| Authored by Brian English - 13th October, 2006 - 7:12 pm
 I know what you’re thinking. And you’re wrong: Arnaz Battle is not going to help you turn your fantasy season around.
Of course, you think I’m wrong. You think, “Arnaz is coming on. He’s going to be the new favorite target of Alex Smith, and Smith needs a big-time, game-breaking receiver. Arnaz Battle is that receiver.”
Uh … no. He’s not that receiver. He is that most dangerous of fantasy football gaffs: the One-Week Wonder. He is the goat in winner’s clothing. He is a tease. A lie. And all he’s going to do is cost you some games. So take a breath. Log off of ArnazBattle.com (frightening but true: there actually is an ArnazBattle.com) and listen to some sense.
Before his four-catch, 37-yard, 2 TD performance against Oakland (that’s right – Oakland) this past Sunday, Arnaz was invisible in the box scores. He had a trio of three-catch games and one two-catch game. His biggest day was in Week 2 against the Rams when he had 78 yards receiving. And 56 of those yards came on one catch. He didn’t score.
But I know you still love him. And you’re not alone. You’ll snag him off of wires this week and, if you’re really crazy, or terribly desperate, you might just start him this weekend. And if you’re one of those guys, you should know that your new points machine Arnaz will face San Diego this weekend. Good luck with that.
Every season produces a new crop of previously unknown players who come out of nowhere to post monster numbers and become NFL stars. This year, fantasy players all over the country used the waiver wire to pick up reliable starters like Bernard Berrian, Marques Colston, Jerricho Cotchery, Robbie Gould, Reggie Williams, Greg Jennings, and Maurice Jones-Drew.
But many fantasy players also picked up useless wastes of roster space like Wali Lundy, Maurice Morris, Michael Robinson, Mike Furrey, and yes – even Ron Dayne.
This isn’t a column that will tell you to steer clear of the waiver wire. I am living proof that it can turn your season around. Back in Week 4 of the 1999 season, I picked up a little-known quarterback who’d managed to string together a few unlikely wins with some surprisingly big numbers. His name was Kurt Warner. And I’d like to thank him for helping me win my league and take my family on a nice vacation.
The waiver wire and its uses vary considerably from league to league. No matter how your league works, don’t go shopping the wire without keeping these important rules in mind:
CHECK THE SCHEDULE
A lot of Maurice Morris owners found this one out the hard way. When Shaun Alexander went down with a broken foot after his Week 3 game against the Giants, Morris was immediately the first choice of most waiver wire vulchers. And it probably wasn’t until later that these poor bastards realized what was in store for Maurice. First, a trip to Chicago to face the Bears D. After that, he had a bye.
In Week 6 Maurice will get what could be his last start of the year against the Rams; Alexander is expected to be ready to go again by Week 7. So, without factoring in what Maurice does against St. Louis this weekend, he will have gained a grand total of 35 yards rushing for his owners. Not exactly the steal he looked like at first, huh?
Looking ahead is the key when grabbing the waiver wire guys. There is all kinds of grief and misfortune hidden there. Does he have a bye week that matches another of your key players at the same position? What teams does he face in the immediate future (hint: you don’t want the running back that has to go up against Chicago and San Diego)? And, if he’s an injury replacement, how long will he actually get any playing time? The shrewdest fantasy owners are always looking for the guys that could become a factor for their playoff push.
TAKE THE TEAM’S TEMPERATURE, NOT THE PLAYER’S
After Week 4, I dropped Lee Evans to pick up Chris Henry after his 69-yard, 2 TD performance against the Steelers. As you all know, Henry was deactivated just before the Bengals’ Week 4 game against the Patriots. Evans has since had two 90 yard games, and scored this past weekend against the Bears. Henry? Well, he’s been suspended for two more games.
If I had paid more attention to the team situation in Cincinnati, I would have known to at least be wary of Henry. Don’t just rely on the big sites like ESPN.com or CNNSI.com. Some of the best info can be found in the local newspapers for a team’s city. Look at Miami. Is Daunte Culpepper’s injury really serious, or are they handing the offense over to Joey Harrington and hoping for a spark? Harrington’s waiver wire value hinges on the answer to that question.
Another example is the running back situation in Green Bay. Ahman Green has injury issues, so everyone thought Vernand Morency was the answer. And he was until he fumbled twice early in last Sunday’s game against the Rams. Enter Noah Herron, the third-string back who responds with 106 yards and a score. Before you drop someone you know to make that grab for Herron no one knew existed before this past Sunday, you might want to check out what the Packers plan to do with him going forward.
HOW BIG A PART OF THE OFFENSE IS HE?
Colts tight end Ben Utecht seems like a good pick up. Peyton Manning has been looking for him more and more in the red zone. The problem is, Manning has three pass catching tight ends to look for in the red zone; Indy might be the first team in the history of the league that has a platoon system for tight ends. So far this season, this is what they’ve done:
Dallas Clark
11 receptions for 124 yards, 2 TDs
Bryan Fletcher
5 receptions for 34 yards and 2 TDs
Ben Untecht
6 receptions for 62 yards, 0 TDs (did not play against Tennessee)
The conclusion I would draw based on these stats would be, if I can’t get Dallas Clark, I stay the hell away from the Colts tight ends. Always check a team’s season stats when you’re researching a waiver player. These stats are the most telling, and combined with the other factors mentioned above will give you a good idea of how the player fits into the offense. This is where the One-Week Wonder gets exposed, and his once-in-a-lifetime big game will stick out like the proverbial sore thumb.
All of these strategies will keep One-Week Wonders from littering your roster and lowering your scores.
One final hint: you might want to seriously consider going out and snagging Arnaz Battle. The way my fantasy season is going, he’s probably about to become the league MVP. |
