| Authored by Andrew Perna - 27th April, 2009 - 4:06 pm
 After months of buildup, the 2009 NFL Draft ended in perhaps the quickest 28 hours of the entire year.
Heading into Saturday's first round, we knew the Lions were going to select Georgia quarterback Matthew Stafford, but the remainder of the Day One studs could have fallen in a variety of different ways, to a variety of different teams.
Believe it or not, the fifth version of my consensus mock draft (posted on Friday afternoon) nailed three of the thirty-two picks, while seven of the picks were within one slot of their projected selection.
With that said, some players enjoyed a tremendous variance in their draft position. Let's take a look at how closely the consensus matched up with the actual draft results.
On The Nose
1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit With news of a contract agreement breaking on Friday night, even I could have predicted this selection.
2. Jason Smith, OT, St. Louis It was nice to see the Rams draft truly based on need. Indications all along were that theyd take Smith, but they could have fumbled and made a "sexier" pick.
15. Brian Cushing, LB, Houston The Texans have a strong history with linebackers, having grabbed DeMeco Ryans in the second round of the 2006 draft.
It Was ThisClose
Consensus Selection Is In ()'s
6. Andre Smith, OT, Cincinnati (7) Smith was taken one spot ahead of the consensus projection, with the Bengals citing no worries about his possible character issues. In actuality, there was no way the Raiders were going to take him.
17. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay (18) The Broncos might have taken Freeman with the 18th pick, but the Buccaneers swooped in and grabbed him after trading from the 17th selection.
30. Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee (31) Britt and Hakeem Nicks went back-to-back to the Giants and Titans, respectively. The consensus had the Rutgers receiver going to the Cardinals, which wasn't going to happen.
4. Aaron Curry, LB, Seattle (3) The consensus had Curry going to the Chiefs, who opted to pick Tyson Jackson, who shot up draft boards last week. The Seahawks pounced on him, much to the chagrin of many who wanted....
5. Mark Sanchez, QB, N.Y. Jets (4) Instead, the Jets stepped into the limelight by trading up for the former USC quarterback. If that didn't happen, he likely goes eighth to the Jaguars or falls down to the bottom third of the first round.
9. B.J. Raji, DT, Green Bay (8) Luckily for Raji, the controversy surrounding his "failed" drug test was cleared up prior to this past weekend.
26. Clay Matthews, OLB, Green Bay (25) The Packers made a sizable defensive score, grabbing Raji and Matthews in the first round. They didn't pick in the second or third, trading those picks to New England for the 26th selection, but still added depth in the later half of the draft.
Close, But No Cigar
11. Aaron Maybin, DE, Buffalo (14) The Bills should have taken a tackle after dealing Jason Peters to the Eagles, but opted to grab Maybin to fortify their defense.
20. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Detroit (20) The consensus had Pettigrew going to the Falcons, but their need for a tight end vanished last week when they acquired Tony Gonzalez. The Lions needed a tight end, but they had much more pressing needs, in my opinion.
22. Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota (26) He has great speed, but I would have taken either Kenny Britt or Hakeem Nicks here if I was making decisions for the Vikings. I'm not just saying that because of his questionable character.
25. Vontae Davis, CB, Miami (29) Davis wasn't going 29th in the draft, unless the Giants used the pick to move up in the first round to grab a pass-catcher. He played well against NFL-type receivers, which bodes well for the Dolphins' secondary this season.
29. Hakeem Nicks, WR, N.Y. Giants (33) Nicks slipped out of the first round in the last consensus, but the Giants couldn't pass on him after deciding not to pursue Braylon Edwards or Anquan Boldin.
8. Eugene Monroe, OT, Jacksonville (5) Some felt as though Monroe was the best tackle in a tackle-heavy draft. The Jaguars took yet another offensive tackle in the second round (name upcoming), which could mean good things for David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew.
10. Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco (6) The Raiders made waves, passing on Crabtree to make Darrius Heyward-Bay the first receiver taken. I don't buy into rumors that he was enraged by falling, but it's strange that Oakland didn't take a guy that appeared tailor-made for them.
13. Brian Orakpo, DE, Washington (10) I don't know if I buy into the Redskins' claim that he was rated in the top-five on their draft board, but then again ... they are the Redskins.
14. Malcolm Jenkins, CB, New Orleans (12) He "dropped" two slots, but I think it was an ideal pick for the Saints. Three of the ten mocks that comprised my consensus had Jenkins going at this very selection.
18. Robert Ayers, DE, Denver (16) I envisioned the Broncos panicking after the Buccaneers moved up to take Josh Freeman. After shocking some by taking a running back with the 12th pick, at least they added to their defense here.
24. Peria Jerry, DT, Atlanta (20) A very nice pick for the Falcons, who were set on the offensive line for the most part after compiling one of the league's best rushing attacks in 2008. He was rated much higher by a lot of people, including RealGM's Jeff Risdon.
32. Evander "Ziggy" Hood, DT, Pittsburgh (30) Many people figured that the Steelers would take a center here either Alex Mack or Max Unger, but they opted to fortify their golden defense instead.
Draft Day Surges
3. Tyson Jackson, DE, Kansas City (9) He absolutely skyrocketed up boards in the days leading up to the draft, and the Chiefs reached up and grabbed him with this pick. Risdon rightfully pointed out on RealGM Radio that he did all the dirty work for LSU last season to his own detriment, which initially lowered his draft stock.
7. Darrius Heyward-Bay, WR, Oakland (22) Some questioned his desire, but the Raiders were impressed enough to take him ahead of Crabtree. It wasn't a complete shock, because there were rumors that Oakland liked him, but I think most hoped it wouldn't become a reality.
12. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver (21) Perhaps the biggest head-scratcher of Day One, Josh McDaniels and Co. kept Mike Shanahan's legacy alive and well in Denver by taking Moreno. Of the ten mock drafts I studied, none had him going higher than sixteenth.
Dropped Like A Rock
19. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia (11) The only real knock on Maclin entering the draft was the fact that he played in a spread offense at Missouri. When the Raiders took Heyward-Bey with the seventh pick, it set Maclin up to drop. The Eagles were more than happy to keep him from slipping into the 20s.
23. Michael Oher, OT, Baltimore (13) I don't understand why a number of teams passed on him from 11-23, where the Ravens grabbed him. He was ranked second in Jeff Risdon's first mock of the season back in October.
39. Eben Britton, OT, Jacksonville (27) Oh boy. Britton made his feelings know immediately upon being draft in the second round. I think he should have kept his feelings a little closer to his chest, but if he does lead the Jags to the Super Bowl he'll look like a prophet.
41. Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut (28) The Patriots traded their first round pick, but got first-round talent with Butler. It helps that he'll carry on the wonderful UConn tradition of Dan Orlovsky in the NFL.
31. Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Arizona (17) Wells, who back in October was Risdon's top-rated prospect, dropped a bit in the first round. However, once he got past some of the teams in need of a runner, he was a near lock to go to the defending NFC champions.
38. Rey Maualuga, LB, Cincinnati (19) The third of three good USC linebackers, Maualuga fell all the way out of the first round. The Bengals filled a need on defense with the pick, and had to be happy with the grab even if he wasn't high on their draft board.
43. Everette Brown, DE, Florida St. (23) This was probably the least-heralded, but the most shocking drop in terms of severity. His drop was more eye-opening than Britton's, but he remained respectful.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGMs Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
