Last Week: 8-8, making the two-week tally a very disappointing 15-17. Ouch! A couple of quick hits before the forecast... -- Kenny McKinley?s suicide is a real stunner. I interviewed Kenny during Senior Bowl week in 2009 for a solid 15 minutes, talking about playing in the SEC, how excited he was to be included as one of the top seniors, and how hard he had worked at improving his strength and conditioning. He seemed like an earnest, humble, positive young man, which makes news of his suicide all the more troubling. I don?t know anything about his circumstances, and I don?t really want to know; the news is bad enough, I don?t need more context. RIP Kenny. -- Eagles coach Andy Reid named Michael Vick the starting QB for the foreseeable future. While I advocated for this move, a smart poster on the message boards here at RealGM presented an excellent counter argument. To quote MayoisMemphis: The whole point of trading McNabb was not paying him a new extension and building towards the future, how the hell does playing a 30 year old on his last year of his deal accomplish either of those goals? If they wanted to compete for the Super Bowl they should've just kept McNabb. I find it hard to argue with that rationale, but I think some wheels are turning behind the scenes. Vick?s camp is angling hard for an extension and (presumably) will take lower-than-market value in exchange for the opportunity and security. That, and the Eagles have always been among the most active wheelers and dealers and quickest to jettison good players. Their former GM is in Cleveland, a team that desperately needs a QB (sorry Colt McCoy) and has some marketable assets, namely Shaun Rogers and what looks like very early picks in every round of the upcoming draft. Philly has rebuked those advances thus far, but don?t forget this team was extremely high on rookie QB Mike Kafka and isn?t shy about creating opportunities for younger, cheaper talent. Beach weather Game of the Week: Green Bay at Chicago: ESPN gets a very appealing matchup for MNF this week, as two teams with very explosive passing offenses meet for the NFC North lead in Chicago. I?m picking Chicago in this one for a variety of reasons: -- The Packers will really miss Ryan Grant and his ability to keep Julius Peppers honest on the edge. -- Jay Cutler is playing with great confidence, and Mike Martz has designed prudent plays that get the ball out of his hand quickly. Cutler is reading the blitz and feeling the pressure better than he ever has before. -- The Bears special teams remain excellent, and they?re even better at home. -- Soldier Field will be rocking under the lights, which can disrupt the OL communication for the Packers and makes an already susceptible unit play under more pressure. -- Bears coach Lovie Smith has called two very good games thus far, apparently figuring out he is in fact allowed to make in-game adjustments after all these years. The coaching disadvantage that has plagued Chicago recently is being mitigated. It all adds up to the Bears running away with a 34-30 win in what should be excellent viewing for the national audience. Sunny games: Dallas at Houston: I?ve watched Dallas? first two games twice apiece, and two things stand out. Foremost, their linebacker play is atrocious, and the safeties behind them haven?t been much better. No back seven (eight in their case since they play a 3-4) spends more time on their backs than the Cowboys. Secondly, they play tentative in stressful situations. From the red zone offense to third and short on both sides of the ball, they do not dictate the action in key spots. That is a function of a lack of leadership, both from the coaching staff and in the locker room. You can?t win in this league being passive, a lesson the Texans have learned and (finally) applied to their own team. Houston?s comeback a week ago was a result of relentless pressure, not just on the Redskins but upon one another to refuse to accept losing. That is the sign of a playoff contender, and the talent is there. They will miss suspended man-child Duane Brown at LT, but unless the rest of the Dallas defense greatly raises their collective games, DeMarcus Ware can get his 3.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles against backup Rashad Butler and the Texans should still be able to survive. They dominated the Colts with a physical rushing attack, and then they torched a very good Washington pass defense for team-record yardage last week. That sort of balance is very hard to contain. I also get the sense from the Texans that they are not overconfident or too emotionally high; Gary Kubiak?s best attribute as a coach is his even demeanor, and his charges have adopted his approach. That serves them well at home in front of what figures to a raucous partisan crowd full of fans tired of feeling second-rate to that team up I-45. Look for a shootout, because Houston?s young secondary is still finding its way. Texans 40, Cowboys 36. New York Jets at Miami: We find out more about who these Jets really are this week. Are they the offensively inept squad that lost to punchless Baltimore, or are they the team that blew past the Patriots on the road in a display of efficient sharpness? My best guess is they are both. This is a New York team that will be inconsistent on offense all year long. If LT can run the way he did last week, that will help quite a bit, but I need to see it to believe it wasn?t just taking advantage of a suspect Patriots (yeah, you read that right!) defense. The Braylon Edwards bonehead arrest won?t help, though Braylon has a knack for turning personal adversity into one of his two strong games per season. Miami has been quite good at getting pressure on the QB and disrupting timing, so don?t expect a lot of points or yards...for either team. Lost in the hubbub over the pathetic offense in the opener is how thoroughly dominant the Jets own defense is playing. Not having Revis Island will hurt, but Miami apparently going without Brandon Marshall evens that out. I believe that means this game will come down to which team can run the ball better and which QB can deliver on 3rd down more consistently. I?ll take Miami in both areas by a slim margin, and that?s the forecast for the game as well. Miami 20, New York 17. Atlanta at New Orleans: The Falcons players won?t admit to it publicly, but I?ve got firsthand info that they view this game as their opportunity to announce their presence with authority, to steal from Bull Durham. This is a very quietly confident team that believes they can beat anyone, anywhere. New Orleans is a formidable foe, but coming off a short week after such a physical game against the 49ers, I think they?re vulnerable even at home. The Saints have won seven of the last eight meetings, but this is a different Dirty Bird. Matt Ryan has the poise and the weaponry at his disposal to exploit the blitz-happy Saints D, and I think the Saints offense and special teams will miss Reggie Bush quite a bit. Those screens and stretch plays just won?t be the same without him, which frees the safeties to focus more on helping in coverage over the middle. It won?t be easy, and it wouldn?t surprise me if New Orleans comes out and romps, but I like the Falcons to pull the upset special in the Superdome. Atlanta 29, New Orleans 27. Fair skies games: San Francisco at Kansas City: Need a reason why the Chiefs are a surprising 2-0? Look no further than heretofore disappointing DE Glenn Dorsey, who is finally putting it all together the way many expected he would when he was the #5 overall pick in the 2008 draft. Dorsey has 8 tackles, a sack, 4 QB hurries, and has been a real bull against the run. He?s the clubhouse leader for Most Improved Player. Having said that, I?m still not overly impressed with the Chiefs. Matt Cassel has attempted just four passes longer than 20 yards in their two games, and they caught a flat Chargers team at home in the rain and a poor Browns offense playing a backup QB. The Niners come off the heartbreaking loss on MNF, where they pretty much controlled the game against the defending champs but couldn?t earn the win. They are probably the better team here, but the reasons they lost to New Orleans aren?t just going to go away overnight. Alex Smith remains a car in search of a crash at QB. He is coming off perhaps the best game of his pro career (ask Steve Young!) and he still threw two INTs and played with tangible nervous energy. Throwing 9 screens caught the Saints in some blitzes, but the Chiefs run a different sort of pressure and their LBs flow to the ball reasonably well. Smith must prove he will continue to look for Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree down the field when blitzed, and you?d better believe a sage old Defensive Coordinator like Romeo Crennel will make him prove it. Repeatedly. I give the Chiefs a slight advantage in that regard, but I just don?t see KC being able to score on the 49ers physically imposing defense, and I do see that defense being able to score one on their own. San Francisco in a 18-9 yawner. Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay: It?s infrequent that a 2-0 team is a home underdog, but that speaks a lot about who the Buccaneers have beaten. Pittsburgh is on its 4th string QB in Charlie Batch but he?ll still be the best QB the Bucs have seen this year, and he understands how to take what the defense gives him. That?s important because the Bucs defense has given little quarter so far. Pittsburgh?s own defense figures to be the story here. They have completely bottled up Matt Ryan and forced 7 turnovers against the Titans, and Tampa has not shown much punch offensively despite the two wins. Pittsburgh just has too many defensive weapons for Josh Freeman to handle. Steelers 20, Bucs 3. Detroit at Minnesota: I?d like to think that the improvements we?ve seen with these Lions will keep coming even after two close losses to pretty good teams. That won?t be easy with the trip to Minnesota, which is desperate at 0-2 themselves. If Matt Stafford were back I?d be inclined to pick the Lions, who have played the Vikings tough even in their winless season. Brett Favre seems disinclined to trust his wideouts, and if he can?t find them in this one against a weak Detroit secondary, it?s a very bad sign for Minnesota. Jahvid Best provides some hope for Detroit and should help cover the ridiculous 10.5 point spread, but I really like Minny?s D to rise up here. Vikings 27, Lions 17. Philadelphia at Jacksonville: One of the more intriguing misperceptions I?ve heard this week is how Michael Vick?s mobility will help him out behind the suspect middle of the Eagles OL. The irony is that Vick ranks in the bottom 10 all time in terms of sacks per pass attempt; only David Carr and Aaron Rodgers rank higher amongst active QBs in sacks per attempt. That shows the fine line between using your legs to avoid a sack and knowing when to throw the ball away. He got sacked six times last week by Detroit. The encouraging development for Philly fans is how well Vick kept his eyes downfield on the run last week and that he didn?t turn the ball over. Jacksonville has perhaps the weakest secondary in the league, and despite Aaron Kampman?s best efforts, they still don?t have a consistent pass rush. I think MJD will find success against the undersized Philly defense, but not nearly enough success to carry JAX to a win. Philly rolls 31-24. Unseasonably blustery weather games: Buffalo at New England: You have to feel for Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bills decide to change QBs just before playing a Patriots team that is almost certain to light up the Bills anemic defense. That means a lot of dropbacks behind a shaky OL and a whole lot of Patriots blitzing him from all angles, and nobody to throw to other than Lee Evans. This is quite literally a no win situation for both Fitzpatrick and the Bills, whose only chance is to run the ball 30+ times and hope Tom Brady is having an uncharacteristic off day. It?s more likely that Sarah Palin starts campaigning for universal governmental health care and more taxes. There is no lipstick on this pig of a game. New England 30, Buffalo 9. Cincinnati at Carolina: A few faithful readers have pointed out, mostly in a friendly manner, that I am 0-2 in my survivor fantasy picks this year. Even before the season began I chose the Bengals as my pick this week, based on Carolina?s complete ineptness at throwing the ball. Mike Zimmer?s defense is simply too strong to attack one-dimensionally, certainly not with a rookie QB making his first start. Jimmy Clausen gets fed to the wolves, err tigers, and the Bengals feast with improved special teams and their own rookie, TE Jermaine Gresham, having a huge day. In my survivor fantasy pick this week, the Bengals dominate the punchless Panthers 32-13. If you like to play the percentages and think I?m still ice cold in that fantasy game, take the Panthers...at your peril! Indianapolis at Denver: It is very difficult to predict how Denver handles the tragic suicide of Kenny McKinley. Different teams have handled similar situations in very different ways. Some groups have responded to this type of adversity by rallying with positive emotion and blown away the world (the Sean Taylor Redskins come to mind), while others collapse into a funk of wistfulness and lose their competitive edge (the Cory Smith Lions). Denver unfortunately has more experience dealing with this sort of situation than any other team, but I?m not sure that means anything; they could very well be numb to it as a by-product. This was going to be a very difficult matchup to begin with, as the Colts found their offensive rhythm and reasserted their defensive physicality in pummeling the Giants. It was going to take a Herculean effort by Kyle Orton, Brian Dawkins, and the defensive front to pull off the win even before this unfortunate circumstance. I?ll go with that sentiment and pick the Colts, but beware the wounded animal protecting its home in desperate situations. Indy 30, Denver 24. Cleveland at Baltimore: Just how bad is Baltimore?s offense? They rank in the bottom 10 of every stat metric and in the bottom 3 in most of those. Only the hapless Bills have a worse offensive efficiency rating, and the team is dead last in turnover ratio. That plays into the hands of a Cleveland defense that has shown a propensity for getting pressure on the QB and forcing turnovers. Hidden factor that gives the Browns a chance: Baltimore ranks 27th in punt return differential and 31st in kickoff differential, which means Josh Cribbs could steal the show. Aww, who am I kidding? This is a largely inept Browns offense travelling to Baltimore to play Ray Lewis & Co. The Ravens D has been fantastic, leading the league in yards allowed on first down plays by over a yard. That leads to a lot of 3rd and longs and that means blitzes, which compensates for their own iffy secondary (which has played better than expected). They haven?t been good at forcing turnovers, but the Browns subpar QBs should help them in that regard. Ravens 13, Browns 6, but beware the proverbial ?get right? game for the Ravens and a 37-3 spanking. Washington at St. Louis: Rookie QB Sam Bradford has performed reasonably well thus far, but he gets a major challenge here with a very good Redskins defense. Forget that the Texans racked up huge yards on them last week, as that was a great offense staging a furious comeback. Don?t forget that this is the same Redskins team that became Detroit?s breakout win in Week 3 a year ago, and that embarrassment still stings. It won?t happen again, not with Donovan McNabb looking like he?s 27 again and their fantastic pass rush, led by Brian Orakpo. Redskins 31, Rams 10. Tennessee at New York Giants: This game features two teams that looked like Super Bowl contenders in Week 1 and candidates for a top 5 draft pick in Week 2. The one constant has been the Titans very strong defensive front, and that matches up very well with a Giants OL that is no longer an asset. Yet the argument against picking Tennessee is compelling as well. Vince Young is wildly inconsistent and has struggled with accuracy and decision-making issues, and the Giants defense has shown some opportunistic ability to create turnovers. Still, I like the Titans better in a close game because Chris Johnson can hit the home run from anywhere on the field and because Vince Young has shown an uncanny knack for pulling out improbable victories even when playing poorly. I know it?s in New York, but the Titans/Oilers have won the last three against the Giants in New York, twice in Super Bowl seasons for the G-Men. Tennessee in the upset 24-21. Oakland at Arizona: Strange meeting this early in the season for teams with a common opponent, but both these teams are 1-1 by virtue of beating the Rams and getting annihilated in their other game. This is Arizona?s home opener and their defense must be licking their chops at facing Oakland?s woeful pass protection. Darnell Dockett and Clark Haggans both have a history of playing much better at home, and the Raiders are starting rookie Jared Veldheer at LT in front of replacement QB Bruce Gradkowski. I like Veldheer?s long-term potential, but this figures to be a rough inauguration. Derek Anderson is due for his monthly game of greatness, and Larry Fitzgerald should find deep holes as a function of Oakland?s spotty safety play. Cards win 27-17. San Diego at Seattle: After both these teams turned in surprising Week 1 performances, I believe the true colors of both reared their heads last week. San Diego is an explosive offense even without Vincent Jackson thanks to Philip Rivers, who is playing with supreme confidence. Their defense found its stride last week as well. Seattle stunned the Niners in the opener before pissing away repeated opportunities last week against Denver. That fly will remain open, as the patchwork Seattle OL will be no match for Shawne Merriman & Co. San Diego 33, Seattle 13. Drinking in the Dorm Room games: Last week: 4-1, making the season record 8-2. Alabama 30, Arkansas 20 Boise State 34, Oregon State 33 West Virginia 22, LSU 20 Auburn 20, South Carolina 17 Stanford 40, Notre Dame 31 And beware Temple upsetting Penn State!