Last Week: 9-5 and I had the Rams over the Chargers but didn?t trust my instincts. Season forecast is 51-41. Philadelphia (7) at Tennessee (8): I think too many people are making too big a deal of Andy Reid?s handling of his quarterbacks. I?ve never understood why it?s such a bad thing to ride the hot hand at QB, and those hands have been warmed as a result of injury, not ineffectiveness. I also don?t subscribe to the axiom ?if you have two quarterbacks then you don?t have one?. I would counter that if you don?t have two, you?re dancing with fire. Unless you?ve got a cinch Hall of Famer under center like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, I?ve never had a problem with a coach pulling an ineffective starter for a competent backup. Every QB has their off days; why sacrifice a game riding it out when you have another option? I think the negativity attributed to lost confidence is overplayed. The more established the starter, the longer the hook should be, but that hook shouldn?t be ignored like it too often is. Both these teams have two quarterbacks they can trust. Both also feature deep defensive fronts and aggressive scheming. I like the Titans OL better, and I like Chris Johnson over LeSean McCoy at RB. Even with the horribly overrated Cortland Finnegan at corner, I think Philly will struggle against the Titans pass defense without DeSean Jackson to open things up. Another feather in the Tennessee top hat: The Titans have won 17 of their last 20 against NFC teams, and are 9-1 in their last 10 at home against NFC East foes. That?s more than a trend, that?s ownership. Tennessee 23, Philadelphia 17. Washington (14) at Chicago (15): In my whimsical preseason prediction piece, I forecasted Redskins OLB Brian Orakpo as the NFL sack leader this season. This game should most certainly help him achieve that status. Bears QB Jay Cutler gets sacked nearly 3 times per quarter and is near the pace for the NFL single-season record for yardage lost due to sack (one of the few records Favre doesn?t hold--Randall Cunningham owns that one and three of the top-six). With Laron Landry playing at a Pro Bowl level, that should help the Skins D contain Matt Forte and force Cutler to throw. He seems to be reading coverages better and not throwing the boneheaded INTs, but it comes at the cost of getting hit almost every time he throws. That helps explain why the team has failed to convert 28 of its last 30 third downs--and one of those successes came via penalty. I?ve been (overly) bullish on the Redskins so far this year, but I really like Donovan McNabb at the controls of Mike Shanahan?s offense. I like it even more with all the nagging injuries on the Bears defense. Chicago will likely play better at home, but there are a lot of problems bubbling below the surface and ready to boil over. Windy City sports fans are fickle--overzealous in their praise but very quick to turn on the home team if they aren?t playing well. Washington has the ability to exploit the bad OL, the hit-and-miss pass defense, and force some turnovers. Washington 26, Chicago 21. Cincinnati (24) at Atlanta (10): This is another one of those games where I could break down matchups left and right, but my gut just screams ?Falcons?. I think they will bounce back from the humbling defeat in Philly with a renewed emphasis on their fundamental strengths: running the ball, play action throws to Gonzalez and White, pressuring the QB, avoiding penalties and turnovers. I think they?ll right their recent red zone woes, even against a stingy, rested Bengals defense. That rest came at a poor time for the Bengals. Normally, teams would like the breather if they?ve been struggling the way Cincy has, but this is a unique locker room with a lot of divergent parts tenuously held together. Letting that stew for an extra week only makes the fissures bigger and the fingers pointier, regardless of what they?re letting on in the media. A disciplined Atlanta team is not what the doctor ordered, not on the road. The gamblers like the Bengals a lot more than I do, as the line has moved from -4.5 to -3 at some books. I?ll still take the Falcons to cover. Atlanta 24, Cincinnati 17. St. Louis (16) at Tampa Bay (21): This might very well be the NFC Divisional Round matchup a year from now, but both teams still have some growth in store and holes to patch. The Rams have fewer of those holes, and they are perfectly constructed to exploit Tampa?s primary hole: run defense. The Bucs have given up an average of nearly 200 yards on the ground over the last three games, and Steven Jackson is as healthy as he?s been in years running behind an upgraded St. Louis line. I also like the Rams? stingy first quarter defense (allowed just one FG all year) to get them an early lead against a Bucs offense that has produced just 10 first quarter points in 5 games. As the Rams proved last week, once they get a lead they are a dangerous defense, and they have the ability to eat clock offensively. St. Louis shocks the world by going to 4-3 with a 24-16 road win over the Bucs. Pittsburgh (1) at Miami (13): Ben Roethlisberger?s return was relatively humdrum. He handled his emotions, torched the Browns erratic secondary with few signs of rust, and he stayed humble and team-centric in dealing with the media and fans. That?s pretty much what everyone should have expected. Now he has to deal with a road game and enemy fans that won?t hold back in unloading on him. I think this is a week where his teammates show Roethelisberger they?ve got his back. The Pittsburgh run defense is flat-out awesome, and Miami relies heavily on the run and play action to move the chains. The Pittsburgh OL is playing out of their minds, with Maurkice Pouncey a legit Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. I don?t believe the threat of a fine or suspension will deter James Harrison from his headhunting ways, though Jake Long might have something to say about it. I just don?t see Miami being able to outscore the Steelers, even if they get an early lead. One of the things that makes Roethlisberger special is his ability to create and thrive in clutch situations, even in the midst of a bad overall outing. Steelers win on a late FG, 20-17. Minnesota (17) at Green Bay (20): Can we please stop crowning Aaron Rodgers as an elite QB already? Elite QBs turn their games up a notch when the game is on the line, but Rodgers goes in the opposite direction. His 4th quarter QB rating is just 69.8, or over 40 points lower than the other 3 quarters. He has thrown all seven of his INTs while the game margin was within six points one way or the other, and his yards per attempt in those situations are nearly two yards lower as well. Don?t get me wrong, Rodgers is still a very good QB and the arrow is pointing up, but let?s wait until he starts consistently elevating his game in the clutch before putting him in the pantheon with Peyton, Tom and Drew. A better OL and any semblance of a running game wouldn?t hurt him, nor would having a full complement of players around him, but those aren?t going to change anytime soon. I like the Vikings, who are the better team right now. Vikings 27, Packers 20. Cleveland (30) at New Orleans (6): I was relatively impressed with Colt McCoy?s debut for the Browns. He made strong throws and wasn?t intimidated by Pittsburgh?s defensive awesomeness. I have a feeling this week might be a little harder, believe it or not. Aside from having his top two wideouts questionable with concussions thanks to James Harrison, the Saints do more mixing and disguising of coverages behind their barrage of pass rush packages than Pittsburgh does. That means INTs, and the Saints DBs are still the best at creating those and knowing what to do once they get the ball. I also really like Drew Brees to carve up a secondary that has talent but still has far too many communication gaffes. The bookies put this number and margin right where I expected: Saints by 14, +/- at 43.5. That says the Saints win either 30-13 or 28-16, your choice! Jacksonville (18) at Kansas City (12): Two reasons why the Chiefs are 3-2 and in first place: they lead the league in rushing yardage differential, and they lead the league in penalty yardage differential. In short, they dominate the line of scrimmage and don?t beat themselves. Jacksonville has QB issues, with David Garrard both woozy and ineffective and Trent Edwards still learning the system. The Chiefs are vulnerable to strong air attacks (see: Houston) but, alas that is not the Jaguars? forte. Good time to use KC in your Survivor Fantasy game like I am this week. Chiefs 27, Jaguars 13. Oakland (28) at Denver (23): The inanimate object meets the moveable force as the Broncos sorry excuse for a running game faces off against the tissue-paper Oakland rushing defense. This is Denver?s first game against a team with a losing record, and they?ve been competitive in every game except the debacle against Seattle. The Raiders appeared listless with Jason Campbell at QB in place of injured Bruce Gradkowski, and I watched their wideouts make far too many mistakes. I don?t like singling out coaching (much), but if ever a team needed to make a positional coaching change, it?s Oakland and their receivers coach. Even though Oakland has won the last two in Denver, I like the Broncos and their high-flying offense to prevail. Denver 31, Oakland 20. Buffalo (31) at Baltimore (4): Normally, I like the concept of winless teams taking advantage of coming off a bye week to break the seal. Not this time. Baltimore just has too much on both sides of the ball for Buffalo, which by my guesstimation has exactly six starters that would play regularly for the Ravens, and three of those are in the secondary. Ravens in a 27-6 yawner. San Francisco (29) at Carolina (32): As stated above with the Bills, I?m normally a big backer of winless teams coming off bye weeks. But where the Bills got a brutal draw with the Ravens, the Panthers get a home date with the 1-5 49ers. Matt Moore returns as the starting QB, which should help improve the downfield threat, and Steve Smith also gets back in the lineup for Carolina. I get the sense in communicating with some Panthers players and staffers that they are refreshed and aren?t feeling hopeless or negative. The Carolina D has played reasonably well and forces takeaways, and San Francisco is a league-worst -8 in turnover margin. The hungry cat gets to eat in what figures to be one of the biggest dog games of the season. Carolina 17, San Francisco 16. NY Giants (9) at Dallas (25): There are two ways to look at the Cowboys in their current situation. Either they are really overdue for a breakout performance, or they will keep creating new ways to lose games. And with the Giants being so incredibly hit or miss, it makes this game a real difficult forecast. I am going to side with the ?overdues? here; Dallas is overdue for a strong overall game and a cathartic win, and the Giants are a bit overdue for one of their patented epic tank jobs. I like the three safety look that the Giants have flashed recently, but the gut says Dallas. Big. Cowboys 33, Giants 10. New England (3) at San Diego (22): Much like the Cowboys, you can look at the Chargers and believe they are either going to erupt for a dominating win or piss away another strong performance from Philip Rivers. I?m leaning towards the former, and the Pats? egregious young secondary is the primary reason. As disappointing as San Diego has been, they have been very good at home and they have thrown the ball for big numbers against vastly better pass defenses than New England?s. If you are a fan of the Pythagorean Theorem of projected win totals based on point differential, you love the Chargers in this one. Despite being 2-4 they have the league?s 5th best point margin--and 1st overall at home. I?ll buy into the stat geeks for this one, though it?s worth noting that 1-5 Detroit has a better point differential than 8 teams that have at least 3 wins. Chargers 33, Patriots 30. Arizona (19) at Seattle (26): The winner here seizes control of their NFC West destiny. Let that sink in for a moment...now back to the game. Seattle has shown they can and will blitz without abandon at vulnerable offensive lines, and Arizona doesn?t exactly have a great one of those. Rookie QB Max Hall stole a win against the Saints, but I chalk that one up to great luck; the Cards didn?t score an offensive TD. They might not in this one either. Seattle 27, Arizona 9. Byes: Houston (11), Detroit (27), Indianapolis (5), NY Jets (2) Drinking in the Dorm Room games: Last week: 5-0 baby! I?d been 4-1 every other week. Great slate of games on the college docket: Auburn 27, LSU 24. War Eagle! Nebraska 33, Oklahoma State 29, because OSU always loses games like these. Iowa 20, Wisconsin 17. Great game to scout DE?s JJ Watt (Badgers) and Adrian Clayborn (Hawkeyes). Northwestern 29, Michigan State 28, because MSU always loses games like these. Missouri 32, Oklahoma 30. #1 falls again! Bonus pick of local interest: SFA 31, SHSU 28. Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com