It?s turkey time, and in many parts of the country it?s the unofficial start of winter. In Dr. Isaac?s Meteorology classes at Ohio U., winter was always the fun class of the series because it was forecast practice. Every day each student got to predict 9 different weather factors for the following day, earning one point for each category. The student with the most points at the end of the quarter got an ?A? for the class and didn?t have to take the final exam. And let me tell you, one less final right before Spring Break is never a bad thing, especially for a less-than-dedicated student like me, who did most of his studying either hunched over a barstool or in between snaps of NCAA Football 96 on my Sega system. The excitement of the impending snowfall must have inspired my football forecasting ability as well, as I went a strong 12-4 for Week 11. Following my gut worked well, and since Thanksgiving will inevitably mean a bigger gut, I should have even more ongoing success. Thanksgiving Day games, or ?thanks for giving men an excuse to get away from all the family crap? games Green Bay (3) at Detroit (16): Ever since Barry Sanders retired, the Lions have not fared real well on Thanksgiving. But now they have an offensive coordinator, Mike Martz, who would have no idea how to use Sanders, so perhaps the Lions have a chance. This should be a defensive struggle punctuated by the occasional breakdown in the secondary that leads to a scant few big plays. Nobody does big plays better than Favre and the Packers, who have proven they can run the ball lately. If the invaders from the Land of Cheese triumph, they essentially clinch the NFC North by seizing a 4-game lead with 5 to play, plus all tiebreakers. I have a hard time picking against Shaun Rogers on a day that celebrates gluttonous eating, but the forecast doesn?t bode well for the giant Lions DT. Green Bay 24, Detroit 17. NY Jets (29) at Dallas (2): The Jets improbable upset of Pittsburgh last week sure looks like the ?Snowstorm in Phoenix? freakish outcome of the year. I liked what I saw from young QB Kellen Clemens, and I really liked the play of the beleaguered Jets DL, who got consistent penetration and made strong tackles against a very good Steelers run game. The forecast models in my head put the chances of that happening two weeks in a row at around 1%, and the fact this game is in Dallas on Thanksgiving probably makes that seem optimistic. Dallas sends the home crowd home to turkey dinner happy. Cowboys 33, Jets 16. Indianapolis (4) at Atlanta (28): Anyone else notice that ever since those ESPN ads featuring Colts K Adam Vinatieri flaunting his rings in the airport screener started airing, he?s been a pretty lousy kicker? At least he?s still healthy, more than can be said for a great deal of his teammates. The banged up Colts are on ?survive? mode instead of their usual ?dominate? mode, and that gives the Falcons a chance. I would like their chances more if they hadn?t laid a complete egg against the Bucs last week. The Colts run the same base defense the Bucs do, only with faster players, and the Colts offense should allow them to bear their full teeth with an early lead. Indy keeps the listing playoff-bye ship afloat with a hard-earned 24-17 victory. Best of the Rest, or ?The gravy is still warm and my brother hasn?t eaten all the stuffing yet? game Philadelphia (10) at New England (1): Perhaps a more dangerous game than a lot of people think it is for the Patriot pursuit of perfection. The Eagles defense can get pressure from Trent Cole, their secondary makes plays, and they play a physical style that will try to not let Randy Moss & Co. get clean releases or find comfort down the field. The Pats are vulnerable to big plays, and the Eagles have one of the best home-run hitters in the league in Brian Westbrook, and the return of TE LJ Smith will keep one of their solid LBs tied up from either putting pressure on McNabb (or Feeley, if the injured McNabb can?t go) or shadowing Westbrook. It will still take the Eagles playing their absolute best and catching the Patriots on a bad day for this to not be a whooping, but this is the most vulnerable game outside of the Pittsburgh game left on the New England regular season schedule. But the Eagles couldn?t do much of anything against the high-octane Cowboys, and the Patriots do it with a more ruthless efficiency than Jerry Jones can dream of. New England 38, Philadelphia 17. Nice Leftovers, or ?Ooh! I found some shreds of white meat left amongst the overly dry thighs? games Houston (20) at Cleveland (12): The Texans are getting healthy at the right time, and they?ve proven they?re a quality team when Andre Johnson, Ahman Green, and Matt Schaub are all playing. The Cleveland defense gives up more yards more consistently than any other team, but they have had a knack for toughening in the red zone and forcing FGs. The Texans settle for FGs in the red zone at a higher rate than all but 2 other teams. That means the Browns potent offense has a very good chance to outscore the Texans, especially considering how dependant upon the pass rush the Texans are in pass defense. The Browns OL gives up fewer QB hurries per pass attempt than any team in the league, and opposing DL have recorded just 4.5 sacks on QB Derek Anderson in 10 games. Given time, Anderson should have little trouble picking apart an inferior Houston secondary. Cleveland squashes the Texans 36-27. Buffalo (18) at Jacksonville (5): Nothing in any forecast model looks real positive for the Bills in this one, even with the loss of talented Jags LB Mike Peterson. Jacksonville is a very good team with David Garrard at QB, and he looked healthy last week in beating the Chargers. Something to consider about the Bills recent 4-game win streak, which New England snuffed Sunday night: the wins were over teams that have combined for 2 wins during those 4 weeks. The Bills don?t suck, but don?t read too much into their 5-5 record, because they haven?t beaten a team all year that will finish with more than 6 wins. Jacksonville rolls 33-13. Washington (17) at Tampa Bay (11): The reeling Ethnic Slurs will get an abject lesson in how to properly play a Cover-2 defense, something they clearly failed to do against the Cowboys last week. It doesn?t get much easier for the visitors this week, because Bucs QB Jeff Garcia plays an unorthodox style that?s hard to defend, and WR Joey Galloway can still get behind the defense as well as anyone. The way it looks right now, 7 wins might be enough for Tampa to win the NFC South, and this game should mark win #7. The loss of Sean Taylor and Carlos Rogers has turned a strong WAS secondary into a liability, and tough I like the progress of young QB Jason Campbell, he doesn?t have the bullets in the gun to win many shootouts. Tampa Bay 29, Washington 17. Minnesota (23) at New York Giants (6): After all the heaping accolades on Adrian Peterson, does anyone else find his results somewhat tempered by how well his backup, Chester Taylor, ran last week? You don?t get 225 total yards from your backup RB without the OL playing a major role, even if Taylor ranked as one of the more effective starters in the league last season. That OL gives them a puncher?s chance in this game, and I like the wrinkle of WR Sidney Rice throwing the ball. But Giants TE Jeremy Shockey is playing as well as he?s ever played, and the Giants pass rush has made life miserable for far more talented QBs than whomever the Vikings trot out under center. New York 20, Minnesota 17. The Rest, or ?everyone finally left but all that remains to eat is giblet gravy and wet cranberry sauce that nobody likes anyways? games Oakland (30) at Kansas City (19): The Marcus Allen Bowl has not been much of a rivalry lately, as the Chiefs have won 9 in a row in the bi-annual series. These two teams both play a conservative offensive style based on establishing the run, but the Chiefs have the advantage in both run defense and pass offense. KC also takes care of the ball much better, and the Raiders couldn?t beat the offensively-challenged Vikings last week despite forcing 5 turnovers. Something to note that could play a major role in slowing down the running for both teams: the Missouri/Kansas football game will be played in Arrowhead on Saturday, and that means the field will almost certainly be in awful condition. That greatly favors Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez and the Chiefs. The streak hits 10 in a row as the Chiefs win 20-10. San Francisco (31) at Arizona (14): The Cardinals are back to playing the solid, aggressive style of defense which propelled them early on, forcing turnovers and making life miserable for opposing RBs. If they can force Carson Palmer into 4 INTs and hold the high-powered Lions to -17 yards rushing, the 49ers stand little chance. However, this is the kind of game in which the Cardinals have struggled mightily the past few years in their quest for respect and an escape from futility--a game they should win against a reeling opponent. I think this Cards team just might be different, thanks to Coach Whisenhunt and a resurgent offensive line. Cardinals 27, 49ers 9. Miami (32) at Pittsburgh (7): Surely you don?t think the Steelers are going to overlook the lowly Dolphins after the debacle in the Meadowlands last week. Surely you don?t think Miami will notch its first win of the season in Pittsburgh, home of the best overall defense in the league, led by a rookie QB making his 2nd career start. Surely you don?t think Pittsburgh isn?t going to lose the AFC North lead, to hated Cleveland no less, by losing this one. I don?t think so either, and please stop calling me Shirley! Pittsburgh 27, Miami 3. Baltimore (27) at San Diego (13): Don?t be fooled by the Ravens 4-6 record--this is not a good football team at all. They?ve lost 4 in a row, and the two games they won immediately before that streak were a squeaker over the offensively embarrassing 49ers and a home win over a winless Rams team missing 9 starters. In those last 4 losses, the Ravens are -12 in turnover margin. They rank 31st in yards per play over the last month, and in the last 4 weeks they?ve converted just 25% of their 3rd down conversions, also 31st in the league and ahead of just the 49ers in both categories. San Diego has been up and down all season, but even when they?re down they?re better than the Ravens. San Diego 30, Baltimore 6. Denver (15) at Chicago (22): Chicago?s offense finally played well last week, only to have their defense get used and abused by the Seahawks. The biggest culprit is the flat-out awful play of the Bears safeties, which can neither tackle nor cover with any reliability. That?s a major problem when facing a QB like Jay Cutler, who can get outside the pocket and make magic down the field. The emergence of WR Brandon Stokeley gives Cutler the extra weapon he needed to elevate the Broncos offense. Denver?s rushing defense has quietly improved, shaving over half a yard per carry off their total in the last 4 weeks. There?s very little in this matchup that favors the Bears, though most of the advantages are pretty slight. So I?ll default to my coin-flipper axiom: in games that look even, pick the team with the better QB and K. That would be the Broncos on both counts. Denver 27, Chicago 24. New Orleans (21) at Carolina (24): Cue the tryptophan-induced nap any time the Panthers have the ball. Actually, one of the bigger surprises of Week 11 was how well the Panthers moved the ball despite missing the one difference-maker the team has on offense, WR Steve Smith, against a pretty strong Packers D no less. The Saints give up yards and big plays like a sleazy old guy in a bad suit gives up $1s at the strip club. All that would seem to conspire for a big day for Carolina?s beleaguered offense. The Saints offense is due for a breakout game themselves, and the Panthers defense struggles mightily with teams that spread the ball around to multiple WRs, and few do that better than Drew Brees and the Saints. The Panthers have not won at home in over a calendar year, and they?ve scored just 11 points per game during their 4-game bender. This one will be all about turnovers--the team with the positive turnover margin is almost certain to win. Since the Saints rank dead last in that category, the Panthers seem like the logical pick. But it?s an irrational time whenever Reddi-Whip is involved, and with the pumpkin pie on the table, this forecaster sees a lot of whip cream in his future. Not to mention a few Brees TD passes. New Orleans 30, Carolina 19. Tennessee (9) at Cincinnati (25): The Titans are clearly the better team, but there?s a couple of factors conspiring against them as they head to Cincy. First is the iffy status of DT Albert Haynesworth; the Titans defense ranks 2nd overall when he plays, but drops to 24th when he doesn?t. Second is the fact that Jeff Fisher is 1-9 in his last 10 games following an appearance on Monday Night Football. The short week is not a problem for the Bengals, who lost to the Cards because of a flukish bad game by QB Carson Palmer. I like the Bengals at home 33-25. Seattle (8) at St. Louis (26): The Rams have won two in a row and have looked good doing it. They can thank their stiffening run defense, which has done a much better job of containing their gaps and playing like a fluid unit. Seattle is still perhaps the most schizophrenic team in the league, but the ?happy place? Seahawks almost always show up when the Rams are the opponent. The key for the Seahawks is getting pressure on the QB, and that should be a huge advantage in this game for the visitors and their injury-ravaged OL. Seattle also does a very good job of taking care of the football, a big key in winning divisional road games like this one. Seattle slows down the improving Rams 27-13. Drinking in the Dorm Room game Last week was a glorious 2-2, thanks to the Buckeyes beating ?that team up north?, even though Ann Arbor is south of where I live. Some very meaningful games dominate the schedule this week. Missouri vs. Kansas:The Big 12 North title is on the line, and so is a potential berth in the BCS Title game. Kansas spreads the ball around to so many different players on offense, it makes them very difficult to defend. Missouri isn?t ranked so highly because of their defense, but rather their ability to light up the scoreboard behind QB Chase Daniel and electrifying freshman Jeremy Maclin. Missouri?s program is further along than Kansas? in terms of having played meaningful games and handling pressure, and I think that?s the difference here. Missouri 38, Kansas 30. Other games: Virginia Tech 22, Virginia 20--because I refuse to believe Al Groh can outcoach Frank Beamer. The Hokies head to the ACC title game. West Virginia 36, UConn 16--the Mountaineers stay very much in the picture for a BCS Title game berth by squashing the upstart Huskies Hawaii 40, Boise State 37--the home team stays in the mix for a BCS bowl. Jeff can be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com