. He’ll have to improve quickly or else any of the net benefit of his run blocking will be devoured by sacks and penalty yardage. Baas could conceivably hold onto the starting spot if Iupati clearly isn’t ready, but it’s telling that the team has toyed with moving Baas to center this offseason.
Incumbent center Eric Heitmann is solid but not the irreplaceable force that many Niners fans mistakenly believe he is. He creates little surge in run blocking and doesn’t pass block real well outside one step from his starting position. Moving Baas to center would improve the run blocking at the expense of Heitmann’s experience at making the line calls and proficiency at the shotgun snap. Right guard Chilo Rachal is one of the physically strongest players in the league, but he is strictly a phone booth blocker. His lack of consistent focus has consistently disappointed the coaching staff, and his leash will be short this year. Left tackle Joe Staley is the best talent on the line. The former 1st rounder and Central Michigan star seamlessly transitioned to the left side, where his great athleticism and quick wits serve him well. He is coming back from a torn up knee, which is a concern for a guy who relies on quickness like Staley.
Depth up front is interesting. The loser of the guard battle becomes a valuable reserve, though that role must be accepted and not resented. Snyder should slide back to a swing tackle role, where he can provide short-term relief better than being a full-time solution. Veteran Barry Sims wasn’t too bad replacing Staley for half of last season, but he will have to fight off what figures to be a spirited camp battle with Alex Boone. Boone is a former Ohio State star who has transformed his life from being a junk food gulping alcoholic of epic proportions into becoming a lean, mean, fighting machine. Had his personal demons not overtaken him, Boone was a likely first round pick a couple drafts ago. If he’s truly transformed and continues to impress, the tackle depth becomes a real asset; he was just as good at Ohio State as Davis was at Rutgers. Another battle to watch: if Baas does move to center, 2009 4th rounder Cody Wallace probably won’t make the team.
u>Defense
DL: The starters up front are a major asset, one that is underrated by national coverage. Aubrayo Franklin was outstanding at nose tackle, showing a great acumen for tying up blockers and freeing up the playmakers around him. Franklin embraced that role, but still managed to bag a couple of sacks and several run stuffs behind the line. There is some concern over his contractual situation; Franklin played 2009 in a contract year and will once again in 2010 as he and the Niners were unable to get a deal worked out and Franklin will labor under the franchise tag.
Justin Smith continues to fly under the radar as one of the most effective all-around ends in the league, regardless of scheme. The Jacksonville game is a great example of what all Smith can do. In that win, Smith notched 5 tackles (3 for loss), 1.5 sacks and 5 QB hurries, forced a fumble, broke up a pass, and drew two holding penalties. Smith racked up 29 QB hurries for the season, a freakishly high number for a 3-4 end, yet the team would quietly like him to convert more of those into sacks. Even so, he is invaluable for how well he plays the run. Smith also has the versatility to play any line spot except the nose in any formation, and the tinkering around helps keep offenses off balance. He and Franklin together make an excellent combination.
Isaac Sopoaga starts on the left side, and he is more of your stereotypical 3-4 end: bulky, physical, not very agile, does very little that shows up on the stat sheet. He is content to just stay engaged with opposing blockers. Young Kentwan Balmer could conceivably take his starting spot, but his great size and quickness has yet to translate into anything positive on the field. Balmer is on the verge of first-round bustdom and needs to show better instincts and leverage if he hopes to stick beyond this season. Still he remains the top reserve end, which speaks to the imperative of staying healthy up front. Ricky Jean Francois is the top interior reserve, but he is undersized and has yet to play in an NFL game. Journeyman Demetric Evans offers little other than providing the occasional breather on passing downs.
LB: Patrick Willis is the best inside/middle LB in the game today. Big, rangy, and lightning quick, Willis has led the league in tackles two of the last three years and does so with dynamic flair. He can blitz, he can cover tight ends, he can get off blocks as well as anyone. The defense is designed around his prowess, and the supporting LB cast is gradually raising the overall level of play to match him.
Parys Haralson and Manny Lawson are forever linked. Both came from the same 2006 draft class (Lawson in the 1st, Haralson in the 5th), both have started almost their entire careers, and both have demonstrated largely uneven play with flashes of greatness. Lawson has fought with injuries and an almost complete lack of instincts, finally showing improved all-around play in 2009. He still doesn’t get to the QB anywhere near as much as expected, but the team was pleasantly surprised with his newfound acumen at attacking the interior run. Don’t expect more than about 7.5 sacks--a low total for a 3-4 OLB, but if Lawson can maintain the improvement against the run he will be a valuable starter. Haralson has been a more effective pass rusher and runs with a hotter motor. He will overrun plays and lacks the strength at the point of attack to make a big impact. There is speculation that he will be more of a pass rush specialist this season, which serves both him and the defense well.
Ahmad Brooks is also a pass rush specialist, coming off a very strong finish to last season that earned him a new contract. There is great risk with Brooks, a guy the Bengals(!) dropped for character reasons, but he appears to have grown up some and accepts his role here. His 5 forced fumbles led the league last year, and the Niners recovered all five. Veteran Travis LaBoy will be the other backup if he proves he is, and can stay, healthy. If not, former BGSU Falcon Diyral Briggs will fill the 4th OLB spot. He’s a lanky project that earned his roster spot as a UDFA on special teams and for his great attitude.
Takeo Spikes plays the role of veteran sounding board to Willis aside to starting next to him inside. He’s lost more than a step and his tackling range now essentially consists of RBs running into him, but he positions himself very well and sniffs out draws and screens as well as anyone. At 34 Spikes is at the very end of his career, and the Niners are hopeful they can milk one more effective season from him. There are a couple of youngsters that provide depth and promise for the future inside. Scott McKillop and Navorro Bowman are both undersized Pennsylvania guys (McKillop from Pitt, Bowman from PSU) drafted in the middle rounds the last two seasons that will make more mark on special teams in 2010, but I have a good amount of confidence that either could take over for Spikes with little visible dropoff. Matt Wilhelm needs a strong summer to prove he merits a roster spot, even though I always root for my fellow Lorain County (OH) products.
DB: There are more questions here than anywhere else on the defense. Nate Clements has done everything he can to give away his starting job, but as of yet nobody has risen up and taken it from him. Still one of the highest-paid corners in the league, Clements has struggled in coverage and has not produced the big plays expected of him. He remains good against the run and doesn’t rock the boat, but his play has rapidly declined the last two seasons. Shawntae Spencer badly outplayed him in 2009, but he is injury-prone and has generally shown little acumen for making plays on the ball in the air since his one great season in 2005. If he can churn out a repeat performance and stay on the field for 16 games, Spencer helps answer a lot of questions.
Tarell Brown will return as the nickel back, where he is solid. He flopped when given Clements’ starting gig however. He is passive against the run and not as physical in coverage as Clements, which is more of a problem when playing outside Haralson. Veteran William James will try to salvage his career after being let go from Detroit, which has desperately sought any CB to provide even marginal play for years now. He and Dre Bly essentially traded spots, and most observers (myself included) think the Lions got the better of the virtual deal.
Starting safeties Dashon Goldson and Michael Lewis are on decidedly opposite career tracks. Goldson comes off an impressive 2009 where he showed exceptional range and strong tackling. He displayed a knack for forcing turnovers and providing good over-the-top coverage. On the other hand, Lewis struggled in coverage help and continues to be less aggressive against the run. Getting a handful of concussions in a short period will do that to a safety, which is why the team drafted Taylor Mays in the second round. Mays tops my list as the most overrated DB prospect in draft history, a completely uninstinctive weight room wonder that lacks both field and self awareness. He’ll make the occasional highlight-reel thump and will fill the box with authority, but he makes Roy Williams look like Darrelle Revis in coverage. Goldson must produce another Pro Bowl-caliber season and the corners must step up the coverage or else this secondary is quite vulnerable to the passing game.
Special Teams
Andy Lee is in the midst of one of the best punting careers in NFL history. He is almost freakishly consistent with his boots, with nearly every kick going 45 yards and getting above-average hang time. He has led the NFC in both gross and net average in the last 3 years. And that’s all the good news about the Niners special teams.
Joe Nedney is on the decline as the kicker. He’s still money inside 44 yards, but the leg strength is not there for much beyond that anymore. His kickoffs don’t get great depth, which puts more pressure on the coverage units. Those units lost two vital cogs in Jeff Ulbrich and Marcus Hudson, though Scott McKillop showed very good aptitude in coverage. The return units were historically inept. Getting Ginn will help, but game tape reveals some truly dreadful blocking and discipline by the guys in front of the carousel of return men. That doesn’t figure to change.
3 Keys to the season
1. Turnover margin. The +9 from last season is quite positively deceptive, as the team was +17 in four games against careless opponents (DET, STL, ARI on one of Warner’s bad days, and the memorable Jay Cutler INT-fest against the Bears). The offense must cut down on the turnovers, and the defense must be more opportunistic more often. Don’t expect a repeat of leading the league in fumble recoveries either. If they aren’t at least +10 this year, the Niners stand little chance of improving on last year’s 8 wins.
2. Alex Smith and the passing offense. Smith must build upon the progress from last year and seize his last chance to become the franchise QB. He’ll need better play from his wide receivers and a repeat performance from Vernon Davis, both of which are legit questions.
3. Pass defense. The secondary is iffy and lacks depth. The pass rush is less iffy but far from a certainty. This year’s schedule features a lot more prolific passing attacks than last year’s, with New Orleans, Green Bay, San Diego, Atlanta and Philly, plus what figure to be improved situations in Seattle and St. Louis. The offense will not outscore many teams, so it is up to the back end of the defense to keep the games within reach.
Forecast
A lot of publications foresee the Niners running away with the NFC West in 2010, but I’m channeling my inner Lee Corso and saying “Not so fast my friends.” I do really like the defensive front seven and the running of Frank Gore, but that’s not enough to mitigate my questions about the Niners. I simply don’t trust Alex Smith as a franchise QB, certainly not with the lack of receiving punch and playing behind this unproven line. I don’t trust the RB depth behind Gore, who has shown durability issues. I don’t trust a repeat campaign of greatness from Vernon Davis. I don’t trust the secondary beyond Dashon Goldson. There is enough talent here, and enough questions within the division, to merit playoff talk, but I just don’t see that best-case scenario playing out. San Francisco is one of the surprise disappointment teams of 2010, starting slowly and finishing out of the running at 6-10.
*For Niners fans looking for a self-boasting faux pas here, an explanation for the edit: When writing this piece I referred to a hand-written 2009 season record prediction for all teams. I forgot that I modified my prediction for San Francisco (a couple other teams as well) and that is what caused the discrepancy. Sorry about that.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
