Snow and cold have enveloped most of the country, but that won?t stop the football fans from showing up en masse and supporting their teams. Only one of the games is indoors, which means weather could be more of a factor. Every game this weekend is also a rematch, a rare anomaly that gives us a baseline of relevant information to work off. Both AFC games are intra-divisional games featuring bitter rivals, which makes for some excellent game-week discussions on sports talk radio. Seattle at Chicago: Chicago is the only team left standing that I think the Seahawks can beat, and there?s more to it than the fact they did it earlier this season. I worry about Chicago being rusty off the bye week, an issue that has plagued Mike Martz offenses and Lovie Smith defenses in the past. I worry about Martz forgetting that the run is in fact an offensive option. I worry about the Jay Cutler versus Earl Thomas matchup, particularly the way the Seahawks brought pressure on Drew Brees last week. I worry that Seattle is one of the few teams that can go toe to toe with the Chicago special teams, an edge which the Bears typically utilize to great advantage. I worry that Seattle could get a quick 10-0 lead and the home fans will turn on the Bears; no home fans are more fickle with their in-stadium support than the Soldier Field denizens. I worry about Chicago?s propensity to put itself in 2nd and 10s and 3rd and 13s--only the Panthers and Bengals had 3rd and 10+ to go more often that Chicago. I worry that Seattle?s confidence from lighting up the Saints will meld with their confidence from having already won this season in Chicago and carry them to unexpected heights once again. It?s at this point that I?m reminded of Joe Pesci in My Cousin Vinny. In that screen gem, Pesci?s Vinny Gambini counters a well-laid out but highly circumstantial argument with the rebuttal, ?Everything that guy said is bullshit?. I laid out reasons why the unthinkable upset can happen here, and I think the Seahawks actually match up better with the Bears than the Saints. But I really don?t see Seattle pulling another game like last week out of the circumstantial ether. Chicago?s defense has a whole lot to do with that. Bears 31, Seahawks 16. New York Jets at New England: Jets coach Rex Ryan is doing a masterful job of making everyone ignore the elephant in the room for this game. That would be New England 45, New York 3 a little over a month ago. As far as elephants go, that?s a pretty massive one. The most relevant gleaning from that game is how badly the Jets missed Jim Leonhard, their criminally underrated safety. New York was lost in coverage all game long, and their weak pass rush gave Brady way too much time to pick them apart. The Patriots are already problematic in that they don?t have a defined #1 wideout for the Jets to isolate on Revis Island, and the rest of the secondary struggles in zone coverage with all the movement and crosses that are staples of the New England offense. Since then the Jets have had time to compensate for Leonhard?s loss. They still miss him, but they?ve patched together a respectable replacement plan now. That unit played very well against Peyton Manning last week, as did the defensive front. But New England has a vastly superior OL and running game to the Colts, and the aforementioned lack of a defined go-to downfield threat foils what the Jets want to do very nicely. The emergence of the New England secondary in its own right is why I give the Jets little chance here. Devin McCourty is on fire and would have been Defensive Rookie of the Year in most seasons; he earned his trip to the Pro Bowl. The Patriots safeties fill the second level against the run pretty well, preventing the long gainers that flip the field and demoralize the defense. With the way The Sanchize has struggled with accuracy and turnovers lately, big advantage to New England. And then there?s the matter of professionalism. It?s fascinating to watch how these two polar opposite regimes handle business. New York is bombastic, obnoxious, outwardly confident and prone to expletive-laden personal attacks. All their focus is external. And that?s not necessarily a negative; the players have clearly bought into Rex Ryan?s braggadocio and wear it pretty comfortably. You might not like it, but they don?t give a bleep. New England is stoic, sullen, and spews nothing but clich?s and deeply subversive, almost imperceptible trash talk. When they do talk, it?s about what they have to do and all about their own execution. That sort of laser focus on what is important to them, and they?re not going to play the kind of games the Jets are desperate to entice them into playing. In short, they don?t break character, and their character is proven to be playoff-tested and highly effective against the Jets? style. So can the Jets win? Absolutely, if they can get pressure on Brady, get a couple of fortuitous turnovers, and Sanchez has a line that looks something close to 20-for-28, 249 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. All those things have happened before and can happen again. But to put it in meteorological terms, that computer model deviates from the vast majority of hypothetical outcomes. In layman?s terms, that?s a 30% chance of rain on an otherwise sunny day. New England 28, New York 17. Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Every meeting between these two teams is almost exactly the same. Expect a defensive struggle with lots of hyper-aggressive attacking by the front sevens on both teams to try and compensate for the vulnerabilities at corner. Both teams will try to run the ball and meet very limited, but not unsubstantial, success. There will be a lot of punts, and each team will commit a turnover or two. And the team that can produce one or two big plays at key times will win. Even though the game is in Pittsburgh and the home team has the better, more proven quarterback, I think it will be the Ravens that pull off more big plays. One of the biggest reasons is their advantage in the kicking game, where Billy Cundiff has done a fantastic job at controlling field position. Pittsburgh is working with replacements at kicker and punter. Sean Suisham?s range in Heinz Field tops out at about 44 yards, and Jeremy Kapinos is a major downgrade from Daniel Sepulveda at punter. I?m also struggling with Pittsburgh?s makeshift offensive line handling Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, and Cory Redding. Ben Roethlisberger is freakishly strong and mobile, but he has his limitations. I also really like Ed Reed and the incredible groove he?s found, leading the league in interceptions despite missing six games. He always plays better in big games, and he knows exactly what the Steelers receivers are going to do. Troy Polamalu effectively cancels that out, but I just foresee Reed making a huge play that turns the game. Pair that with the Ravens winning the field position battle, and I like the Ravens here. Baltimore 17, Pittsburgh 13. Green Bay at Atlanta: I?ll say it up front-- I like the Packers to win this game. But what bothers me is that almost everyone feels that way too. Atlanta is the #1 seed after all, nearly indomitable at home, and has no real fatal flaws. All season long the Falcons have come up with impressive victories in close games, while the Packers still struggle. That includes the first meeting between these two. So why do I like Green Bay, like everyone else? Here are three reasons: 1. Aaron Rodgers is playing like a man possessed since his return from his concussion. He?s been the best player in the league over the last month, and he?s taken the next step by proving he can win a playoff game on the road. 2. Atlanta is coming off a bye, which in recent playoff history has proven to create more negative rust than positive rest. That would be tremendously out of character for Mike Smith?s team, but even two drives of shaking off the rust could make a big difference in this one. 3. The bookies like the Packers. The line on this game opened with Atlanta as 2.5 point favorites. Consider that the home team automatically gets 3 points, and what they?re saying is that they believe Green Bay is slightly better than Atlanta. It?s rare that the #6 seed is viewed as equal to, or slightly better than the #1 seed, and when it happened in the past the bookies were right. Two years ago, Tennessee was the #1 seed but favored by just 1.5 at home against #6 seed Baltimore. The Ravens won 13-10. I see many parallels between this Atlanta team and that Tennessee team. Both were unexpected #1 seeds with very good turnover ratios, strong running games, but scant playoff experience. Both teams thrived on making fewer mistakes and letting the other guys beat themselves. That works better in the regular season than the playoffs. Teams that are willing to take risks stand a better chance of getting rewarded, and the blitz-happy Packers defense and Aaron Rodgers targeting downfield in a 4-wide sets are most definitely taking shots that I don?t see the Falcons trying themselves. I think Green Bay is more apt to make the kinds of big plays that win playoff games. Nothing against Atlanta, which remains the best, most well-rounded team in the NFC on paper and won?t be an easy out precisely because they won?t beat themselves. But I think the Packers will beat them. Green Bay 24, Atlanta 23. Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com